Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
Correct. AND that, unlike WR3s, who are mostly drafted anywhere between maybe rounds 6 and 12 (or thereabouts), kickers aren't drafted until rounds 15-20. Why is that so consistent across virtually ALL fantasy football leagues? My contention is that it's because most leagues realize that it's a crap shoot, yet they still like the random chance to win a game now and then based on a wildcard like kickers.
-
Shrink Attack
- Posts: 1802
- Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 6:00 pm
- Location: Memphis, TN
Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
Originally posted by Coltsfan:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by Coltsfan:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
If they're no different than other positions, then why are no DSTs drafted until round 9 or 10 and no kickers til rounds 17-20? :rolleyes: uh point differentiation......
Wayne [/QUOTE]Exactly what I already said regarding the difference between K2 and K14. If they're only separated by 1 PPG, what exactly is the advantage to having K2 over K14? Therefore, where exactly is the supposed strategy?
We can't ALL land Akers ya know. [/QUOTE]Mike,
You are obviously very good with numbers but you often times take seem to manipulate numbers to build a case. You did it in the Tebow thread and it's happening again.
Wayne [/QUOTE]That point doesn't help your argument because he was right about Tebow.
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by Coltsfan:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
If they're no different than other positions, then why are no DSTs drafted until round 9 or 10 and no kickers til rounds 17-20? :rolleyes: uh point differentiation......
Wayne [/QUOTE]Exactly what I already said regarding the difference between K2 and K14. If they're only separated by 1 PPG, what exactly is the advantage to having K2 over K14? Therefore, where exactly is the supposed strategy?
We can't ALL land Akers ya know. [/QUOTE]Mike,You are obviously very good with numbers but you often times take seem to manipulate numbers to build a case. You did it in the Tebow thread and it's happening again.
Wayne [/QUOTE]That point doesn't help your argument because he was right about Tebow.
"Deserve" ain't got nothin' to do with it
---Clint Eastwood in The Unforgiven
---Clint Eastwood in The Unforgiven
Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
I definitely don't want to go into Tebow here. But he was using median QB scoring to make a point and it's a number that is irrelevant. I'll just leave it at that.
Look back through 3-4 of your leagues Mike and tell me that kicker scoring is only 1 ppg difference from the team with the second highest total kicker points to the team with the least amount of kicker points. That would prove your argument if it was true.
Wayne
Look back through 3-4 of your leagues Mike and tell me that kicker scoring is only 1 ppg difference from the team with the second highest total kicker points to the team with the least amount of kicker points. That would prove your argument if it was true.
Wayne
Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
Originally posted by Coltsfan:
I definitely don't want to go into Tebow here. But he was using median QB scoring to make a point and it's a number that is irrelevant. I'll just leave it at that.
Look back through 3-4 of your leagues Mike and tell me that kicker scoring is only 1 ppg difference from the team with the second highest total kicker points to the team with the least amount of kicker points. That would prove your argument if it was true.
Wayne Sorry Wayne, but I cannot leave it at that. I just wasted the past hour or so browsing all 45 pages of the Tebow thread. I knew I'd mentioned median a few times, but never thought I'd focused on that. In reality, I think the ratio of the words "average" or "PPG" to "median" was at least about 20:1. Feel free to go see for yourself.
Here are the only posts I could find of mine that mentioned "median" and I did so in a specific context (admitting that from a H2H perspective, median might actually be more relevant than average):
• In NFFC playoff and payout determination, total points is more important than H2H record. So it seems fair to consider comparisons by Average PPG. However, H2H can't be ignored either, as that is still a valid way to make the playoffs or cash. Therefore, Median PPG is important too, as that indicates what you can expect from a player in any given week.
So far, Tebow is barely a consideration as a starter: 11th in Average PPG and 15th in Median PPG.
• And for his reliable mediocre production ... Since he's been a starter, he is 11th in average PPG and 13th in median. Yes, he gets those numbers in a consistent mediocre way. If the NFFC placed more emphasis in H2H than points, I might like him better. But in NFFC fantasy football, he's a marginal starter. Add in the unlikelihood that he can score 35-40 in a game, and I like him even less. Give me a guy like Romo, Eli, Ben, Rivers or Ryan, who when they score that much, they help your team win a lot more than a consistent 18-22 every game.
• And I do NOT have a bias against him personally. Bottom line for fantasy purposes is that he's been the 11th or 13th best NFFC QB since he took over (average or median), and arguably against some terrible and/or beat-up teams. His current floor is 18-20 PPG, and he's averaging 21 PPG - and that's with all the good fortune provided by his schedule, the strength of his defense, McGahee, Prater, etc..
If ...
(a) you think he can sustain this production when it already takes near-miracles each week to do so, and
(b) you feel the last 8 opponents he's faced are truly representative of what he can expect on a typical full year schedule, and
(c) you prefer to draft a QB later and are ok with one who may or may not end up in the top 14 of NFFC starters... then have at it! He's all yours!
