Originally posted by Nag':
Good work, KJDuke. I don't have time to examine or discuss right now but I want to leave with this point. If 3RR's intention was to "level the playing" field between the draft slots, based on this season, it has not done so. Not even a bit. You can blame injuries or Brady/Moss or whatever but the bottom line is the bottom line. Also, I think it is safe to assume based on the standings that if the top slots had even better FF production from their top players, they would dominate similarly to 2005/2006. The one thing 3RR did do is create the perception of draft slot equality. But if the above is all true, how long before people realize that the perception of 3RR's equality isn't supported by actual results and the top slots are still the most coveteds? And when this occurs - and it could occur as soon as next season - what has been achieved? Nag and Felix, I think you are missing the main point above. 3RR creates not just the perception, but the OPPORTUNITY to draft a stronger team with a top pick in round 3. Whether or not those end slot teams actually make the better pick in round 3 will determine if those teams end up stronger or not.
All 3RR can do is give them a chance to draft a better team, nothing can guarantee their results will be better, which is why I think the frequent discussion on where the slots rank in the standings is irrelevant.
The second point is that a top or bottom slot really comes down to changing one or two picks for the most part, in terms of value, in rds 3-4. And if the 13 and 14 slot teams take one guy that gets hurt or blows it, their results will be better not worse, and that cannot be "blamed" on 3RR. The skill or luck of the drafter always overwhelms the effect of 3RR.
And finally, the major point of 3RR is that allows all teams more say in their draft strategy, while also giving them the OPPORTUBNITY to draft another better player.
3RR impact
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Tom Kessenich
- Posts: 29360
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR impact
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
Good work, KJDuke. I don't have time to examine or discuss right now but I want to leave with this point. If 3RR's intention was to "level the playing" field between the draft slots, based on this season, it has not done so. Not even a bit. You can blame injuries or Brady/Moss or whatever but the bottom line is the bottom line. Also, I think it is safe to assume based on the standings that if the top slots had even better FF production from their top players, they would dominate similarly to 2005/2006. The one thing 3RR did do is create the perception of draft slot equality. But if the above is all true, how long before people realize that the perception of 3RR's equality isn't supported by actual results and the top slots are still the most coveteds? And when this occurs - and it could occur as soon as next season - what has been achieved? Nag and Felix, I think you are missing the main point above. 3RR creates not just the perception, but the OPPORTUNITY to draft a stronger team with a top pick in round 3. Whether or not those end slot teams actually make the better pick in round 3 will determine if those teams end up stronger or not.
All 3RR can do is give them a chance to draft a better team, nothing can guarantee their results will be better, which is why I think the frequent discussion on where the slots rank in the standings is irrelevant.
The second point is that a top or bottom slot really comes down to changing one or two picks for the most part, in terms of value, in rds 3-4. And if the 13 and 14 slot teams take one guy that gets hurt or blows it, their results will be better not worse, and that cannot be "blamed" on 3RR. The skill or luck of the drafter always overwhelms the effect of 3RR.
And finally, the major point of 3RR is that allows all teams more say in their draft strategy, while also giving them the OPPORTUBNITY to draft another better player. [/QUOTE]Another good post. The "opportunity" issue is critical. Ultimately, that's what it boils down to in fantasy football. There is no perfect system that can be implemented that will guarantee you make the right pick. Just ask the owners who were pretty damn happy to get Steve Smith or Marvin Harrison this season. Didn't those look like great picks at the time? Of course they did. But the season has a way of doing curious things to your draft.
But at least if you have the opportunity to draft good players you're ahead of the game on Draft Day. What 3RR does, again, is give that opportunity in the third round for an owner to add an elite talent to his roster, rather than the teams with early picks adding a second elite talent to join their first.
Nothing guarantees you'll make the right pick and nothing guarantees that even if you pick a great player he'll have a great season. That's why the games are played and all that. But with 3RR, if you're picking at the backend of the first round at least you have the opportunity to add talent to your roster that you previously were unable to.
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
Good work, KJDuke. I don't have time to examine or discuss right now but I want to leave with this point. If 3RR's intention was to "level the playing" field between the draft slots, based on this season, it has not done so. Not even a bit. You can blame injuries or Brady/Moss or whatever but the bottom line is the bottom line. Also, I think it is safe to assume based on the standings that if the top slots had even better FF production from their top players, they would dominate similarly to 2005/2006. The one thing 3RR did do is create the perception of draft slot equality. But if the above is all true, how long before people realize that the perception of 3RR's equality isn't supported by actual results and the top slots are still the most coveteds? And when this occurs - and it could occur as soon as next season - what has been achieved? Nag and Felix, I think you are missing the main point above. 3RR creates not just the perception, but the OPPORTUNITY to draft a stronger team with a top pick in round 3. Whether or not those end slot teams actually make the better pick in round 3 will determine if those teams end up stronger or not.
