Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Raiders
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2007 6:00 pm

Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Post by Raiders » Thu Nov 05, 2009 2:30 pm

Originally posted by Derek Anderson:
I think it is safe to say Kyle Pope and I are proof it is all luck!

Derek "Lucky" Anderson WOW, another guy who thinks it's more Luck. We should keep a running total.

It's now:
Skill=5
Luck=6,with Derek "Lucky" Anderson vote.

John

bobsgym13
Posts: 264
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2006 6:00 pm

Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Post by bobsgym13 » Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:24 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
So let me get this straight:

If someone doesn't draft a good backup to their 7th Round TE pick, then it's legitimate to call that person unskilled.

But if someone else points out that a 3rd Round WR pick wasn't adequately backed up by a readily available late Round pick, then the person pointing this out is being a Monday Morning QB.

I guess I need charts, graphs, and other visual aids to fully understand this logic. here's what i said paul..."if an owner can't overcome an injury to their 7th rounder (esp since he way overperformed the first 7 weeks of the season), they can't be that skilled. sorry. we are talking a 7th rounder here. not a 1st or 2nd."

personally, i role with 1 TE most times in NFFC leagues. if i get burnt, i'll take the medicine. if that's unskilled, so be it.
[/QUOTE]So you think that having a quality backup for your TE is what a skillful owner would do, yet you intentionally don't do it? :confused:

I'm rambling, wordy, and overly-analytical and you just ignore logic. I don't think I can stay in this relationship. :D

Bob
Luck in FF is like a game of Russian Roulette. The BWaz's of the world only have one bullet to spin - the rest of us have two. It's still mostly luck, but ...
-By Bob (For Gekko)

Sandman62
Posts: 3537
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2008 6:00 pm
Location: RI

Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Post by Sandman62 » Fri Nov 06, 2009 1:45 am

Originally posted by Raiders:
Agree, pick a solid TE and fill out your roster. There really only is about 15 Good TE's, unless You want to be that Player who drafts two Te's too play one in a flex, I would never do that, but that's just me. We didn't draft a TE2 to flex, but we DID pick one up off waivers many weeks ago, and this week, we ARE flexing him (Ben Watson)! With Boldin not likely to play, Harvin on bye, and Reggie Bush about one game away from Willis McGahee status (if he doesn't score, he's useless), we're kinda stuck.

Ben will score anyway. :D

Gordon Gekko II
Posts: 647
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:00 pm

Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Post by Gordon Gekko II » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:07 am

Originally posted by Bob Squad:
quote:Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
So let me get this straight:

If someone doesn't draft a good backup to their 7th Round TE pick, then it's legitimate to call that person unskilled.

But if someone else points out that a 3rd Round WR pick wasn't adequately backed up by a readily available late Round pick, then the person pointing this out is being a Monday Morning QB.

I guess I need charts, graphs, and other visual aids to fully understand this logic. here's what i said paul..."if an owner can't overcome an injury to their 7th rounder (esp since he way overperformed the first 7 weeks of the season), they can't be that skilled. sorry. we are talking a 7th rounder here. not a 1st or 2nd."

personally, i role with 1 TE most times in NFFC leagues. if i get burnt, i'll take the medicine. if that's unskilled, so be it.
[/QUOTE]So you think that having a quality backup for your TE is what a skillful owner would do, yet you intentionally don't do it? :confused:

I'm rambling, wordy, and overly-analytical and you just ignore logic. I don't think I can stay in this relationship. :D

Bob
[/QUOTE]in my post above where i mention skill, i'm talking about overcoming an injury to your 7th round pick. it doesn't necessarily mean you need a "quality" backup TE as YOU stated.

your posts are still tough to understand. i even got a PM for someone else saying as much. do u hang out with lance at night? ;)

[ November 06, 2009, 08:08 AM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

Raiders
Posts: 3285
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2007 6:00 pm

Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Post by Raiders » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:24 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by Raiders:
Agree, pick a solid TE and fill out your roster. There really only is about 15 Good TE's, unless You want to be that Player who drafts two Te's too play one in a flex, I would never do that, but that's just me. We didn't draft a TE2 to flex, but we DID pick one up off waivers many weeks ago, and this week, we ARE flexing him (Ben Watson)! With Boldin not likely to play, Harvin on bye, and Reggie Bush about one game away from Willis McGahee status (if he doesn't score, he's useless), we're kinda stuck.

Ben will score anyway. :D
[/QUOTE]Yep, Ben is a Great play this week.