Regarding your point about kickers that were actually STARTED throughout the season vs. the top 14, again, I think you accent my point - that this position is largely luck-based (tho those of us who have a good kicker some years might not agree
). Just because owners didn't START kickers who were among the top 14 in actual points doesn't mean they COULDN'T have. Why do you think we didn't regularly start guys like Gano and Gould when apparently, now that the numbers are all in, maybe we should have? Uh,... maybe because kickers are such a friggin' crap shoot that we're too stubborn to bench our supposed "studs" in favor or Joe Shmo off the wire each week? We just cling to "but my kicker's NFL team is better", etc.? My point on kickers isn't that there isn't ultimately some eventual difference in points, it's that, if these were at ALL predictable, then kickers wouldn't be drafted so late, or half of the top ones each year coming off the wire.
[ January 02, 2012, 06:12 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
I definitely don't want to go into Tebow here. But he was using median QB scoring to make a point and it's a number that is irrelevant. I'll just leave it at that.
Look back through 3-4 of your leagues Mike and tell me that kicker scoring is only 1 ppg difference from the team with the second highest total kicker points to the team with the least amount of kicker points. That would prove your argument if it was true.
Wayne Sorry Wayne, but I cannot leave it at that. I just wasted the past hour or so browsing all 45 pages of the Tebow thread. I knew I'd mentioned median a few times, but never thought I'd focused on that. In reality, I think the ratio of the words "average" or "PPG" to "median" was at least about 20:1. Feel free to go see for yourself.
Here are the only posts I could find of mine that mentioned "median" and I did so in a specific context (admitting that from a H2H perspective, median might actually be more relevant than average):
• In NFFC playoff and payout determination, total points is more important than H2H record. So it seems fair to consider comparisons by Average PPG. However, H2H can't be ignored either, as that is still a valid way to make the playoffs or cash. Therefore, Median PPG is important too, as that indicates what you can expect from a player in any given week.
So far, Tebow is barely a consideration as a starter: 11th in Average PPG and 15th in Median PPG.
• And for his reliable mediocre production ... Since he's been a starter, he is 11th in average PPG and 13th in median. Yes, he gets those numbers in a consistent mediocre way. If the NFFC placed more emphasis in H2H than points, I might like him better. But in NFFC fantasy football, he's a marginal starter. Add in the unlikelihood that he can score 35-40 in a game, and I like him even less. Give me a guy like Romo, Eli, Ben, Rivers or Ryan, who when they score that much, they help your team win a lot more than a consistent 18-22 every game.
• And I do NOT have a bias against him personally. Bottom line for fantasy purposes is that he's been the 11th or 13th best NFFC QB since he took over (average or median), and arguably against some terrible and/or beat-up teams. His current floor is 18-20 PPG, and he's averaging 21 PPG - and that's with all the good fortune provided by his schedule, the strength of his defense, McGahee, Prater, etc..
If ...
(a) you think he can sustain this production when it already takes near-miracles each week to do so, and
(b) you feel the last 8 opponents he's faced are truly representative of what he can expect on a typical full year schedule, and
(c) you prefer to draft a QB later and are ok with one who may or may not end up in the top 14 of NFFC starters... then have at it! He's all yours!
Regarding your point about kickers that were actually STARTED throughout the season vs. the top 14, again, I think you accent my point - that this position is largely luck-based (tho those of us who have a good kicker some years might not agree
). Just because owners didn't START kickers who were among the top 14 in actual points doesn't mean they COULDN'T have. Why do you think we didn't regularly start guys like Gano and Gould when apparently, now that the numbers are all in, maybe we should have? Uh,... maybe because kickers are such a friggin' crap shoot that we're too stubborn to bench our supposed "studs" in favor or Joe Shmo off the wire each week? We just cling to "but my kicker's NFL team is better", etc.? My point on kickers isn't that there isn't ultimately some eventual difference in points, it's that, if these were at ALL predictable, then kickers wouldn't be drafted so late, or half of the top ones each year coming off the wire.[ January 02, 2012, 06:12 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
Ok Mike, you're right.... 
-
larry schechter
- Posts: 113
- Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:00 pm
- Location: New York
Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
People who picked up Akers on the waiver wire--or drafted him in the last round--got lucky.
So did people who drafted Victor Cruz in the last round or got him on the waiver wire.
Give me a reliable kicker on a high scoring offense and I'll gladly take him in round 17-18, rather than see who falls to me in the last round. And even if it's only a 1-point per week edge, that's okay.
So did people who drafted Victor Cruz in the last round or got him on the waiver wire.
Give me a reliable kicker on a high scoring offense and I'll gladly take him in round 17-18, rather than see who falls to me in the last round. And even if it's only a 1-point per week edge, that's okay.
Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
I agree on all counts larry. As long as we HAVE to draft them, I usually jump a round or so early to TRY to grab one on a good team.
Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
The waiver wire isn't luck.
It's one of the skill aspects of this game. You can keep believing it isn't but then you'd be wrong.
