Friday Chat Has Commenced

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:30 am

Tom, I hate to go over this draft again online, but I have to be prepared for Caplan tonight. I need a dress rehearsal from all the boys here. Remember 8th pick out of 12 teams:

1. Edgerrin James. Can't argue with that.
2. Marshall Faulk. Here it comes!!!
3. Chad Johnson. 32nd overall. Sweeeeeet.
4. Warrick Dunn. 1 point per reception makes sense.
5. Steven Jackson. Here it comes!!!
6. Koren Robinson. 65th overall??? Gotta love it.
7. Brett Favre. Homer pick, right? NOT!!!
8. Ron Dayne. Hey, he scored last night.
9. Kevin Johnson. Value at 10th.
10. Jerry Rice. Hey, he's almost my age.
11. Moe Williams. Oooooh, sorry Onterio Smith.
12. Tyrone Calico. Good upside.
13. Jake Delhomme. Backup QB.
14. Daniel Graham. The rules say you need a TE.

Give it to me.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:33 am

Gordon, mainly auction football leagues use a $10 per pick format. It's not written in stone, but that's pretty common. When we changed the NFFC from 20 players per team to 18, I didn't feel it was right to change the Auction League from $200 to $180 and I certainly didn't think making it $198 made sense, since obviously those last two picks are $1 picks. So I made the Auction League a much deeper player pool because you guys will be very prepared for this. I hope it doesn't hurt the FAAB season, but we'll see.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:41 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Tom, I hate to go over this draft again online, but I have to be prepared for Caplan tonight. I need a dress rehearsal from all the boys here. Remember 8th pick out of 12 teams:

1. Edgerrin James. Can't argue with that.Best RB on the board given Lewis' legal entanglements.

2. Marshall Faulk. Here it comes!!!Yup, but the 1 point/reception made him too good to pass up. Look at how well he finished last season for how good he can still be. If there wasn't a 1 point/reception rule, Dillon would've been a safer pick, but that bonus made Faulk worth it.

3. Chad Johnson. 32nd overall. Sweeeeeet.
Slam dunk pick.

4. Warrick Dunn. 1 point per reception makes sense.

Yup. You now have 3 RBs who will contribute heavily in this area.

5. Steven Jackson. Here it comes!!!

It's at least a round early, but that's the downside of a handcuff; you often have to do this to secure it. But now you have the Rams RB as your RB2 all season long. That's going to give you tremendous production.

6. Koren Robinson. 65th overall??? Gotta love it.

Agree. Very good value here.

7. Brett Favre. Homer pick, right? NOT!!!

I honestly don't know why he's downgraded so much by other experts. The fact of the matter is he was the best QB on the board. He threw less last season and still led the NFL in TD passes. Sorry folks, but this is GREAT value for Favre. Tell 'em John Hansen agrees.

8. Ron Dayne. Hey, he scored last night.

It's a flyer, but Dayne has a major opportunity here and if he comes through you have nice depth at RB.

9. Kevin Johnson. Value at 10th.

It's not a sexy pick, but he's the No. 1 WR (granted the Ravens' passing game will probably stink). He should be good for at least 60 receptions which is nice value with the 1 point/reception rule.

10. Jerry Rice. Hey, he's almost my age.

And still caught 63 passes last season. I guarantee he'll outperform a lot of the "upside" WRs who went before him. He's nothing special anymore, but he's a solid depth choice.

11. Moe Williams. Oooooh, sorry Onterio Smith.

Yea that pick looks a helluva lot better now than it did during the draft. You're welcome.

12. Tyrone Calico. Good upside.

Definitely an upside pick. But even if he remains the No. 3 WR in Tennessee, he could get 6-8 TDs. That makes him a very nice bye week replacement.

13. Jake Delhomme. Backup QB.

Top 15 QB this season. Mark my words.

14. Daniel Graham. The rules say you need a TE.

Yup. He's in a good offense and he has great talent. If he conquers his problem with drops, he'll be a fine fantasy TE. If not, cut him and find a decent one on the Waiver Wire.

