Originally posted by King of Queens:
quote:Originally posted by Liquid Hippo:
quote:Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
The comparison to Peyton Manning is absurd.If you would be so kind, could you post specifically the comparison you speak of(or simply point me to it, I searched this thread and could not find any Peyton/Tebow comparison) and what you found so absurd about it? Did the poster state that Tebow was better than Peyton Manning? That they were on equal footing? Did they post or state something that was factually incorrect?
thanks [/QUOTE]Fishing trip? 
http://nffcboards.stats.com/cgi-bin/ult ... 166#000002 [/QUOTE]From Tim Tebow vs.Peyton Manning :
Originally posted by Liquid Hippo:
Through the first four starts of their careers:
Tim Tebow - 812 Passing Yards, 6 TD's, 3 INT's, 264 Rushing Yards, 3 Rushing TD's, 2 Wins, 2 Losses
Peyton Manning - 992 Passing Yards, 3 TD's, 11 INT's, 33 Rushing Yards, 0 Rushing TD's, 0 Wins, 4 Losses Classic case of an apples to oranges comparison, in my hopefully-not-coming-across-too-arrogant opinion.
First of all, regarding the wins/losses. IMO, this is probably where most of the excitement for Tebow comes from. He IS exciting to watch and leading his team to victories when behind is very good for his NFL team. But for fantasy purposes, it doesn't really matter WHEN in the game he scores or IF his team wins or loses. But I suspect that the emotional draw many feel for him comes from this "gamer" trait more than his fantasy potential going forward.
Rather than just combining those first 4 games for each player, let's take a look at the detailed game logs:
Manning's first 4 starts: Passing Rushing
G# Date Opp Result Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Att Yds TD
1 9/6/1998 MIA L 15-24 21 37 56.80% 302 1 3 0 0 0
2 9/13/1998 NE L 6-29 21 33 63.60% 188 1 3 0 0 0
3 9/20/1998 NYJ L 6-44 20 44 45.50% 193 0 2 3 26 0
4 9/27/1998 NO L 13-19 19 32 59.40% 309 1 3 1 7 0
Tebow's first 4 starts: Passing Rushing
G# Date Opp Result Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Att Yds TD
14 12/19/2010 OAK L 23-39 8 16 50.00% 138 1 0 8 78 1
15 12/26/2010 HOU W 24-23 16 29 55.20% 308 1 1 10 27 1
16 1/2/2011 SD L 28-33 16 36 44.40% 205 2 2 13 94 1
6 10/23/2011 MIA W 18-15 13 27 48.10% 161 2 0 8 65 0
Manning's first 4 starts were actually the first 4 games of his ROOKIE season. He didn't get to watch the first 13 games from the sideline or attend an extra 3+ months of practices first or watch 3+ months of game film from that season, etc., like Tebow did (who didn't start until game 14 last year).
How about completion percentage those first 4 games? Manning: 55.5%. Tebow: 49.1%.
Yes, Manning threw a lot more picks. But WHY? Coupled with a lot less practice experience, how about the strength of defenses faced in those games?
Manning
Game 1: MIA, a 10-6 team that year, who allowed 265 points (16.6 PPG), 1st in the NFL. Their league rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints was 6th, 3rd and 1st, respectively. Throwing for over 300 yards vs. a defense this good in his first NFL start is pretty remarkable, even with the 3 picks.
Game 2: NE, 9-7, who was a respectable if not stellar defense, that allowed 329 points (20.6 PPG), 14th. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 25th, 24th and 2nd.
Game 3: NYJ, 12-4, allowed 266 points (16.6 PPG), 2nd. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 9th, 2nd and 4th.
Game 4: NO, 6-10, allowed 359 points (22.4 PPG), 21st. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 30th, 21st and 4th.
*** These teams were the league leaders in interceptions in 1998. So it shouldn't be hard to understand why Manning threw 11 picks against them in the first 4 starts of his rookie season.
Tebow
2010
Game 14: OAK, eventually an 8-8 team, allowed 371 points (23.2 PPG), 20th. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 2nd, 28th, 25th. League rank vs. rushing yards, TDs: 29th, 20th.
Game 15: HOU, eventually a 6-10 team, allowed 427 points (26.7 PPG), 29th. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 32nd, 31st, 23rd. League rank vs. rushing yards, TDs: 13th, 26th.
Game 16: SD, eventually a 9-7 team, allowed 322 points (20.1 PPG), 10th. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 1st, 5th, 14th. League rank vs. rushing yards, TDs: 4th, 20th. [But as I already pointed out earlier in this thread, SD's star LB, Stephen Cooper (team-leading 297 tackles from 2007-10), was placed on I/R after 14 games last year. And in addition to Tebow running well vs. the Chargers in week 17, in week 16 (also without Cooper), SD allowed the Bengals duo RBs of Benson/Scott to run for 102 yds and 1 TD. But in the prior two games to that, SF and KC were shut down running, for just 55 and 49 yards, respectively. IOW, this was a very good run D that Tebow got to face without their best tackler.]
2011
Game 6: MIA, an 0-6 team, allowed 146 points (24.3 PPG), 22nd. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 21st, 29th, 30th. League rank vs. rushing yards, TDs: 20th, 7th.
*** Except for San Diego (which IMO still has an * due to Cooper missing), these defenses were among the worst in the league.
Yes, Tebow is a dynamic rusher and Manning is a statue. But look at how weak the run defenses Tebow has faced were. Granted, he'll get to face a few weak run defenses the rest of this year too. But he'll also face several mid-range and a few very good run Ds. This is why I believe he won't be able to sustain his past rushing pace. And without those rushing stats, I think it's clear that he won't be a top-10 fantasy QB based on his passing.
Now please tell me again how arrogant I am because I try to backup my opinions with data and remind me again that I just hate him because of his religious beliefs (extra credit if you can find a single mention of that in the text above ) or that I want to see him fail because he's such a nice guy (and I'm probably jealous or some other such nonsense). :rolleyes:
[ October 30, 2011, 09:31 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
I was making a case NOT to wait on a QB (which we don't). My contention was that for those who do, when a top QB comes available off waivers (like Vick did last year), they get a much-needed upgrade. What am I missing? That is exactly my point. If you feel people can easily get an upgrade at QB on the waiver wire each year, WHY would you take a QB early (like you say you do) instead of just picking that guy up each year?? 