Week 15 Thoughts and Observations

[Tom Kessenich]

Here are some random thoughts and observations about Week 15 as I wonder if Johnny Manziel's NFL career is over.

So about Manziel - that may have been the worst performance I've seen from an NFL starting quarterback in ... possibly forever. It was far worse than anything we saw from Tim Tebow. Tebow at least would threaten a defense with his mobility. At no point in Sunday's game were the Bengals ever threatened by Manziel other than maybe falling victim to laughing too hard at his complete and total incompetence.

The good news for the Browns? There's nowhere for Manziel to go but up.

The bad news? Since he's a first-round pick they're invested in him being their guy for at least the next 1-2 seasons. The problem with that is he looks so far removed from just being competent at the NFL level their franchise could be set back years trying to make him work.

Sorry Browns fans.

Speaking of embattled quarterbacks, RG3 got back on the field for Washington and did a lot of good things in my opinion. So imagine how pissed off Jay Gruden is right now. The absolute last thing he needs is for Griffin to look good because that will only further underscore how incompetent Gruden's handling of his quarterback situation has been.

Oh, I have absolutely no idea how RG3's touchdown run (which would've been his first since his rookie year) was overturned. Based on every replay I saw, the ball clearly crossed the goal line before any issues occurred. And yet, no touchdown.

People having no idea what a touchdown or reception is anymore is one of the game's biggest problems. So what is the NFL going to do about it? They're going to focus on pushing the goal posts in closer to make field goal attempts more difficult.

Yup, that's a huge area of concern in the game right now. So glad the league is getting to the bottom of that one.

Well done Rog.

Welcome back Dez Bryant. You've been missed.

Oh Jerry Jones, Dez has two words for you - Cha Ching.

Time for Nick Foles in Week 15?

Yeah I think so too.

In the last two weeks the Bills have faced Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers and did not allow a single touchdown pass. Show me a more impressive defensive achievement this season. Go ahead, I dare you.

I double dog dare you.

I can't recall the last time Rodgers and Jordy Nelson in particular played so poorly. Rodgers was out of sync with his receivers the whole game and Nelson flat-out stunk. No other word to describe it.

I think we did see a possible blueprint for success defending the Packers if you have a good defense on Sunday. Since Green Bay has no TE to speak of and their reserve WRs are suspect if you can take Nelson away (or have him take himself away like he did against Buffalo) you can disrupt the Packers' offense. Let Randall Cobb get his but make sure Nelson doesn't beat you too. A good defense with strong CB play could make that plan work.

So who has that type of defense you ask?

::coughSeattlecough::

If you would've told me before Sunday that Buffalo would beat Green Bay and Sammy Watkins would only catch one pass I would've taken that bet a million times over.

I have no idea what the Lions were doing offensively for most of the game against Minnesota but once again they found a way. In this era of big-time offenses, the ability to lean on a good defense comes along so infrequently we don't know how to respond when we see it. But we've certainly seen it this season with the Lions. Other than a beatdown administered by Tom Brady, Detroit's D has risen to nearly every challenge presented to them. That's very impressive. People can rip on Jim Caldwell all they want but he's been a gigantic upgrade over Jim Schwartz.

Speaking of good defenses, the Seahawks have allowed 27 points in their last four games. That's not too shabby.

Carolina is 5-8-1 and leading a division in the NFL. Two of their wins came with Derek Anderson at quarterback.

You gotta love the NFC South.

At this point I'm pretty sure I could start at quarterback for the Cardinals and Bruce Arians would figure out a way to make it work.

Andrew Luck is one helluva player but he's taken a beating lately behind a shaky offensive line. For a good team, the Colts have some glaring holes they need to fix, starting with fortifying the group who are being asked to protect an MVP-caliber talent.

Odell Beckham has caught 71 passes for 973 yards and nine touchdowns.

Oh, did I forget to mention he missed the first four games of the season?

Yeah, he's kinda good.

I said it last week and I'll say it again, the Vikings got something in Teddy Bridgewater. Yeah he threw a couple of bad picks against Detroit on Sunday but he plays calm in the pocket and knows how to lead an offense. Absolute joke that his Pro Day almost dropped him out of the first round. He should've been a Top 10 pick.

Doug Martin had a 64-yard run on Sunday.

No really, it happened. Honest. I saw it.

It did.

You just gotta believe me.

It's pretty obvious by now whatever magic Josh McCown had last season has long since gone away but I sure do admire that guy's heart. He doesn't leave anything on the field each week. No wonder he's so well respected by his peers.