It's one of the skill aspects of this game. You can keep believing it isn't but then you'd be wrong.
-
Ted's Cracked Head
- Posts: 2817
- Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:00 pm
Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
Kickers:
Of the top 15 in 2011,
-- 9 of them are on playoff teams
-- 3 were kickers from DAL, OAK, TEN - all came close to making the playoffs
-- the remaining three were from CHI, SD and WASH
The difference may be a couple of points per week but with competition in HSFF being so tough, every point counts.
A 30-40 point drop off could be the difference between cashing and having a shot at the championship round or not.
I used to always think that my late round fliers were more important than securing a top kicker. I hated the thought of missing out on that wr or rb with upside just to grab a kicker who may be worth 20-30 more points but I am rethinking that strategy.
This year I tried to grab Jano but he usually went higher than I cared to draft him so I settled for a kicker on a team that I thought could move the ball, had a decent defense but who might also struggle in the red zone - Miami. That decision cost me some cash.
There is also some skill involved with navigating the bye weeks that adds another layer. If you have an elite kicker who you do not want to drop, you sometimes have to drop a "flier" to pick up a bye week replacement with the hopes of getting your player back after the bye. Sometimes that bites you in the you know what when another team has their eye on your drop. Anything that adds strategy is a good thing in my book.
Akers, David (SF)
186.4 11.6
Bailey, Dan (DAL)
155.8 9.7
Kasay, John (NO)
154.4 9.6
Gostkowski, Stephen (NE)
148 9.2
Crosby, Mason (GB)
147.4 9.2
Janikowski, Sebastian (OAK)
145.4 9.6
Nugent, Mike (CIN)
141.4 8.8
Rackers, Neil (HOU)
140.9 8.8
Gould, Robbie (CHI)
140.1 8.7
Bironas, Rob (TEN)
139.9 8.7
Gano, Graham (WAS)
137.5 8.5
Novak, Nick (SD)
134.5 8.9
Hanson, Jason (DET)
133.5 8.9
Cundiff, Billy (BAL) Q
132 8.8
Bryant, Matt (ATL)
131.2 8.2
After Bryant, total points went from 122 to 82 for the rest of the full time kickers.
Of the top 15 in 2011,
-- 9 of them are on playoff teams
-- 3 were kickers from DAL, OAK, TEN - all came close to making the playoffs
-- the remaining three were from CHI, SD and WASH
The difference may be a couple of points per week but with competition in HSFF being so tough, every point counts.
A 30-40 point drop off could be the difference between cashing and having a shot at the championship round or not.
I used to always think that my late round fliers were more important than securing a top kicker. I hated the thought of missing out on that wr or rb with upside just to grab a kicker who may be worth 20-30 more points but I am rethinking that strategy.
This year I tried to grab Jano but he usually went higher than I cared to draft him so I settled for a kicker on a team that I thought could move the ball, had a decent defense but who might also struggle in the red zone - Miami. That decision cost me some cash.
There is also some skill involved with navigating the bye weeks that adds another layer. If you have an elite kicker who you do not want to drop, you sometimes have to drop a "flier" to pick up a bye week replacement with the hopes of getting your player back after the bye. Sometimes that bites you in the you know what when another team has their eye on your drop. Anything that adds strategy is a good thing in my book.
Akers, David (SF)
186.4 11.6
Bailey, Dan (DAL)
155.8 9.7
Kasay, John (NO)
154.4 9.6
Gostkowski, Stephen (NE)
148 9.2
Crosby, Mason (GB)
147.4 9.2
Janikowski, Sebastian (OAK)
145.4 9.6
Nugent, Mike (CIN)
141.4 8.8
Rackers, Neil (HOU)
140.9 8.8
Gould, Robbie (CHI)
140.1 8.7
Bironas, Rob (TEN)
139.9 8.7
Gano, Graham (WAS)
137.5 8.5
Novak, Nick (SD)
134.5 8.9
Hanson, Jason (DET)
133.5 8.9
Cundiff, Billy (BAL) Q
132 8.8
Bryant, Matt (ATL)
131.2 8.2
After Bryant, total points went from 122 to 82 for the rest of the full time kickers.
My mama says she loves me but she could be jiving too! BB King
-
larry schechter
- Posts: 113
- Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:00 pm
- Location: New York
Why do most leagues still use a DST and K?
Mattjb -- I agree the waiver wire isn't just luck.
Sure, you try to find players who are emerging, have upside, etc., but then luck does come in. You make an intelligent gamble on a player, and it might work out better than your wildest dreams (Cruz), or it might be a disaster (Ryan Torain, who potentially could have been really good as Hightower's replacement).
Nobody who grabbed Akers could have possibly expected him to be as good as he was.
Sure, you try to find players who are emerging, have upside, etc., but then luck does come in. You make an intelligent gamble on a player, and it might work out better than your wildest dreams (Cruz), or it might be a disaster (Ryan Torain, who potentially could have been really good as Hightower's replacement).
Nobody who grabbed Akers could have possibly expected him to be as good as he was.