Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
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Gordon Gekko II
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Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
let's hope renman isn't the spokesman for the "skill" side
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by Raiders:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.
Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.
Therefore, generally speaking (individual & small sample results results may vary), the only logical conclusion is:
Luck = 0%
Skill = 100% Spoken like a Contest holder, it's all Luck. [/QUOTE]Yes, maybe so. But I had this opinion years ago, before I ran any contests.
http://nffcboards.stats.com/cgi-bin/ult ... 678#000005
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.
Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.
Therefore, generally speaking (individual & small sample results results may vary), the only logical conclusion is:
Luck = 0%
Skill = 100% Spoken like a Contest holder, it's all Luck.
[/QUOTE]Yes, maybe so. But I had this opinion years ago, before I ran any contests.http://nffcboards.stats.com/cgi-bin/ult ... 678#000005
For Players. By Players.
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CC's Desperados
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Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by Raiders:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.
Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.
Therefore, generally speaking (individual & small sample results results may vary), the only logical conclusion is:
Luck = 0%
Skill = 100% Spoken like a Contest holder, it's all Luck. [/QUOTE]Yes, maybe so. But I had this opinion years ago, before I ran any contests.
http://nffcboards.stats.com/cgi-bin/ult ... 678#000005 [/QUOTE]I agree 100 %.
I also don't like the way the word skill is used here. I think it should be opinion. Sometime you have a good opinion and make you good decision. Other times you have a poor opinion and make bad decisions. Sometimes a good opinion results in a bad decision based on injury.
quote:Originally posted by Raiders:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.
Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.
Therefore, generally speaking (individual & small sample results results may vary), the only logical conclusion is:
Luck = 0%
Skill = 100% Spoken like a Contest holder, it's all Luck.
[/QUOTE]Yes, maybe so. But I had this opinion years ago, before I ran any contests.http://nffcboards.stats.com/cgi-bin/ult ... 678#000005 [/QUOTE]I agree 100 %.
I also don't like the way the word skill is used here. I think it should be opinion. Sometime you have a good opinion and make you good decision. Other times you have a poor opinion and make bad decisions. Sometimes a good opinion results in a bad decision based on injury.
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by Bob Squad:
I posted this on another thread earlier today:
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The primary problem in the skill/luck debate is that everyone is thinking of a different sample size.
10 decisions on WDIS, FAAB, drafting, bye weeks, etc., tell absolutely nothing on a player's ability.
100 decisions tell very little
10,000 decisions reveal the player's skill level
There is such a high level of variability with individual FF decisions that a small sample size CANNOT be used to evaluate skill.
---------------------------------------------
We too quickly point to skill when a player hits a hot streak of good decisions.
Two sports gamblers:
Over his 20 year career, Wayne beats the lines 56% of the time (which would be historically great). Bob beats the lines 51% of the time (equals big losses over time). Approximately 52.5% is breakeven.
Bob could easily beat Wayne over a 100 game stretch. What would the opinions be on these boards?
I would argue that the historical record is of value in pointing to skill level but that any 10, 50, 100 game stretches mean very little.
Fantasy baseball reveals skill level in a much shorter period because of the number of decisions that can be made in a single season.
So, what do you think?
Bob Gekko,
Where am I wrong?
Bob
I posted this on another thread earlier today:
----------------------------------------------
The primary problem in the skill/luck debate is that everyone is thinking of a different sample size.
10 decisions on WDIS, FAAB, drafting, bye weeks, etc., tell absolutely nothing on a player's ability.
100 decisions tell very little
10,000 decisions reveal the player's skill level
There is such a high level of variability with individual FF decisions that a small sample size CANNOT be used to evaluate skill.
---------------------------------------------
We too quickly point to skill when a player hits a hot streak of good decisions.
Two sports gamblers:
Over his 20 year career, Wayne beats the lines 56% of the time (which would be historically great). Bob beats the lines 51% of the time (equals big losses over time). Approximately 52.5% is breakeven.
Bob could easily beat Wayne over a 100 game stretch. What would the opinions be on these boards?
I would argue that the historical record is of value in pointing to skill level but that any 10, 50, 100 game stretches mean very little.
Fantasy baseball reveals skill level in a much shorter period because of the number of decisions that can be made in a single season.
So, what do you think?
Bob Gekko,
Where am I wrong?
Bob
Luck in FF is like a game of Russian Roulette. The BWaz's of the world only have one bullet to spin - the rest of us have two. It's still mostly luck, but ...
-By Bob (For Gekko)
-By Bob (For Gekko)
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Alex,
This was a snipet from the link of your past post.....
"As a personal example, I can look at my NFFC team and blame my mediocre performance on injuries to my #2 and #3 RBs, my #2 WR and my QBs. But this would all be excuses."
This is excellent Alex, and too true.
When I do well....it's on me.
When I do poorly....it's on me.