I think the Bengals decision to go back to featuring Jeremy Hill was a good idea.

The metamorphosis of the Broncos from a high-powered passing attack to a power run team led by C.J. Anderson has been one of the season's most interesting developments. That shift could pay big dividends in the postseason if (and to me this is where Denver's fate has always resided) their defense can become more of a big-play unit than we've seen so far.

Tom Brady and Matt Ryan combined for two fewer rushing yards on Sunday than Le'Veon Bell. Just like everyone predicted.

Week 16's Thursday Night Game is between the Titans and Jaguars. Who's the scheduling genius who thought that game would be one to watch in Week 16?

And finally, if you started Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Calvin Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green and Julius Thomas you didn't do anything wrong and yet you still got punished. Unfortunately, that's the way this game can be sometimes. You can do everything right, make the smartest call possible and still get crushed. It's by far the worst part of this game and it feels like a body blow from Prime Mike Tyson. All I can say is that if you make the right call based on all the right factors and it still doesn't work out you just blame the football gods and walk away. You did everything right but sometimes in this crazy game we play doing the right thing doesn't always mean you're going to get the desired results.

[Coltsfan]

I don't think using the first round pick on Manziel has really set the Browns back at all. If you think about it, that first was the Colts first that they got for Trent Richardson. Manziel for Richardson seems like a pretty even swap:)


Wayne

[TR]

And finally, if you started Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Calvin Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green and Julius Thomas you didn't do anything wrong and yet you still got punished.

A.J. Green was no surprise...Joe Haden has a history of owing him...we had this discussion after Green had a dud against him last year

[TR]

So about Manziel - that may have been the worst performance I've seen from an NFL starting quarterback in ... possibly forever. It was far worse than anything we saw from Tim Tebow. Tebow at least would threaten a defense with his mobility. At no point in Sunday's game were the Bengals ever threatened by Manziel other than maybe falling victim to laughing too hard at his complete and total incompetence.

The good news for the Browns? There's nowhere for Manziel to go but up.

The bad news? Since he's a first-round pick they're invested in him being their guy for at least the next 1-2 seasons. The problem with that is he looks so far removed from just being competent at the NFL level their franchise could be set back years trying to make him work.

Sorry Browns fans.

I had good feeling Manziel would be a bust...like a mini Tebow except possibly worse...Marvin Lewis was right in calling him a midget as he looked like The Great Kazoo....a boy among laughing Bengals out there. Maybe he can be Lebron's waterboy in the future That said, do u think Johnny can get the ball enough to Gordon vs the Panthers to make Gordon a viable starting option? Man what a disaster!

[TR]

I think we did see a possible blueprint for success defending the Packers if you have a good defense on Sunday. Since Green Bay has no TE to speak of and their reserve WRs are suspect if you can take Nelson away (or have him take himself away like he did against Buffalo) you can disrupt the Packers' offense. Let Randall Cobb get his but make sure Nelson doesn't beat you too. A good defense with strong CB play could make that plan work.

So who has that type of defense you ask?

::coughSeattlecough::

Detroit has already done it...Darius Slay looking like a pro bowl caliber corner...and Detroit safeties are legit Pro Bowl caliber as well if it wasn't a popularity contest.

[Tom Kessenich]

Yup, Detroit did a good job on Rodgers earlier this season.

In Detroit.

What's Detroit's record in the state of Wisconsin the past two decades again?

[Tom Kessenich]

And finally, if you started Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Calvin Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green and Julius Thomas you didn't do anything wrong and yet you still got punished.

A.J. Green was no surprise...Joe Haden has a history of owing him...we had this discussion after Green had a dud against him last year

Yeah Green wasn't a huge surprise given Haden's presence. I actually had Watkins in there in my first draft and replaced him with Green since he's a bigger name. But I think the primary point still stands. You can do all the right things in this game but once the games begin you're totally at the mercy of what transpires on the field and oftentimes what transpires on the field runs 180 degrees contrary to what all the pregame analysis and statistical breakdowns suggest should occur.

I think it begs the question - which is the harder move to recover from: Starting a player with clear bust potential like a Donte Moncrief for example and watching him soil the bed or starting a stud and watching him fall way short of expectations in a critical week? For me, I tend to kick myself over the former. If my season ends because my superstar (or superstars) flame out that sucks but what are you gonna do? I tend to obsess and second guess the reach moves I make that don't pan out. Those are the ones I end up kicking myself over later.

[Money]

Yup, Detroit did a good job on Rodgers earlier this season.

In Detroit.

What's Detroit's record in the state of Wisconsin the past two decades again?

