NFFC Rules Changes Proposed For 2019; Let's Discuss

[Sandman62]

Mike Sanda just sent me the kicker ADP grouped by Feb-April, then May-June, and the last byJuly-Sept.

Greg, It did not move at all. To say that it's a crapshoot drafting early is bogus. It's 1000% clear that kicker ADP in early drafts was the same as it was in late drafts. The big movers like Jake Elliott going from 5th early, to 8th, mid year, to 6th late year. There was just hardly any difference at all. Almost all ended the year within 3 draft spots of where they started the year.

I know I'm beating a dead horse, but most of the guys who do a ton of these drafts want kickers. The only reason I'm even posting this is that if the reason to do away with kickers and go to team kickers is "We are now opening DC's in February and we know the Kicker position is a crapshoot in May and June, so it will really be a crapshoot before then. Team kicker should make it easier to draft a DC team in Feb, March, and April." That is your quote and there isn't anything true about that post. Nothing changed really changed the entire year. I did 60 of these DC's this year in your events and one other and I didn't have a single team without a kicker for any period of time at all. I feel like my competitive advantage was that I was willing to value this position and take it early while others would roll the dice and wait. Or perhaps they were willing to roll with 2 below average kickers and they put together good teams but lost because of poor kicker drafting. Now all this does is bail them out.

My bottom line is that if you make a decision to change something, make that decision on real information. Not just a random thought that it must be that way. Because your reason to change is simply not factual.

Wayne

Here's the kicker ADP data Wayne referenced. The "Diff" columns represent the difference between each ADP and the Actual end of season rank.

https://od.lk/s/OThfMTMzMzQ1NTJf/Kicker ... ly-Sep.pdf

[TR]

What do people think of the idea to add one free agent move during the playoffs in the contained leagues? Sounds like they are considering it if it can be made functional. Seems like this could be done rather easily. To me, it seems like the rule is mainly designed for the overall contests. I like this idea as you don'y have to budget money for the playoffs, yet can have a little injury security which is much needed as guys get shutdown late. I had a lot of teams where I didn't have a TE at the end of the season as they both got hurt. Lot of money on the line to have nothing that can be done with an entire three weeks of injuries to deal with after free agency leading up to the last week.

I would vote NO if there was a poll sent out to all the owners. Too many teams would be getting bailed out... for instance, many in the championship rounds dont roster a backup kicker. If the kicker gets injured, that's a risk they took..with this rule everyone will roster just 1 kicker. Also, a guy like CJ Anderson would change the whole contest. 3 teams from each league with 1 dollar or whatever the budget is would all bid the same on him, then what? Furthermore, I don't think it would be fair for some RB needy team who limped into the playoffs after blowing their budget early in the season...to suddenly get a reprieve and be able to get a RB 1 like CJ Anderson for the championship weeks to catapult their team to the top. In the last week of the regular season, I usually have to cut some good players to make sure I have good backup depth at all the positions. If I had a tight end with some kind of injury history or any other doubts, I'd strongly consider rostering 3 tight ends for the playoffs. The good players I chose to discard for depth shouldn't be available so a competing team can pick him up and upgrade 1 of their weaker positions for the critical playoff weeks.

Again this is just in the individual leagues, so wouldn't have helped Wayne in the classic anyway. The tiebreaker is points. They deserve it. You say that everyone would roster one kicker. Well grabbing a guy like Anderson puts you at risk, no? It is equal sum game. For every Anderson, there is a Gurley. I don't like large money contained leagues decided by injury luck. This would help a little. I understand if you do like it being decided by injury luck though. Furthermore, I play leagues at a boatload of places. There are two places where you cannot make free agent moves after week 13 in individual leagues, one being the NFFC. The other is a very similar contest with mostly overall contests. It seems like these rules are designed for those, not individual leagues. My idea is far closer to no free agency, but just a subtle change that allows for filling in injury gaps, should you choose to use it that way. I cannot imagine if all leagues everywhere closed after 13 weeks. That would be comical, which is why I think the NFFC should tweak it.

