Greg/Tom,
To be honest, the Brady/Moss information is STUNNING when you really look at it on the surface. With the way those guys were going off everyone was fair in assuming Moss/Brady owners had a massive advantage. It is amazing to look back and see the advantage was minimal. I remember in week 2-3 whining here about how Brady to Moss combined with the Pats running up the score was going to destroy fantasy leagues across the land....
Apparently I was wrong...
Where Did NFFC Champs Draft From In 2007?
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aageorgiou
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Where Did NFFC Champs Draft From In 2007?
One other point. I think you can win your league following the Brady strategy yet winning the whole thing ($100K) with this strategy would be very, very difficult
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Greg Ambrosius
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Where Did NFFC Champs Draft From In 2007?
Originally posted by renman:
Greg/Tom,
To be honest, the Brady/Moss information is STUNNING when you really look at it on the surface. With the way those guys were going off everyone was fair in assuming Moss/Brady owners had a massive advantage. It is amazing to look back and see the advantage was minimal. I remember in week 2-3 whining here about how Brady to Moss combined with the Pats running up the score was going to destroy fantasy leagues across the land....
Apparently I was wrong... I agree that Moss being on just one NFFC league championship team is STUNNING. So if teams struggled to win with him as a bargain, do you think teams can win with him as a FIRST ROUND pick. Same with Brady??
Honestly, I'm in investigative mode now to find the answers. I think Ormond is correct that injuries played a big role in everything last year, which means that free agent pickups were critical last year. But we're talking about two of the biggest seasons ever for a QB and a WR and only EIGHT teams total in 26 leagues won with either of them on their roster. That's just amazing.
[ April 16, 2008, 08:57 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]
Greg/Tom,
To be honest, the Brady/Moss information is STUNNING when you really look at it on the surface. With the way those guys were going off everyone was fair in assuming Moss/Brady owners had a massive advantage. It is amazing to look back and see the advantage was minimal. I remember in week 2-3 whining here about how Brady to Moss combined with the Pats running up the score was going to destroy fantasy leagues across the land....
Apparently I was wrong... I agree that Moss being on just one NFFC league championship team is STUNNING. So if teams struggled to win with him as a bargain, do you think teams can win with him as a FIRST ROUND pick. Same with Brady??
Honestly, I'm in investigative mode now to find the answers. I think Ormond is correct that injuries played a big role in everything last year, which means that free agent pickups were critical last year. But we're talking about two of the biggest seasons ever for a QB and a WR and only EIGHT teams total in 26 leagues won with either of them on their roster. That's just amazing.
[ April 16, 2008, 08:57 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Where Did NFFC Champs Draft From In 2007?
If I thought Brady or Manning or any other QB would throw for 4000+ yards and 50 TD's I wouldn't hesitate to draft him in the 1st round; and feel extremely comfortable that I would "cash" in that Main Event league.
I believe a RB who outscores his peer group by a large margin is more valuable than a QB who does the same, so I'd much prefer an LT from last year or an LT or S Jax from 2006 than an Brady from '07, but after those few "premier" RB's are off the board I wouldn't hesitate to grab a QB, in the 1st round, who I thought would throw for 4000 and 50. The problem is, was last year an anomoly for Brady or will he do it again in '08? If you believe he'll "only" throw 35-36 TD's this year then using a 1st round pick becomes more difficult, because the differential between him and a QB you could get in the 3rd, 4th or even 5th or 6th round doesn't warrant passing up a 2nd tier RB or 1st tier WR.
I believe a RB who outscores his peer group by a large margin is more valuable than a QB who does the same, so I'd much prefer an LT from last year or an LT or S Jax from 2006 than an Brady from '07, but after those few "premier" RB's are off the board I wouldn't hesitate to grab a QB, in the 1st round, who I thought would throw for 4000 and 50. The problem is, was last year an anomoly for Brady or will he do it again in '08? If you believe he'll "only" throw 35-36 TD's this year then using a 1st round pick becomes more difficult, because the differential between him and a QB you could get in the 3rd, 4th or even 5th or 6th round doesn't warrant passing up a 2nd tier RB or 1st tier WR.
