Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

bobsgym13 · Post by **bobsgym13** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:59 am

I posted this on another thread earlier today:
----------------------------------------------
The primary problem in the skill/luck debate is that everyone is thinking of a different sample size.

10 decisions on WDIS, FAAB, drafting, bye weeks, etc., tell absolutely nothing on a player's ability.

100 decisions tell very little

10,000 decisions reveal the player's skill level

There is such a high level of variability with individual FF decisions that a small sample size CANNOT be used to evaluate skill.
---------------------------------------------

We too quickly point to skill when a player hits a hot streak of good decisions.

Two sports gamblers:

Over his 20 year career, Wayne beats the lines 56% of the time (which would be historically great). Bob beats the lines 51% of the time (equals big losses over time). Approximately 52.5% is breakeven.

Bob could easily beat Wayne over a 100 game stretch. What would the opinions be on these boards?

I would argue that the historical record is of value in pointing to skill level but that any 10, 50, 100 game stretches mean very little.

Fantasy baseball reveals skill level in a much shorter period because of the number of decisions that can be made in a single season.

So, what do you think?

Bob

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:00 am

It is kind of funny that there is a new thread on skill vs luck titled "let's end the skill verses luck debate."

Wayne

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:11 am

80% Luck this year.
20% Skill.

Last year switch the numbers.

bobsgym13 · Post by **bobsgym13** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 8:35 am

Originally posted by Coltsfan:
It is kind of funny that there is a new thread on skill vs luck titled "let's end the skill verses luck debate."

Wayne Read the entire title.

BTW - do you have an opinion?

Bob

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:32 am

Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.

Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.

Therefore, generally speaking (individual & small sample results results may vary), the only logical conclusion is:

Luck = 0%
Skill = 100%

bobsgym13 · Post by **bobsgym13** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:36 am

Originally posted by Nag':
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.

Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.

Therefore, generally speaking (individual & small sample results results may vary), the only logical conclusion is:

Luck = 0%
Skill = 100% Very well said - skill takes a while to reveal due to the level of luck.

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:45 am

Originally posted by Nag':
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.

Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.

Therefore, generally speaking (individual & small sample results results may vary), the only logical conclusion is:

Luck = 0%
Skill = 100% Spoken like a Contest holder, it's all Luck.

renman · Post by **renman** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:01 am

I have said it tons of times.. I liken fantasy football (especially high stakes where the formats are tougher and the participants often expert level and very knowledgable/experienced) to high stakes texas hold em tournaments.

In isolated moments you can identify where luck played a huge part in results... but over a long period of time and bigger sample of results... the more skilled players get identified.

If this was such the luck based event why would so many people invest so much time and money into it? If people were open to that kind of time and investment into luck based things where is the NCFC, National Coin Flipping Championship?

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:11 am

Originally posted by Renman:
If this was such the luck based event why would so many people invest so much time and money into it? If people were open to that kind of time and investment into luck based things where is the NCFC, National Coin Flipping Championship? i guess you haven't seen the BILLIONS of dollars generated each year by state lotteries, slot machines, etc...

people get addicted to games no matter how luck based they are. bad example renman

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:16 am

Originally posted by Raiders:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.

Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.

Therefore, generally speaking (individual & small sample results results may vary), the only logical conclusion is:

Luck = 0%
Skill = 100% Spoken like a Contest holder, it's all Luck.

[/QUOTE]now that is funny!