Excuses are like a-holes....everyone has them, and they ALL stink!
I believe luck will even out over time, but......
people will continue to rarely talk about their "good" luck, and some will consistently wallow in and continue to make excuses for their "bad" luck.
[ November 05, 2009, 06:13 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]
This was a snipet from the link of your past post.....
"As a personal example, I can look at my NFFC team and blame my mediocre performance on injuries to my #2 and #3 RBs, my #2 WR and my QBs. But this would all be excuses."
This is excellent Alex, and too true.
When I do well....it's on me.
When I do poorly....it's on me.
Excuses are like a-holes....everyone has them, and they ALL stink!
I believe luck will even out over time, but......
people will continue to rarely talk about their "good" luck, and some will consistently wallow in and continue to make excuses for their "bad" luck.
[ November 05, 2009, 06:13 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]
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Gordon Gekko II
- Posts: 647
- Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:00 pm
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by Nag':
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.
Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.
Therefore, generally speaking (individual & small sample results results may vary), the only logical conclusion is:
Luck = 0%
Skill = 100% unfortunately "Over the course of time" probably means about 10,000+ samples (entering 10,000+ events). no one will get there in their lifetimes. we are all stuck in the short run, whch as you say luck reigns. sorry to burst the bubble.
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.
Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.
Therefore, generally speaking (individual & small sample results results may vary), the only logical conclusion is:
Luck = 0%
Skill = 100% unfortunately "Over the course of time" probably means about 10,000+ samples (entering 10,000+ events). no one will get there in their lifetimes. we are all stuck in the short run, whch as you say luck reigns. sorry to burst the bubble.
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Gordon Gekko II
- Posts: 647
- Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:00 pm
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by Bob Squad:
Gekko,
Where am I wrong?
Bob to be honest, i'm having trouble following your post.
Gekko,
Where am I wrong?
Bob to be honest, i'm having trouble following your post.
-
Gordon Gekko II
- Posts: 647
- Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:00 pm
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by Nag':
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.
Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.
now, i might be able to buy this for baseball, as it's gameplay foundation isn't made up of H2H (luck), and the big prize winner isn't determined by a 3 week sprint (very short run).
Luck is an absolute constant in this hobby. Sometimes you have more good luck one year, sometimes you have less. Some teams are lucky, some are not. Some players get hurt, others players win starting jobs at the expense of the injured. Over the course of time, it all evens out in the end.
Skill is a variable. It is something you can attain and improve on with time and effort. It is something that is varies from owner to owner. Over the course of time, it is skill that determines who succeeds and who fails in FF.
now, i might be able to buy this for baseball, as it's gameplay foundation isn't made up of H2H (luck), and the big prize winner isn't determined by a 3 week sprint (very short run).
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ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by BillyWaz:
Alex,
This was a snipet from the link of your past post.....
"As a personal example, I can look at my NFFC team and blame my mediocre performance on injuries to my #2 and #3 RBs, my #2 WR and my QBs. But this would all be excuses."
This is excellent Alex, and too true.
When I do well....it's on me.
When I do poorly....it's on me.
Excuses are like a-holes....everyone has them, and they ALL stink!
I believe luck will even out over time, but......
people will continue to rarely talk about their "good" luck, and some will consistently wallow in and continue to make excuses for their "bad" luck. Like drafting A.Gonzalez and not backing him up with their 19th pick now that they have one? :rolleyes:
[ November 05, 2009, 06:48 PM: Message edited by: FantasyFactor ]
Alex,
This was a snipet from the link of your past post.....
"As a personal example, I can look at my NFFC team and blame my mediocre performance on injuries to my #2 and #3 RBs, my #2 WR and my QBs. But this would all be excuses."
This is excellent Alex, and too true.
When I do well....it's on me.
When I do poorly....it's on me.
Excuses are like a-holes....everyone has them, and they ALL stink!
I believe luck will even out over time, but......
people will continue to rarely talk about their "good" luck, and some will consistently wallow in and continue to make excuses for their "bad" luck.
Like drafting A.Gonzalez and not backing him up with their 19th pick now that they have one? :rolleyes:[ November 05, 2009, 06:48 PM: Message edited by: FantasyFactor ]
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While
Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Bob Squad:
Gekko,
Where am I wrong?
Bob to be honest, i'm having trouble following your post. [/QUOTE]Note to self: Smaller words and sentences and lots of smilies. 
:rolleyes:
quote:Originally posted by Bob Squad:
Gekko,
Where am I wrong?
Bob to be honest, i'm having trouble following your post. [/QUOTE]Note to self: Smaller words and sentences and lots of smilies.
:rolleyes:Luck in FF is like a game of Russian Roulette. The BWaz's of the world only have one bullet to spin - the rest of us have two. It's still mostly luck, but ...
-By Bob (For Gekko)
-By Bob (For Gekko)