Ahhhh, you can ask that question about the Lions in any state in the Union and have a valid point Tom. The Lions are hanging around and nobody thinks they can win in Green Bay the last week, including me. With that said the Lions can lose next week and win the division in Green Bay the following week. Stranger things have happened.

Here's to hoping the Packers overlook the Bucs next week and it becomes a mute point.

[TR]

Yup, Detroit did a good job on Rodgers earlier this season.

In Detroit.

What's Detroit's record in the state of Wisconsin the past two decades again?

Ahhhh, you can ask that question about the Lions in any state in the Union and have a valid point Tom. The Lions are hanging around and nobody thinks they can win in Green Bay the last week, including me. With that said the Lions can lose next week and win the division in Green Bay the following week. Stranger things have happened.

Here's to hoping the Packers overlook the Bucs next week and it becomes a mute point.

First time for everything.....will feel better about Lions chances at Green Bay if they can break their 16 game cold weather losing streak Sunday....

Detroit has lost 16 consecutive times in games 40 degrees or colder, and they likely play two to finish this season


If the Detroit Lions are going to win the NFC North, they're going to have to buck a trend that's dogged them for decades.

They've got to win in the cold.

The forecast Sunday for Chicago is projected at 35 degrees and partly cloudy. The forecast Dec. 28 in Green Bay will likely be as cold, if not colder, especially if that game is flexed to the night slot.

The Lions have lost 16 consecutive games in which the weather was 40 degrees or colder at game time. Their last win in such conditions was Nov. 19, 2000, a 31-21 victory against the New York Giants, who represented the NFC in the Super Bowl that year.

That game was exactly 40 degrees at game time.

If you're looking for the Lions' last win in a game colder than that, it was Nov. 19, 1995, against the Chicago Bears (a 24-17 win in 37-degree weather).

In that game, the Lions had Barry Sanders (24 carries, 120 yards, 2 touchdowns), Brett Perriman (12 catches, 142 yards) and Herman Moore (6 catches, 68 yards, 1 touchdown).

It's true that much of this has to do with the Lions' overall woes in Wisconsin against the Packers; they haven't won there since 1991 and, since that 1995 win at Chicago, the Lions have lost to the Packers 10 times in cold-weather conditions.

But the Lions (10-4) will play the Packers (10-4) in Week 17, in a game that projects to be in freezing conditions and will likely determine the NFC North champion.

The good news is the Lions can avoid having to win in the cold and clinch a playoff spot; they'll need the Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) to lose one of their next two games, though against sub-.500 competition (at Washington Redskins, at New York Giants).

The Lions can clinch the NFC North with a win at 5-8 Chicago and a Packers loss at 2-12 Tampa Bay this weekend.

Here's the full breakdown of Lions games in 40-degree-or-colder weather:

Dec. 8, 2013: At Eagles, loss 34-20

Dec. 9, 2012: At Packers, loss 27-20

Jan. 1, 2011: At Packers, loss 45-41

Dec. 13, 2009: At Ravens, loss 48-3

Dec. 6, 2009: At Bengals, loss 23-13

Dec. 28, 2008: At Packers, loss 31-21

Dec. 30, 2007: At Packers, loss 34-13

Dec. 17, 2006: At Packers, loss 17-9

Dec. 3, 2006: At Patriots, loss 48-21

Jan. 1, 2006: At Steelers, loss 35-21

Dec. 11, 2005: At Packers, loss 16-13

Dec. 12, 2004: At Packers, loss 16-13

Dec. 14, 2003: At Chiefs, loss 45-13

Nov. 24, 2002: At Bears, loss 20-17

Dec. 2, 2001: At Bears, loss 13-10

Dec. 10, 2000: At Packers, loss 26-13

Nov. 19, 2000: At Giants, win 31-21 (at exactly 40 degrees)

Dec. 19, 1999: At Bears, loss 28-10

Dec. 27, 1998: At Ravens, loss 19-10

Nov. 2, 1997: At Packers, loss 20-10

Nov. 24, 1996: At Bears, loss 31-14

Nov. 3, 1996: At Packers, loss 28-18

Dec. 30, 1996: At Eagles, loss 58-37 (NFC Wild Card game)

Nov. 19, 1995: At Bears, win 24-17 (at 37 degrees)

[Greg Ambrosius]

Did you see the Bears last night? Did you see Cutler's press conference? The Lions' streak will end this week and then they will start a new cold weather losing streak on Dec. 28th at Lambeau Field!! Should be a fun season finale on the Frozen Tundra.