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Greg Ambrosius
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Where Did NFFC Champs Draft From In 2007?
I'm looking for the common denominator and not finding it. Obviously, since LT was picked first in all 26 leagues, he was on five championship teams. Adrian Peterson also was on five championship rosters, so he's more of a factor than Moss was. I'll keep searching.
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Where Did NFFC Champs Draft From In 2007?
Greg, I think a better question is how many teams that had Brady cashed last year? And how many teams cashed that had Moss?
It is one thing to win it all, but did having one or both of these guys give you the advantage needed to cash?
Besides Troy, (who obviously put his faith in the QB/WR tandem), much of the Moss/Brady benefit was "dumb luck". This doesn't mean I think skill didn't play a part in drafting one or both of these guys, it means their results weren't expected by the vast majority of drafters.
I feel that it would have been difficult for a Brady owner to not finish top 3 last year. Same for a Moss owner.
I'm hoping to get all draft results (in Excel format) so I can provide a greater analysis for all.
It is one thing to win it all, but did having one or both of these guys give you the advantage needed to cash?
Besides Troy, (who obviously put his faith in the QB/WR tandem), much of the Moss/Brady benefit was "dumb luck". This doesn't mean I think skill didn't play a part in drafting one or both of these guys, it means their results weren't expected by the vast majority of drafters.
I feel that it would have been difficult for a Brady owner to not finish top 3 last year. Same for a Moss owner.
I'm hoping to get all draft results (in Excel format) so I can provide a greater analysis for all.
2008- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic.
2009- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic or Primetime.
2009- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic or Primetime.
Where Did NFFC Champs Draft From In 2007?
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
I'm looking for the common denominator and not finding it. Obviously, since LT was picked first in all 26 leagues, he was on five championship teams. Adrian Peterson also was on five championship rosters, so he's more of a factor than Moss was. I'll keep searching. I'm not sure you're going to be able to identify a "common denominator" by randomly looking at one or two players. The common denominator or "formula" seems to be pretty much the same every year: Avoid overhyped players (in '07 LJ, Alexander, Henry, Maroney etc) + identify value plays (Brady, Moss, Edwards, J Lewis etc) + make effective use of the WW (Graham, Grant, Anderson, Ward etc) + avoid key injuries (S Jax, Rudi, Harrison, Brown, Caddy, Branch etc). Those who can come closest to following that formula will probably be at or near the top in their league. A Brady or Moss can certainly give a team a nice advantage but if they miss on their early picks and/or spend their free agent dollars friviously and/or sustain a number of key injuries they probably won't be there at the end.
I'm looking for the common denominator and not finding it. Obviously, since LT was picked first in all 26 leagues, he was on five championship teams. Adrian Peterson also was on five championship rosters, so he's more of a factor than Moss was. I'll keep searching. I'm not sure you're going to be able to identify a "common denominator" by randomly looking at one or two players. The common denominator or "formula" seems to be pretty much the same every year: Avoid overhyped players (in '07 LJ, Alexander, Henry, Maroney etc) + identify value plays (Brady, Moss, Edwards, J Lewis etc) + make effective use of the WW (Graham, Grant, Anderson, Ward etc) + avoid key injuries (S Jax, Rudi, Harrison, Brown, Caddy, Branch etc). Those who can come closest to following that formula will probably be at or near the top in their league. A Brady or Moss can certainly give a team a nice advantage but if they miss on their early picks and/or spend their free agent dollars friviously and/or sustain a number of key injuries they probably won't be there at the end.
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Greg Ambrosius
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Where Did NFFC Champs Draft From In 2007?
Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:
Greg, I think a better question is how many teams that had Brady cashed last year? And how many teams cashed that had Moss?