Gordon Gekko II
Posts: 647
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:00 pm

Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Post by Gordon Gekko II » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:32 am

The average “mentality” of high stakes fantasy football player vs the high stakes fantasy baseball player based on my experiences playing both sports:

Football
***We want a H2H format because it makes the contest FUN.
[Gekko aside: H2H has proven to be one of the biggest “luck” variables in fantasy football. There’s a reason why the NFFC has changed its league payouts through the years. Remember back in 2004 when they blindly awarded the $5,000 league title to the team with the best H2H record? Since that point, the league title is now a playoff between the team with the best record and the team with the most points team. ALSO, if you rank in the Top 10% of point scoring teams, you make the Championship round. IN ADDITION, the 3rd place team (next best points team) makes the Championship round. H2H is the foundation of FF, yet Greg and the players here (including me) are doing everything they can to sweep H2H under the rug at season’s end and go by total points]


***We want the largest money winners to be based primarily on a qualified three week sprint.
[Gekko aside: Doesn’t NASCAR do this to? LOL! Anything can happen over a three week timeline. However, most players don’t care how much luck is involved; they just want to have a “shot” at winning]


Baseball
***We want a ROTO format because the BEST TEAM ALWAYS WINS.
[Gekko aside: Since there is no H2H component or “three week sprint”, the best team always wins their league. There’s no “lifting the rug and sweeping” at season’s end because of H2H inadequacies. Baseball owners playing “hurt players” affect all owners the same, unlike in football where active “bye week players” and active “hurt players” only affect the opposing team]


***We want the largest money winners to be based on the entire season.
[Gekko aside: Over the course of the baseball season, I estimate the players on my team play around 2,270 games (1,960 for hitters, 210 for SP, and 100 for RP)...meaning my success/failure is based on 2,270 games played. In football, my team plays 160 games over the course of the season…again; my success/failure is based on those 160 games. And for the three week sprint in football (when the largest prize winners are determined), my team plays a total of 30 games. So 2,270 games vs 160 games (or some may see it as 30 games) to determine the grand prizes. Nag – you were saying something about short run (small sample sizes) vs long run (large sample sizes)?]


Don’t get me wrong. I play fantasy football, even with what I think about it (need tax write-offs). I just don’t walk around kidding myself about what it takes to be successful at it. That’s something a biased person would do, like I was in 2004. Thankfully, I evolved. Enjoy!

renman
Posts: 2837
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2004 6:00 pm

Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Post by renman » Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:53 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Renman:
If this was such the luck based event why would so many people invest so much time and money into it? If people were open to that kind of time and investment into luck based things where is the NCFC, National Coin Flipping Championship? i guess you haven't seen the BILLIONS of dollars generated each year by state lotteries, slot machines, etc...

people get addicted to games no matter how luck based they are. bad example renman
[/QUOTE]Gekko,

I knew after typing that someone would start lising the luck based things people who like to GAMBLE participate in. Though I would have thrown in blackjack too.

The NFFC is seen as a COMPETITION where there happens to be money involved. Gambling isn't seen as a competition.

The competition of fantasy football has WAY more skill connected to results than luck. Though there is definately an amount of luck involved.

It was a perfectly fine comparison. Believe it or not, you and I agree on much of this. You think that luck contributes highly to results. In isolated spots, I agree with you. But you regularly come here touting your good moves and choices (as billywaz highlighted in the other thread). If you are going to tout your "good moves" where "you were right" you are touting your "skill" right? Otherwise you would say "I was LUCKY to be right about Eddie Royal..."

You believe skill is a big part of this too. You are just frustrated. And I was high on A. Gonzalez too but didn't get him on any team. I would have been frustrated too had I had him and lost him.

sportsbettingman
Posts: 1805
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:00 pm

Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Post by sportsbettingman » Fri Nov 06, 2009 3:48 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
The average “mentality” of high stakes fantasy football player vs the high stakes fantasy baseball player based on my experiences playing both sports:

Football
***We want a H2H format because it makes the contest FUN.
[Gekko aside: H2H has proven to be one of the biggest “luck” variables in fantasy football. There’s a reason why the NFFC has changed its league payouts through the years. Remember back in 2004 when they blindly awarded the $5,000 league title to the team with the best H2H record? Since that point, the league title is now a playoff between the team with the best record and the team with the most points team. ALSO, if you rank in the Top 10% of point scoring teams, you make the Championship round. IN ADDITION, the 3rd place team (next best points team) makes the Championship round. H2H is the foundation of FF, yet Greg and the players here (including me) are doing everything they can to sweep H2H under the rug at season’s end and go by total points]


***We want the largest money winners to be based primarily on a qualified three week sprint.
[Gekko aside: Doesn’t NASCAR do this to? LOL! Anything can happen over a three week timeline. However, most players don’t care how much luck is involved; they just want to have a “shot” at winning]


