I started writing most of this a month or two ago, and only slightly revised since then. Right or wrong, I think most of these do qualify as "bold".
Running backs
a)
Arian Foster will not finish as the #1 RB (lucky if in top 5).
• Tate will cut into his production and he may miss a couple games.
• Also, with a healthy Schaub and Andre, as well as the defensive departure of Mario Williams, Houston will return to a more balanced offense.
• And I’ve been singing this song all summer long, long before his recent practice injury
b)
Peyton Hillis will end up scoring around the same points as Jamaal Charles, yet was drafted 3-4 rounds later.
• He’ll finish in at least the top-20.
c) Rookie RBs
•
Trent Richardson and
Doug Martin will barely break the top 20 RBs and barely score 200 NFFC points each
d)
Cedric Benson will run for 900 yards and 8 TDs in GB
Quarterbacks
a)
Matt Schaub will be this year’s Matthew Stafford
(1) In 2010, Schaub threw for the 4th most yards (4370); Rivers was first with 4710
(2) He only threw 24 TDs, but Foster broke out for 16 rushing TDs; send a few of those Schaub’s way and he could’ve been around 30
(3) Everyone thinks the Texans want to run, but they actually passed more than ran – and that was Foster’s breakout year even
• In 2009, Schaub led the league in passing yards with 4770; Peyton Manning was 2nd with 4500
• Then last year, Schaub and Andre were only on the field together for 4 games. Meanwhile, the rest of the NFL’s QBs got to take advantage of the revision to the defenseless player rule and we saw 3 QBs eclipse 5000 yards and another come close.
• If Andre stays healthy for 14+ games, Schaub will approach 5000 yards and throw 32-35 TDs = a top-5 NFFC QB.
b)
Cam Newton will regress and score around the same NFFC points as Romo and Rivers (400)
Tight ends
•
Jimmy Graham will not lap the field at TE. He’ll score no more than 40-50 points above Gates and Witten – and should’ve only been drafted a round or two ahead of them (in round 3 or 4)
•
Gresham, Celek and Olsen's ADPs were 12, 13, 18. They will at least round out the top-10 and at least one of them will finish in the top-5.
Wide receivers
a)
Calvin Johnson should not have been in his own tier, as he’ll only outscore other top WRs by 30-50 points, unlike the larger gaps at the other positions.
• Others who will finish within 30-50 points and belong in tier 1:
Fitz, Andre, Marshall, Julio, Roddy.
• At least 3 of these 4 will finish in the top-10 (WR ADP rank):
Decker (25), Bowe (21), Lloyd (22), Maclin (18)
b)
Brandon Marshall was drafted as the WR7, but will end up in the top 3
Defense & Special Teams
a)
SF
• 9th round ADP = way overdrafting last year’s stats. They added Moss, Manningham and James to their passing game. They face GB, DET, NYG, CHI, NO and NE this year = expect higher scores against them
b) A few potential top-5s (ADP rank)
•
HOU (5th): Will be the #1 overall fantasy DST. One of the top all-around offenses gets to play a pretty soft schedule of only a handful of potent offensive opponents. Clock control plus a solid defense that will score points, as well as Trindon Holliday’s electric return ability will yield special teams points
•
BUF (12th): with the addition of Mario Williams and a schedule with only 3 tough offenses (NE twice and HOU)
•
NE (11th): The only decent offenses they face are BAL, DEN and HOU. Opponents will be down big late in games and desperately slinging the ball all over the place, increasing chance for interceptions (albeit also increasing slop-time yardage)
c) Viable starting option that could be drafted cheaply
•
KC (19th) – stronger running game and healthy QB = higher time of possession
Kickers
a)
Shayne Graham (HOU) will be the #1 fantasy kicker
• APD = 17th, yet he kicks for a team that is widely considered the most well-rounded team in the NFL and a serious Super Bowl contender
• Even if he’s only in the top 5, he will prove to be the best kicker value from drafts
• 4th most accurate field goal kicker of all time