Ah ok, I was thinking u meant the main events also after reading Wayne's response mentioning the Classic. That said, injury luck almost always decides leagues...in the real NFL and fantasy. That's where depth comes in..admittedly I haven't done any individual leagues in NFFC. I would say that any leagues giving u 20 roster spots should be more than enough to make sure u have enough depth at each position for the playoffs. I'm assuming most of the individual leagues at other places have more limited rosters, so of course they shouldn't close after 13 weeks. Many of them, like realtime for example, probably not using blind bidding either. I think the better idea would be to just keep the FAAB u start the season with open through the playoffs in individual leagues with less roster spots. The owner who got most points in large part because of going all in with his FAAB on a guy who became a RB1 or WR1 for the season, shouldn't then also be rewarded with the tiebreaker in your playoff scenario. Should be a give and take..he took the risk spending 90% of his FAAB on a dude who gave him a winning lottery ticket for the reg season...however the other owners who chose to be more judicious with their FAAB should then be able to have that for their advantage in the fantasy playoffs. It wouldn't be right to give the lucky lottery ticket winner an added bonus of extra FAAB with tiebreaker in the playoffs...there should also be a cost to factor when going ALL IN.

[TR]

Ah ok, I was thinking u meant the main events also after reading Wayne's response mentioning the Classic. That said, injury luck almost always decides leagues...in the real NFL and fantasy. That's where depth comes in..admittedly I haven't done any individual leagues in NFFC. I would say that any leagues giving u 20 roster spots should be more than enough to make sure u have enough depth at each position for the playoffs. I'm assuming most of the individual leagues at other places have more limited rosters, so of course they shouldn't close after 13 weeks. Many of them, like realtime for example, probably not using blind bidding either. I think the better idea would be to just keep the FAAB u start the season with open through the playoffs in individual leagues with less roster spots. The owner who got most points in large part because of going all in with his FAAB on a guy who became a RB1 or WR1 for the season, shouldn't then also be rewarded with the tiebreaker in your playoff scenario. Should be a give and take..he took the risk spending 90% of his FAAB on a dude who gave him a winning lottery ticket for the reg season...however the other owners who chose to be more judicious with their FAAB should then be able to have that for their advantage in the fantasy playoffs. It wouldn't be right to give the lucky lottery ticket winner an added bonus of extra FAAB with tiebreaker in the playoffs...there should also be a cost to factor when going ALL IN.

[Sandman62]

We are now opening the DCs in February and we know the Kicker position is a crapshoot in May and June, so it will really be a crapshoot before then. Team Kicker should make it easier to draft a DC team in February, March and April.

But more importantly, to back up this position you need at least 3 and maybe 4 potential kickers in the DCs if you draft early. Guess how many Kickers were drafted last year? Any idea?

FIFTY-FOUR!!!!!

That's two full rounds of drafting Kickers. In fact, during Rounds 28 to 35, there were 34 different Kickers being drafted. Only 20 kickers have an ADP in the first 27 rounds, so if this is such an important position, WHY AREN'T PEOPLE DRAFTING THEM EARLIER?

This isn't a skilled finish to the DC, it's a CRAPSHOOT to back up ONE POSITION. With Team Kicker and with staying at 35 rounds, we could have 22 more skill-position players being drafted in Rounds 28-35. Isn't that good for the game?

If I didn't know better Greg, all of your arguments here sure sound an awful lot like the ones I've made in the past to just get rid of kickers.

That said... your "FIFTY-FOUR" note above made me realize that what I posted yesterday started with the Player Stats:
https://playnffc.sportshubtech.com/foru ... 1&p=223556

But it only showed the 40 kickers who actually scored points this year. But obviously, that doesn't tell the whole story because there were a dozen more kickers who didn't score - which is exactly the point I believe you're making.

CAUTION: Lots of numbers forthcoming here. But I'm really trying to take an objective look at this. So please bear with me.

So I started over, this time with all 52 kickers who were drafted in all DCs throughout the year (I believe your 54 was from all drafts?). Then I added the same ADP breakdown columns for "Thru Apr", "May-Jun", and "Jul-Sep". Then I looked up their points scored. So whereas the first chart I posted was from the Actual perspective, this one is from the ADP.

