Can You Win From Any Draft Slot?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon May 02, 2005 9:02 am

Originally posted by Nag':
Instead of the "my data proves this and that", which is what I keep hearing from you, I'll propose the following specific question: Using data from WCOFF 02(if you can),03,04 and NFFC 04, list the 2 top teams per league and their draft slots. If the top 4 draft slots yields more winning teams than the bottom 4 (by more than 5%), then I will concede that your claim has merit. I suggest excluding the 4-6 middle draft slots for the purpose of this test as we are looking to compare strictly the top and bottom slots. Agreed? nag - i will be using "playoff teams" only. i have that data, and don't want to go back and try and fill in the info for the #2's in the wcoff that didn't make it. i aslo don't have 2002 wcoff data either. call it time constraints.

since i'm going for the hail mary from the start, give me until wed or thursday to throw out the data in a meaningful way. plus, i have a holdem tourney tonight and likely tomorrow.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon May 02, 2005 9:05 am

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
Ridiculous... Final results are not a reflection of draft slot value.

Is Ladainian Tomlinson (#1 or #2 last year) better than Kevin Barlow (average 1.12) by a mile, of course. If the Barlow owner picked up Reuben Droughns and Nick Goings and beat the LT owner, does that mean it was better to draft at 1.12 and take Barlow? paul, the above is where we differ. final results are more a reflection of draft slot than you believe. ALL FA pickups should be equally distributed throughout ALL teams. there is equal % that goings gets picked up by the #1 slot team as the #14 slot team.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon May 02, 2005 9:07 am

Originally posted by Nag':
he is saying it's EASIER to win from the top slots. on the average...bingo! this is gonna be fun.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon May 02, 2005 9:09 am

nag - if i get in your weekly no-limit tourny, do you think you can "take me out"?

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Mon May 02, 2005 9:16 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
nag - if i get in your weekly no-limit tourny, do you think you can "take me out"? I've sucked in that tourney so far, so probably not, but you're welcome to jump and give me & others that chance.

Barflies · Post by **Barflies** » Mon May 02, 2005 12:35 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Is there more luck involved in a 1-week playoff format for $2,500 than in 13 weeks of head-to-head competition? I agree with Gordon that if any playoff format needs to be used to break up that last $2,500 it would have to be over the last three weeks. But again, isn't there already enough at stake during those last three weeks? Greg,

The question shouldn't be is there more luck in a 1-week playoff vs 13 weeks of head-to-head but whether there is more luck in 13 weeks of head-to-head vs 13 weeks of total points. I think most would agree that total points should at least get equal footing with head-to-head. If there's not a clear cut league winner, a playoff is the best way to decide the league championship. Sure there's a decent amount of luck with some good money riding on 1 or 3 weeks but at least both deserving teams have a chance. Increasing the league consolation prize is nice but not close to giving both teams an opportunity to settle it on the field.

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Mon May 02, 2005 12:38 pm

GG

I don't understand why we need the data to sell this idea. If Nag is saying what I think he is then his point should be well taken if we truely want to get this into future NFFC events.

Proving that it's easier to win from the top 3-4 slots could be counter productive. It's important that people believe you can win from any position with the right strategy.

Wouldn't it be easier for Greg to sell if it was marketed something like this:

Even though you can win from any slot - we offer owners the opportunity to maximize their individual strategical choices by bidding for their draft slots.

I'm sure you could word it better than that but my point is - you, Nag, and myself all like the idea but not necessarily for the same reasons. Why not sell it a little softer, thus appealing to the masses and their individual perceptions.

Just trying to help

RC

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon May 02, 2005 1:49 pm

Originally posted by Route C:
I don't understand why we need the data to sell this idea. i guess i don't, but let's see where this takes us. if it can be proven that back-end slots are worse than front-end slots, this could single-handedly change the randomness of draft slot selection. think about it...how many people will want to join an event for $1,250 where they will have a disadvantage right from the start if they get a lower-end pick? of course, this is all contingent upon someone proving this. that's where i come in. again, let's see what the data says. i think the NFFC will be a mixed bag, as there were soooo many new players to this format.

Originally posted by Route C:
It's important that people believe you can win from any position with the right strategy. you can win the Powerball if you pick the right numbers.

Originally posted by Route C:
Wouldn't it be easier for Greg to sell if it was marketed something like this:

Even though you can win from any slot - we offer owners the opportunity to maximize their individual strategical choices by bidding for their draft slots.probably. i haven't gotten to the fine tuning. it would be blind bidding, instead of bidding.

Originally posted by Route C:
my point is - you, Nag, and myself all like the idea but not necessarily for the same reasons. Why not sell it a little softer, thus appealing to the masses and their individual perceptions. i need a speech writer.

[ May 02, 2005, 07:52 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Robert Zarzycki · Post by **Robert Zarzycki** » Mon May 02, 2005 4:30 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
This would be a better place to hold this discussion, rather than hijack my nice Welcome to the NFFC thread!

Totally sorry about that Greg. YOu know how we fantasy football folk, a.k.a. the FFF, get caught up in stuff. Now we're free and clear to write-write-write!!! -z-

Robert Zarzycki · Post by **Robert Zarzycki** » Mon May 02, 2005 4:35 pm

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
Clearly, you can win from any position. Team results are based on; Initial Draft; Add/Drop; Start/Bench; and Luck (injury, etc.). Initial Draft is only 1 element among many, but a very important one.I couldn't of said it better Paul! -z-