[ August 20, 2004, 03:47 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:50 am

Originally posted by myassisonthefence:
Since August 17th, new signps are being greeted with "Good luck for the overall grand prize" instead of "Good luck for the $200,000." What should a fence sitter infer from this? Very simple. Greg has said it over and over. If they are close, then the prizes will remain, even with a tolerable loss. The event will take place no matter what the final numbers are. Worst case, the prizes will be adjusted to make the loss reasonable.

We players are hoping that you fence sitters stay home so we can get better pot odds.

Edited to add:

But we players also want to ensure that Klause management is pleased enough to continue this thing. So, we players are sort of torn about where our self-interest lies

[ August 20, 2004, 03:52 PM: Message edited by: JerseyPaul ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:58 am

Great question MyAssIsOnTheFence. You wouldn't happen to be a friendly voice from another contest, would you?

Honestly, a friendly voice from another high-stakes contest called me this week and basically said that once I posted that we had just over 150 FULLY PAID entrants in the NFFC, that it would be impossible to reach a level where we could guarantee the $200,000 grand prize. I stated that there was still time to reach that level, especially with other contests folding and people looking for last minute options. With the NFFC being in three cities, we still have a very good chance of getting people who can drive to New York, Chicago and even Las Vegas.

But the reality of the situation is that if you do the math, we need a lot of signups in these last 10 days to reach a level that will guarantee that grand prize. We are working with Grogan's to get the entrants they had coming to Las Vegas for the World Fantasy Tour to join the NFFC and we're working with another company to get even more signups who have already committed to play at this level. So we're moving forward honestly.

We are at a level now where our NFBC event finished and we offered a $100,000 grand prize to those participants. I've said it many times this week that a worst case scenario appears to be a six-figure grand prize and 200+ teams, but even the better odds can scare people away. So maybe honesty isn't the best policy, but that's the only way we know how to operate around here.

We had over 40 signups over the last week for the NFBC and the interest for the NFFC far exceeds our baseball event. I still feel strongly that all you fence sitters out there will put your trust in us and play in the NFFC and you know we'll do right by you (baseball participants got back over 90 percent of the prize pool).

But I also don't want to mislead anyone, so I'll wish everyone best of luck in the hunt for the grand prize and the league prizes and continue to work hard to ensure everyone's trust in the NFFC over these last two weeks. And you already have my phone number, so you can call me again anytime you want about our prize structure as you know I'll be honest about it.

chich · Post by **chich** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 9:58 am

I was originally looking at Staley as a decent flex/backup player that could produce like a #2 back. Now with the loss of their starting guard, with all the line problems they had last year and without a solid backup, I don't think there's any choice but to downgrade him and the other Steelers. Ward should still produce, but probably not as much as with a solid running attack.
Thoughts?

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 10:00 am

The optimal number for everyone really is 602. From an expected value standpoint the optimal number for the players is whatever threshold must be passed for the prize structure to remain intact. But, we should all be rooting for a full event because:

(1) The class shown by Krause and the “good will” created by taking a loss on the NFBC
(2) The more people that are in this year the stronger the probability of this event remaining successful for years to come

I for one e-mailed everyone from every football and baseball league I’m in today promoting the event (about 50 hardcore fantasy players total.) I think we all should consider doing the same.

By the way Greg at what rate are sign-ups still coming in? Is that final 10-day push hit yet?

[ August 20, 2004, 04:05 PM: Message edited by: nnoy ]

myassisonthefence · Post by **myassisonthefence** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 10:05 am

We'll talk early next week, Greg. I'm probably in...

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 10:06 am

chich, I'm not a big Staley guy. If I could get him at a good value I would consider him (especially in the NFFC), but I have a hunch he'll go higher than I would prefer to take him - especially when you consider 854-year-old Jerome Bettis will still probably get a fair share of the attempts near the goal line.

I like the Steelers' passing game, though. Ward's a stud and Burress has had a good camp and appears poised for a bounceback season. Amazing what being in a contract year will do for ya, ain't it?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 10:07 am

Originally posted by myassisonthefence:
We'll talk early next week, Greg. I'm probably in... Just an FYI (and nathan since you're talking to all of your hardcore players), we are paying $100 for each referral you can send to us. So Nathan, if you were to get all of those 50 folks to sign up, that would be an extra $5,000 coming your way. Some additional food for thought for everyone.