In the May-Jun Diff column, I highlighted in bold-faced blue any player whose "May-Jun" difference (between that ADP and his Actual points rank) was greater than 2 (positive or negative) away from his "Thru Apr" difference. So for example, Jake Elliott's "Thru Apr" ADP Difference from his actual Pts Rank was 11 because that ADP was 5, but he finished 16th. Then his "May-Jun" ADP Difference was down to 8 because that ADP was 8 (and his finish was still 16th). The difference between the two ADP Diffs = 3, so it's highlighted. I applied the same blue bold-facing to the Jul-Sep column to show when the difference jumped by 3 or more from the May-Jun values. If you count the number of times a player's ADP minus ActualRank moved by 3+ from "Thru Apr" to "May-Jun", you'll see 18 instances. But look at the same comparison between "May-Jun" to "Jul-Sep"... there are 21! So we see that, as the summer progresses, we were already used to some wild ADP swings. And it doesn't really look like we'll necessarily see anything wilder than that once we're drafting a lot of DCs in Feb-Apr. That may be due to the likelihood that we won't necessarily see many kickers cut in the Spring; instead, most of the cuts will probably occur in training camp and late summer.

At the bottom of the Diff columns, I showed the AVG of all differences. At first glance, it seems to support your point that we'd be even less accurate in picking the right kickers through April (8.67) than we would in May-Jun (8.09). However, these numbers may look closer than they really are due to two huge outliers: Forbath and Tavecchio - both of whose ADPs moved massively downward once they lost their jobs. Again, this is probably the point you're making. But if you remove these two outliers, then the AVG of the "Thru Apr" Diff = 7.77 and the AVG of the "May-Jun" Diff = 7.68, which is remarkably similar. I don't know who the owners were that drafted Forbath 130 times and Tavecchio 85 times, but I managed to avoid both due to their lack of security; through more than 40 best ball drafts, I had just one share of Tavecchio and zero of Forbath. And I'll bet some of the seasoned DC vets had very little exposure to these guys also.

Like others, I'm confused who was asking for Team Kickers. Right or wrong, my preference would be NO kickers. And it seems like most of those posting here would prefer the usual individually-drafted kickers. But Team Kickers?

Here are some undesirable examples of how Team Kicker would've fared this season:

• I had 14% exposure to Cairo Santos (kicker ADP rank low 30s) when he was on NYJ. He got cut in August. So I would've undeservingly fallen into the #2 kicker in Jason Myers instead of being stuck with Santos' #31 finish.
• Dan Bailey was drafted most of the summer as K11 (then K17 toward season open), largely because he had a good history and was on DAL. Anyone who drafted him would've undeservingly fallen into the #7 kicker, Brett Maher, instead of Bailey's #22 finish.

Who was more entitled to Myers' and Maher's #2 and #7 finishes - the owners who drafted Santos and Bailey (and may have never even heard of Myers/Maher) or the ones who researched fringe kickers and took a shot at those guys landing somewhere they could produce? Yes, the Myers/Maher owners would've cashed in bigtime on their late-round flier picks; but isn't there always that chance every year at ALL positions (not just kicker)?

In conclusion, like many others have already said, I'm finding it hard to substantiate that the Team Kicker approach was needed based on the assumption that we'd see an increase in ADP vs. Actual volatility when drafting in Feb-Apr. We already see similar movement every year as we get closer to the season. And why take a position that is already largely influenced by luck and make it even luckier (like in my NYJ/DAL examples above)?


https://od.lk/s/OThfMTMzMzQ1NTRf/Kicker ... ly-Sep.pdf

[RedRyder]

Like others, I'm confused who was asking for Team Kickers. Right or wrong, my preference would be NO kickers. And it seems like most of those posting here would prefer the usual individually-drafted kickers. But Team Kickers?

Here are some undesirable examples of how Team Kicker would've fared this season:

• I had 14% exposure to Cairo Santos (kicker ADP rank low 30s) when he was on NYJ. He got cut in August. So I would've undeservingly fallen into the #2 kicker in Jason Myers instead of being stuck with Santos' #31 finish.
• Dan Bailey was drafted most of the summer as K11 (then K17 toward season open), largely because he had a good history and was on DAL. Anyone who drafted him would've undeservingly fallen into the #7 kicker, Brett Maher, instead of Bailey's #22 finish.

