Gronk n' Graham

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 3:26 am

i wont be drafting them that high

Ry's Guys · Post by **Ry's Guys** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 8:14 am

I prefer to go QB early 1-3rd rounds so it is hard for me to go TE before 6-7th round at the earliest. But If I knew what I know now I'd have taken Rodgers, Gronk & Graham 1,2,3!!!

Both have elite quarterbacks throwing to them but there are a lot of weapons on those squads. They could repeat or improve their stats but the TD's Gronk is scoring will be hard to duplicate.

That said they will probably be drafted too high for their value in 2012. I would guess Gronk mid-2nd round and Graham shortly after, probably early 3rd round. That would be too rich for my blood.

As far as WR's going ahead of them? Megatron, Welker, White, Wallace, AJ, Jennings, Nicks/Cruz,Fitz.

[ December 16, 2011, 02:20 PM: Message edited by: Bullgod ]

Riverdog · Post by **Riverdog** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 9:42 am

Also - don't forget. Extreme things that happen in the NFL tend to NOT repeat.

Off the top of my head I can think of several examples.

Manning/Brady record breaking pass TD years. The next year they go SUPER high in drafts and they don't come close to repeating (Brady got injured but I doubt he would have come close the next year anyway)

Vick is top fantasy guy last year and talked about as a first round pick and doesn't come close to the same production.

M. Lewis scores 10 TD's and has a crappy year this year....

After Janikowski hit 5 FG's and had 50+ yd FG's in a stretch this year - my partner calls me and says "how high does Janikowski go next year ?"

my answer - the same as he goes every year. he's a kicker.

OK, I'm getting a little off track but my point is.
Next year teams will study film and make GRONK and Graham a major priority to stop.

Its hard to repeat monter years like that.

Also, if you take GRONK at end of 1st round and he scores 7 TD's and is TE # 6 next year your team is kinda screwed because you passed up on that stud WR/RB that you could have paired with Finley or Tony G etc.

[ December 16, 2011, 03:43 PM: Message edited by: Riverdog ]

jimchristie · Post by **jimchristie** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:23 am

I am usually a RB/RB type guy; could change but not for a TE;

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:41 am

There you go Glenn. That's pretty much what I was expecting. Forget about TD regression for minute, I think people won't take them that high just because they are TE's.

Wayne

HOLLYWOODJAMES · Post by **HOLLYWOODJAMES** » Fri Dec 16, 2011 3:55 pm

The leader in the OC Championship has BOTH this year along with Rodgers and McCoy.

Most teams don't use the TE so I agree that picking a TE in rounds 1-5 would be a waste unless you get Graham or Gronk.

These two guys are the exception to the rule and are far superior to some of the WR "studs" that are slowly becoming a dying breed.

LB's and defensive secondaries can't match up with these guys because they're simply too big and too athletic.

These two TE's will probably be taken #1...#2...or #3

If your draft position is toward the end and you can't get Rodgers, Brees, Brady or Newton with your first pick, it might be wise to snag one if not both of these guys.

As long as they stay healthy it's 30 - 60 points from these two.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 5:55 am

Originally posted by Jersey Dawg:
These guys are better than almost anyone's first WR. The game is changing. We have to learn to adapt. I agree. I wrote a column last week about Gronkowski and Graham and the record-setting fantasy seasons they are on the verge of producing. I've never been a guy who likes to draft TEs high but these two are so far above the norm that I would have to consider it.

The only WRs I can say right now I'd absolutely take ahead of them are Megatron, Andre Johnson and Welker. It's possible a few others will enter the mix before next season. But right now I think you have to view Gronkowski and Graham as elite WR1s and therefore ask yourself how high are you willing to go to get a stud WR1? I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both go Top 15-20 next season. I think both will be gone by the end of the second round. So if you want one of them, they likely won't come cheap.

Gronkowski's been better so far this season but I actually feel better about Graham going forward. Gronkowski could finish with close to 20 touchdowns this season, which is a crazy number for a wide receiver, much less a tight end. If either player is going to regress, I think it could come in the form of fewer TDs for Gronkowski. I still think he's a safe bet for double figures barring injury, but he's on an insane pace right now and I'm not sure that can be sustained - even with Brady at QB.

But I see no reason to expect significant regression from either one. Both are talented, have huge roles in their respective offenses and are playing with elite QBs. People may not want to spend a high pick on them next season but barring injury I don't think those who do will end up being disappointed.