Baseball
***We want a ROTO format because the BEST TEAM ALWAYS WINS.
[Gekko aside: Since there is no H2H component or “three week sprint”, the best team always wins their league. There’s no “lifting the rug and sweeping” at season’s end because of H2H inadequacies. Baseball owners playing “hurt players” affect all owners the same, unlike in football where active “bye week players” and active “hurt players” only affect the opposing team]


***We want the largest money winners to be based on the entire season.
[Gekko aside: Over the course of the baseball season, I estimate the players on my team play around 2,270 games (1,960 for hitters, 210 for SP, and 100 for RP)...meaning my success/failure is based on 2,270 games played. In football, my team plays 160 games over the course of the season…again; my success/failure is based on those 160 games. And for the three week sprint in football (when the largest prize winners are determined), my team plays a total of 30 games. So 2,270 games vs 160 games (or some may see it as 30 games) to determine the grand prizes. Nag – you were saying something about short run (small sample sizes) vs long run (large sample sizes)?]


Don’t get me wrong. I play fantasy football, even with what I think about it (need tax write-offs). I just don’t walk around kidding myself about what it takes to be successful at it. That’s something a biased person would do, like I was in 2004. Thankfully, I evolved. Enjoy!
Baseball's "FUN" comes from the enjoyment of having from a bunch, to a ton of game "action" to watch/follow each day. Heck...folks whine when there aren't any DAY GAMES schduled on a given day. The action is awesome.

I guarantee you that if MLB baseball was played only on Sundays, and a sprinkle of games on Monday night(for 16 weeks)...and there were no games TUE/WED/THU/FRI/SAT...that it also would fail as a roto game. Roto baseball is a much more "fair" setup and tells a better "skill tale" due to so many more games played during a season. (not to mention bigger rosters)

Having to wait all week for action, AND having it roto/all play/total points is a complete bore. Not to mention you can see the difference in "football fan" and "baseball fan" by going to a game live. Totally different game, totally different mindset, and very different fan.

Winning games is paramount in football...winning games in baseball is not, as there will be 160 more games to win, should you lose today. I actually believe THAT is what makes football so enjoyable...the pressure of winning each game. It's like baseball's post season, where wins DO matter...but it's like that all season long. I think THAT is what makes H2H so important in this completely different sport...THE WIN!

When I settle in on Sunday morning, ready for battle...I could care less what the rest of my league does that day...let alone the other leagues. My focus is on my opponent that week...the enemy. I'll hit the waiver wire in ways to c-block my opponent, I'll voodoo curse his players, I'll print out his roster, or program it into DirecTV to see how the battle is going. At the end of the weekend...my only concern is a win or loss. If my scores are high...even better, but it's all about winning that week to me. If my team did enough to make the post season (my goal)...awesome...even more excitement. If not...damn...better luck next year. Why should I woory about everyone else's team?

The gladiator arena of football is nothing like the falling asleep on the couch of baseball.

[ November 06, 2009, 10:25 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."

~Long John Silver

BillyWaz
Posts: 10912
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:00 pm

Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Post by BillyWaz » Fri Nov 06, 2009 4:14 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by Gekko:
The average “mentality” of high stakes fantasy football player vs the high stakes fantasy baseball player based on my experiences playing both sports:

Football
***We want a H2H format because it makes the contest FUN.
[Gekko aside: H2H has proven to be one of the biggest “luck” variables in fantasy football. There’s a reason why the NFFC has changed its league payouts through the years. Remember back in 2004 when they blindly awarded the $5,000 league title to the team with the best H2H record? Since that point, the league title is now a playoff between the team with the best record and the team with the most points team. ALSO, if you rank in the Top 10% of point scoring teams, you make the Championship round. IN ADDITION, the 3rd place team (next best points team) makes the Championship round. H2H is the foundation of FF, yet Greg and the players here (including me) are doing everything they can to sweep H2H under the rug at season’s end and go by total points]


***We want the largest money winners to be based primarily on a qualified three week sprint.
[Gekko aside: Doesn’t NASCAR do this to? LOL! Anything can happen over a three week timeline. However, most players don’t care how much luck is involved; they just want to have a “shot” at winning]


Baseball
***We want a ROTO format because the BEST TEAM ALWAYS WINS.
[Gekko aside: Since there is no H2H component or “three week sprint”, the best team always wins their league. There’s no “lifting the rug and sweeping” at season’s end because of H2H inadequacies. Baseball owners playing “hurt players” affect all owners the same, unlike in football where active “bye week players” and active “hurt players” only affect the opposing team]


***We want the largest money winners to be based on the entire season.
[Gekko aside: Over the course of the baseball season, I estimate the players on my team play around 2,270 games (1,960 for hitters, 210 for SP, and 100 for RP)...meaning my success/failure is based on 2,270 games played. In football, my team plays 160 games over the course of the season…again; my success/failure is based on those 160 games. And for the three week sprint in football (when the largest prize winners are determined), my team plays a total of 30 games. So 2,270 games vs 160 games (or some may see it as 30 games) to determine the grand prizes. Nag – you were saying something about short run (small sample sizes) vs long run (large sample sizes)?]