Who was more entitled to Myers' and Maher's #2 and #7 finishes - the owners who drafted Santos and Bailey (and may have never even heard of Myers/Maher) or the ones who researched fringe kickers and took a shot at those guys landing somewhere they could produce? Yes, the Myers/Maher owners would've cashed in bigtime on their late-round flier picks; but isn't there always that chance every year at ALL positions (not just kicker)?

In conclusion, like many others have already said, I'm finding it hard to substantiate that the Team Kicker approach was needed based on the assumption that we'd see an increase in ADP vs. Actual volatility when drafting in Feb-Apr. We already see similar movement every year as we get closer to the season. And why take a position that is already largely influenced by luck and make it even luckier (like in my NYJ/DAL examples above)?

Bingo!

I like to play in early drafts because I think I have an edge (results would prove otherwise!). I agree with what Mike has posted above and the points Wayne has made and the "dumbing down" comment Mark made.

Here's a thought, if you want to attract more customers in these early drafts, have an online social media presence with an identity. If you or any of the couple other big in-season contests think they have an engaging social media presence, I beg to differ. Complete void and mis-step in the marketing department. Kickers, Team Kickers or No Kickers...wouldn't matter in terms of new customers attracted if you/others had a social media presence that was engaging.

Also, how long was the discussion for Team Kickers open before a decision was made? I didn't think I came late to the party, but decision was already made when I did arrive.

[eliasond]

My preference for team kicker is based on preventing the unlucki-ness of injuries, not to reward owners who wait until late and end up with several marginal K who get cut. The latter group deserves what they get. To illustrate my point for instance Zeurlein this year. He was only out a couple games but it could have been the rest of the year. And every year it seems a couple top end K pull their hammy or quad and end up on IR. A team could easily draft 2 solid K early with guaranteed jobs and then get screwed due to fluke injuries to both of during training camp or early in the season. And even if you have a 3rd K as a backup to fill in you are at a severe disadvantage in a DC if you only have 1 K left and are forced to take his score every week instead of the best of 3 scores, due to the wide variability in K scores from week to week, even for the best ones.

I am a big proponent of the mind set that dumb luck should not decide fantasy championships. I think the benefit of eliminating the luck factor for K injuries outweighs the loss of strategically drafting individual K. But I do see the other side of the argument and overall it's a close call.

Just my 2 cents... Now let's watch some FB today!

[Former-Army-Person]

I'd prefer individual kickers. A lot of team kicker arguments could be extended to having team QBs - over-importance of injuries, need to waste picks on backups, etc. But if you're going to have team kickers, why are they separate from team defense/special teams? Aren't kickers part of special teams? Why does a team defense/special get credit for kick returns but not FGs? I'm not in favor of team QB or adding FG/EP scoring to D/ST, just arguing the illogical of team PK as a separate position.

[packman527]

3. Team Kicker for NFFC Draft Champions Leagues?: We debated this one at length last year for the Draft Champions leagues and there was no strong consensus to change this. But I'll put it here for discussion anyway. If we do allow Team Kicker JUST FOR DC LEAGUES, it would be safer for owners who draft earlier before teams cut individual kickers or before there are injuries to individual kickers. It also might allow us to reduce DC drafts by a round or two because owners feel safer about backing up Kickers with 1 or 2 backup Team Kickers rather than back up their first kicker with 3-4 "names of kickers". This would be a drastic change for the DCs, but let's see if anyone has changed their mind in the past year. If we start NFFC Draft Champions leagues in early February then it gives even more credence to easing the unpredictable kicker position. We have no intention of eliminating kickers in season-long games, but we feel FOR DRAFT CHAMPIONS CONTESTS ONLY it does make sense to allow Team Kicker without cutting the number of rounds we offer. This will allow NFFC owners to draft with more confidence earlier in the off-season and compete in more leagues. It also takes some of the luck factor out of this position. So for ONLY DRAFT CHAMPIONS LEAGUES, we will introduce Team Kicker (32 available) in 2019 while keeping the number of rounds at 35.