It is one thing to win it all, but did having one or both of these guys give you the advantage needed to cash?
Besides Troy, (who obviously put his faith in the QB/WR tandem), much of the Moss/Brady benefit was "dumb luck". This doesn't mean I think skill didn't play a part in drafting one or both of these guys, it means their results weren't expected by the vast majority of drafters.
I feel that it would have been difficult for a Brady owner to not finish top 3 last year. Same for a Moss owner.
I'm hoping to get all draft results (in Excel format) so I can provide a greater analysis for all. I have all but one city done with the Brady "cash" results and again you will be surprised. It isn't very high. Same with Moss. I'll take the time to find that tomorrow as Chicago's small boards are missing owner's names, so I have to go into each league to finalize those results. I will do that tomorrow a.m.
Greg, I think a better question is how many teams that had Brady cashed last year? And how many teams cashed that had Moss?
It is one thing to win it all, but did having one or both of these guys give you the advantage needed to cash?
Besides Troy, (who obviously put his faith in the QB/WR tandem), much of the Moss/Brady benefit was "dumb luck". This doesn't mean I think skill didn't play a part in drafting one or both of these guys, it means their results weren't expected by the vast majority of drafters.
I feel that it would have been difficult for a Brady owner to not finish top 3 last year. Same for a Moss owner.
I'm hoping to get all draft results (in Excel format) so I can provide a greater analysis for all. I have all but one city done with the Brady "cash" results and again you will be surprised. It isn't very high. Same with Moss. I'll take the time to find that tomorrow as Chicago's small boards are missing owner's names, so I have to go into each league to finalize those results. I will do that tomorrow a.m.
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius
Where Did NFFC Champs Draft From In 2007?
Here is something to consider. During weeks 10-16 (and since Brady was on bye week 10 I used his week 9 points) here is the breakdown of points scored at QB.
Brady 209.65
Manning 188.45
Warner 197.3
Yes Brady was awesome but what a value Warner was coming down the stretch! We rode Warner to 7 straight victories to end the season in a tie for first. He flat out carried us this past year. In our league Brady went in the 4th round and we would have missed out on Jamal Lewis (who was also huge down the stretch) had we taken Brady.
I am very surprised by the numbers but I might suggest something in hopes it doesn't offend anybody here. Is it possible the better fantasy football players had Brady and Moss rated lower and therefore didn't end up drafting them? What I mean by this is that you could give an average FF player LT to start the year and then begin the draft and my money would by on BillyWaz to still beat the person who was spotted LT.
I just wonder if many of the best FF folks wait at QB and plus they were concerned about the whole situation with Moss not practicing and therefore didn't feel he was worth the risk. The lesser players might have ignored this and have swung for the fences with nothing to lose and hit the home run. I know some very good players took Brady or Moss so I"m just talking in generalities here.
Wayne
[ April 15, 2008, 08:42 PM: Message edited by: Coltsfan ]
Brady 209.65
Manning 188.45
Warner 197.3
Yes Brady was awesome but what a value Warner was coming down the stretch! We rode Warner to 7 straight victories to end the season in a tie for first. He flat out carried us this past year. In our league Brady went in the 4th round and we would have missed out on Jamal Lewis (who was also huge down the stretch) had we taken Brady.
I am very surprised by the numbers but I might suggest something in hopes it doesn't offend anybody here. Is it possible the better fantasy football players had Brady and Moss rated lower and therefore didn't end up drafting them? What I mean by this is that you could give an average FF player LT to start the year and then begin the draft and my money would by on BillyWaz to still beat the person who was spotted LT.
I just wonder if many of the best FF folks wait at QB and plus they were concerned about the whole situation with Moss not practicing and therefore didn't feel he was worth the risk. The lesser players might have ignored this and have swung for the fences with nothing to lose and hit the home run. I know some very good players took Brady or Moss so I"m just talking in generalities here.
Wayne
[ April 15, 2008, 08:42 PM: Message edited by: Coltsfan ]