All 3RR can do is give them a chance to draft a better team, nothing can guarantee their results will be better, which is why I think the frequent discussion on where the slots rank in the standings is irrelevant.
The second point is that a top or bottom slot really comes down to changing one or two picks for the most part, in terms of value, in rds 3-4. And if the 13 and 14 slot teams take one guy that gets hurt or blows it, their results will be better not worse, and that cannot be "blamed" on 3RR. The skill or luck of the drafter always overwhelms the effect of 3RR.
And finally, the major point of 3RR is that allows all teams more say in their draft strategy, while also giving them the OPPORTUBNITY to draft another better player. [/QUOTE]Another good post. The "opportunity" issue is critical. Ultimately, that's what it boils down to in fantasy football. There is no perfect system that can be implemented that will guarantee you make the right pick. Just ask the owners who were pretty damn happy to get Steve Smith or Marvin Harrison this season. Didn't those look like great picks at the time? Of course they did. But the season has a way of doing curious things to your draft.
But at least if you have the opportunity to draft good players you're ahead of the game on Draft Day. What 3RR does, again, is give that opportunity in the third round for an owner to add an elite talent to his roster, rather than the teams with early picks adding a second elite talent to join their first.
Nothing guarantees you'll make the right pick and nothing guarantees that even if you pick a great player he'll have a great season. That's why the games are played and all that. But with 3RR, if you're picking at the backend of the first round at least you have the opportunity to add talent to your roster that you previously were unable to.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
3RR impact
Nag' and others who don't like 3RR.
Why?
I can't see picking at 14 as being anything but bad. When doing KDS without 3RR.
What did you put 1-14. Anything else and your crazy.
Now it evens the playing field.
Why wouldn't you want that?
[ November 21, 2007, 10:05 AM: Message edited by: Raiders ]
Why?
I can't see picking at 14 as being anything but bad. When doing KDS without 3RR.
What did you put 1-14. Anything else and your crazy.
Now it evens the playing field.
Why wouldn't you want that?
[ November 21, 2007, 10:05 AM: Message edited by: Raiders ]
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Route Collectors
- Posts: 3525
- Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR impact
Originally posted by renman:
To me, STATS wont tell us anything regarding 3RR. The teams who pick the players who explode will always do better and the teams that pick the players that are busts will fail. I think we can all now finally admit that we cannot predict with much certainty who those players will be or where on a draft board they will fall.
What 3RR does is provides a SENSE OF CONTROL over ones draft position and that provides piece of mind. It takes away the SENSE this is all about luck. These are good things that likely appeal to fantasy players. Good post renman. That pretty much sums it up for me. Auctions may never be challenged IMO for draft equality but I still like the change to KDS..3RR from a strategic viewpoint.
Picking the players who will "explode" as you said will always be the key. Too bad S.Smith wasn't one of those players for us this year.
To me, STATS wont tell us anything regarding 3RR. The teams who pick the players who explode will always do better and the teams that pick the players that are busts will fail. I think we can all now finally admit that we cannot predict with much certainty who those players will be or where on a draft board they will fall.
What 3RR does is provides a SENSE OF CONTROL over ones draft position and that provides piece of mind. It takes away the SENSE this is all about luck. These are good things that likely appeal to fantasy players. Good post renman. That pretty much sums it up for me. Auctions may never be challenged IMO for draft equality but I still like the change to KDS..3RR from a strategic viewpoint.
Picking the players who will "explode" as you said will always be the key. Too bad S.Smith wasn't one of those players for us this year.
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sportsbettingman
- Posts: 1805
- Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:00 pm
3RR impact
Good stuff KJ and the rest.
I agree about the opportunity rationale.
Add to that a more pleasant draft slot announcement experience, and you have a winner.
~Lance
I agree about the opportunity rationale.
Add to that a more pleasant draft slot announcement experience, and you have a winner.
~Lance
"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."
~Long John Silver
~Long John Silver
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ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR impact
Great stuff KJ.
Even better stuff Todd.
KJ, a slight problem with using ADP as the draft dynamics in 3rr are not the same as w/o it.
That round 2 choice for the lower picks is simply not the auto pilot pick it was before knowing you'd get a stud to start rd 3 also.
As Tom mentioned a few days ago, and I said from Day 1, 3rr is not about LT.
Pick #1-3 are no longer auto pilot picks for the first three rounds. Difficult decisions must be made on picks in Rd 2 and 3, which is the same as all the other picks now. For that reason only, 3rr is a HUGE success.
Even better stuff Todd.
KJ, a slight problem with using ADP as the draft dynamics in 3rr are not the same as w/o it.
That round 2 choice for the lower picks is simply not the auto pilot pick it was before knowing you'd get a stud to start rd 3 also.
As Tom mentioned a few days ago, and I said from Day 1, 3rr is not about LT.