Don’t get me wrong. I play fantasy football, even with what I think about it (need tax write-offs). I just don’t walk around kidding myself about what it takes to be successful at it. That’s something a biased person would do, like I was in 2004. Thankfully, I evolved. Enjoy!
Baseball's "FUN" comes from the daily grind enjoyment of having from a bunch, to a ton of game "action" to watch/follow.

I guarantee you that if baseball was played only on Sundays, and a sprinkle of games on Monday night...and there were no games TUE/WED/THU/FRI/SAT...that it also would fail as a roto game.

Having to wait all week for action, AND having it roto/all play/total points is a complete bore.
[/QUOTE]I agree 100% with this, Lance.

Baseball is a GRIND, and a WHOLE LOT more work. At some point, you need to look at the hours worked/profit earned ratio.

Honestly, unless you are willing to commit less time to other daily activities (family, friends, job, sleep), it may not be worth it. I personally have a VERY difficult time watching a baseball game on TV, and I imagine the diehard baseball fans DO enjoy watching baseball, so I imagine it doesn't seem like work to them. For me, it is simply "crunching numbers", and I enjoy the "daily fix".

Ironically, Gekko pretty much had a similar point of view (don't have the exact post, but could probably dig it up) when he started playing and coincidentally was not very successful at fantasy baseball. To his credit, he worked hard at baseball, and his been very successful the last few years.

Now, since he hasn't been in the championship round of the NFFC since he and Jason Emma won the 100K in 2004, he is saying that football is more luck (as opposed to when he won, it was mostly skill). That being said, Mark has done well in some smaller leagues since then, and I still regard him as a good player.

Is it truly that he "evolved", or the fact that when people are doing well, they say it is "skill", and when things aren't going well, it is "luck"?

EVERYONE has things work for them, AND against them in a given season.

However, you rarely see someone starting posts about how "this broke their way", but when injuries hit/things don't go someone's way, it seems like the same people year in and year out are always there to let EVERYONE know about it. :(

I got sucked into arguments for YEARS with another owner, and I am embarrassed by all of it. The "I never get a break/everything is tougher for me" posts REALLY get to me (truly one of my biggest pet peeves), but I am not going to go down that road again.

I honestly don't have the time or energy to do it.

Good "skill/decision making" to everyone this weekend! :D

[ November 06, 2009, 10:17 AM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

bobsgym13
Posts: 264
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2006 6:00 pm

Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Post by bobsgym13 » Fri Nov 06, 2009 4:50 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Bob Squad:
quote:Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
So let me get this straight:

If someone doesn't draft a good backup to their 7th Round TE pick, then it's legitimate to call that person unskilled.

But if someone else points out that a 3rd Round WR pick wasn't adequately backed up by a readily available late Round pick, then the person pointing this out is being a Monday Morning QB.

I guess I need charts, graphs, and other visual aids to fully understand this logic. here's what i said paul..."if an owner can't overcome an injury to their 7th rounder (esp since he way overperformed the first 7 weeks of the season), they can't be that skilled. sorry. we are talking a 7th rounder here. not a 1st or 2nd."

personally, i role with 1 TE most times in NFFC leagues. if i get burnt, i'll take the medicine. if that's unskilled, so be it.
[/QUOTE]So you think that having a quality backup for your TE is what a skillful owner would do, yet you intentionally don't do it? :confused:

I'm rambling, wordy, and overly-analytical and you just ignore logic. I don't think I can stay in this relationship. :D

Bob
[/QUOTE]in my post above where i mention skill, i'm talking about overcoming an injury to your 7th round pick. it doesn't necessarily mean you need a "quality" backup TE as YOU stated.

your posts are still tough to understand. i even got a PM for someone else saying as much. do u hang out with lance at night? ;)
[/QUOTE]Sorry, I assumed that you sometimes pick TE's in the first 7 rounds. If you don't then my bad.

And when I said I was wordy, rambling and overly analytical why did you think it was necessary to go with the PM comment?

Bob
Luck in FF is like a game of Russian Roulette. The BWaz's of the world only have one bullet to spin - the rest of us have two. It's still mostly luck, but ...
-By Bob (For Gekko)

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