I have a thought about having the team kicker thing. Are you going to implement some rule to ensure that a team doesn't get completely shutout on having a kicker? It would be pretty stupid of someone to not take a kicker, but it would not be impossible to imagine a situation where someone played chicken one too many times and got themselves shutout on taking one, now that there is a set number of exactly 32 kickers than can even be drafted. As I'm typing this, I now realize that this exact dilemma is already in place with drafting defenses. There isn't anything in place to ensure someone drafts a defense, is there? I wonder if this has ever happened. I just did some quick research of the rules, and I see that in your other contests there are stipulations in the rules about leaving the draft with a legal lineup. However, the draft champions rules has no such language. So, I'm guessing you have already thought of this possibility and purposely did not included the 'legal lineup' requirement in the draft champions rules. So, if someone is stupid enough to not take a kicker or a defense in time before they are all gone, then they just get a zero all year. So, I think I answered my own question. But I guess that is one more thing DC drafters need to be cognizant about.

[packman527]

What do people think of the idea to add one free agent move during the playoffs in the contained leagues? Sounds like they are considering it if it can be made functional. Seems like this could be done rather easily. To me, it seems like the rule is mainly designed for the overall contests. I like this idea as you don'y have to budget money for the playoffs, yet can have a little injury security which is much needed as guys get shutdown late. I had a lot of teams where I didn't have a TE at the end of the season as they both got hurt. Lot of money on the line to have nothing that can be done with an entire three weeks of injuries to deal with after free agency leading up to the last week.

I would vote NO if there was a poll sent out to all the owners. Too many teams would be getting bailed out... for instance, many in the championship rounds dont roster a backup kicker. If the kicker gets injured, that's a risk they took..with this rule everyone will roster just 1 kicker. Also, a guy like CJ Anderson would change the whole contest. 3 teams from each league with 1 dollar or whatever the budget is would all bid the same on him, then what? Furthermore, I don't think it would be fair for some RB needy team who limped into the playoffs after blowing their budget early in the season...to suddenly get a reprieve and be able to get a RB 1 like CJ Anderson for the championship weeks to catapult their team to the top. In the last week of the regular season, I usually have to cut some good players to make sure I have good backup depth at all the positions. If I had a tight end with some kind of injury history or any other doubts, I'd strongly consider rostering 3 tight ends for the playoffs. The good players I chose to discard for depth shouldn't be available so a competing team can pick him up and upgrade 1 of their weaker positions for the critical playoff weeks.

Again this is just in the individual leagues, so wouldn't have helped Wayne in the classic anyway. The tiebreaker is points. They deserve it. You say that everyone would roster one kicker. Well grabbing a guy like Anderson puts you at risk, no? It is equal sum game. For every Anderson, there is a Gurley. I don't like large money contained leagues decided by injury luck. This would help a little. I understand if you do like it being decided by injury luck though. Furthermore, I play leagues at a boatload of places. There are two places where you cannot make free agent moves after week 13 in individual leagues, one being the NFFC. The other is a very similar contest with mostly overall contests. It seems like these rules are designed for those, not individual leagues. My idea is far closer to no free agency, but just a subtle change that allows for filling in injury gaps, should you choose to use it that way. I cannot imagine if all leagues everywhere closed after 13 weeks. That would be comical, which is why I think the NFFC should tweak it.

I completely agree with TR as far as not having this in the overall contests. And I also completely agree with Chad as far as having it as part of the contained/individual leagues. I'm not really sure why it should be necessary for the individual leagues to have the exact same rules as the overall contests in this regard. I think the individual leagues should have much more liberal free agent rules. Something like give all playoff teams $10, or better yet just carry over the season long FAAB into the playoffs. You might have to implement a rule that anyone dropped from week 13 on cannot be picked up by anyone, just to remove any notions of collusion. I know you have the "Commissioner Review of Player Drops" provision in the rules, so if you think you can get away with not having to implement that last part then that's fine, but I think it might be useful.

[BigBlueNation]

As an avid NFFC DC player for years, the new rule will greatly reduce my contribution.