Pick #1-3 are no longer auto pilot picks for the first three rounds. Difficult decisions must be made on picks in Rd 2 and 3, which is the same as all the other picks now. For that reason only, 3rr is a HUGE success.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
3RR impact
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
Good work, KJDuke. I don't have time to examine or discuss right now but I want to leave with this point. If 3RR's intention was to "level the playing" field between the draft slots, based on this season, it has not done so. Not even a bit. You can blame injuries or Brady/Moss or whatever but the bottom line is the bottom line. Also, I think it is safe to assume based on the standings that if the top slots had even better FF production from their top players, they would dominate similarly to 2005/2006. The one thing 3RR did do is create the perception of draft slot equality. But if the above is all true, how long before people realize that the perception of 3RR's equality isn't supported by actual results and the top slots are still the most coveteds? And when this occurs - and it could occur as soon as next season - what has been achieved? Nag and Felix, I think you are missing the main point above.
And finally, the major point of 3RR is that allows all teams more say in their draft strategy, while also giving them the OPPORTUBNITY to draft another better player. [/QUOTE]I think I hit your point exactly, the only thing someone missed by drafting 14th is having no chance at certain first round players. Then they had a bunch of chances to draft everyone in the NFL minus about 13 guy. Their opportunity is limited only by a couple of guys, the 3RR gives them a quick 3rd round pick.
With the 14th and 15th overall pick they could have had Brady and Moss, the opportunity is there for anyone to win from any position, 3RR just creates perception and opportunity. The results won't reflect it until there is a year where ADP = Reality, which will be never.
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
Good work, KJDuke. I don't have time to examine or discuss right now but I want to leave with this point. If 3RR's intention was to "level the playing" field between the draft slots, based on this season, it has not done so. Not even a bit. You can blame injuries or Brady/Moss or whatever but the bottom line is the bottom line. Also, I think it is safe to assume based on the standings that if the top slots had even better FF production from their top players, they would dominate similarly to 2005/2006. The one thing 3RR did do is create the perception of draft slot equality. But if the above is all true, how long before people realize that the perception of 3RR's equality isn't supported by actual results and the top slots are still the most coveteds? And when this occurs - and it could occur as soon as next season - what has been achieved? Nag and Felix, I think you are missing the main point above.
And finally, the major point of 3RR is that allows all teams more say in their draft strategy, while also giving them the OPPORTUBNITY to draft another better player. [/QUOTE]I think I hit your point exactly, the only thing someone missed by drafting 14th is having no chance at certain first round players. Then they had a bunch of chances to draft everyone in the NFL minus about 13 guy. Their opportunity is limited only by a couple of guys, the 3RR gives them a quick 3rd round pick.
With the 14th and 15th overall pick they could have had Brady and Moss, the opportunity is there for anyone to win from any position, 3RR just creates perception and opportunity. The results won't reflect it until there is a year where ADP = Reality, which will be never.
3RR impact
Actually I forgot to suggest, can't we just change it to 1RR? Then a lot of people would like the 14th pick.
3RR impact
Originally posted by JohnZ:
KJ, a slight problem with using ADP as the draft dynamics in 3rr are not the same as w/o it.
That round 2 choice for the lower picks is simply not the auto pilot pick it was before knowing you'd get a stud to start rd 3 also.
As Tom mentioned a few days ago, and I said from Day 1, 3rr is not about LT.
Pick #1-3 are no longer auto pilot picks for the first three rounds. Difficult decisions must be made on picks in Rd 2 and 3, which is the same as all the other picks now. For that reason only, 3rr is a HUGE success. Agreed on all fronts John. Using ADP is not perfect, but it is the best we have in terms of being able to analyze the impact. As Lance said on the other thread, every pick affects every other pick, so a perfect what-if can never be done. The analysis I did was to give a reasonable assessment and shift the focus away from things that have NOTHING to do with 3RR impact.
Todd, very nice job explaining the theoretical impact.
KJ, a slight problem with using ADP as the draft dynamics in 3rr are not the same as w/o it.
That round 2 choice for the lower picks is simply not the auto pilot pick it was before knowing you'd get a stud to start rd 3 also.
As Tom mentioned a few days ago, and I said from Day 1, 3rr is not about LT.
Pick #1-3 are no longer auto pilot picks for the first three rounds. Difficult decisions must be made on picks in Rd 2 and 3, which is the same as all the other picks now. For that reason only, 3rr is a HUGE success. Agreed on all fronts John. Using ADP is not perfect, but it is the best we have in terms of being able to analyze the impact. As Lance said on the other thread, every pick affects every other pick, so a perfect what-if can never be done. The analysis I did was to give a reasonable assessment and shift the focus away from things that have NOTHING to do with 3RR impact.
Todd, very nice job explaining the theoretical impact.
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Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 35891
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
3RR impact
Originally posted by Route C:
[QB] quote:Good post renman. [/QUOTE]It must be the holiday season when you see this coming from Route C!!
[QB] quote:Good post renman. [/QUOTE]It must be the holiday season when you see this coming from Route C!!
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius