Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by Nag':
if luck effects all players equally?

Or did I misunderstand something? you did, in the SHORT run, i don't believe your assumption about luck is correct.

[Nag']

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
if luck effects all players equally?

Or did I misunderstand something? you did, in the SHORT run, i don't believe your assumption about luck is correct. [/QUOTE]So in the short run, does the guy who spends 5 hours/week benefit more from luck that the guy who spends 25??

This is getting good Gekko. I want to see how far you can take this logic.

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by Nag':
So in the short run, does the guy who spends 5 hours/week benefit more from luck that the guy who spends 25??

This is getting good Gekko. I want to see how far you can take this logic. he could!

[Nag']

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
So in the short run, does the guy who spends 5 hours/week benefit more from luck that the guy who spends 25??

This is getting good Gekko. I want to see how far you can take this logic. he could! [/QUOTE]Good way to end it, my man. When digging, first rule is: stop!

[renman]

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Renman:
Gekko,

You said you won 20K in assorted fantasy football leagues over the last 3 years.

What percentage of that was due to luck and what percentage is due to skill?

I would argue it was 75% your good/great skill, and 25% things going your way via luck or good fortune.

Where would you put it?

ps. other people can give their opinion as well on the percentage of luck vs skill. Renman – I don’t like to put a skill/luck % on fantasy football. If I had to guess, I’d put it in relative terms: Fantasy Football has about 3X the amount of luck in it than fantasy baseball. So if Baseball is 75% skill, then that would put fantasy football around 25%.

How I like to think of skill/luck in fantasy football:
As long as someone has an average knowledge of fantasy football, they will almost be as good as someone who is deemed an “expert”. Pouring in countless hours (25+ a week) into fantasy football gives you some edge over a guy like me who only puts in less than 5 hours a week, but most of your edge is washed away by the luck factor of H2H and the 3 week sprint.

Look at it this way, if I took a guy off the street with no knowledge of fantasy baseball nor fantasy football, and had him start playing both sports, I’d say with 99% confidence he’d win his first league in fantasy football. [/QUOTE]Gekko,

I understand your point about fantasy football as compared to fantasy baseball. I competed in, enjoyed, and had great success with fantays baseball for 15+ years. I know all about the distinct differences between the two.

My question is how you would break down the skill/luck percentage in fantasy football. This has nothing to do with fantasy baseball. If you feel luck is such a huge part of fantasy football results I am left wondering why you would be here complaining about it or talking about it this much. I mean, if it almost all luck, how can you invest much interest or passion in it?

I guess we will agree to disagree. I believe you won 20k in fantasy football leagues over the last 3 years primarily due to your fantasy football skill as opposed to it being mostly connected to luck.

As I said, I would put it at 75% skill, 25% luck.

[bobsgym13]

Gekko

Shouldn't your contention that the problem is H2H and the 3 wk sprint bolster my argument that lifetime points average is the best way to judge skill level?

Bob

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
So in the short run, does the guy who spends 5 hours/week benefit more from luck that the guy who spends 25??

This is getting good Gekko. I want to see how far you can take this logic. he could! [/QUOTE]Good way to end it, my man. When digging, first rule is: stop! [/QUOTE]sorry nag - i was at the gym and then driving home. since i gave up my blackberry, i have no way of respondng. just got home now and will respond later tonight. i'm trying to find out where you got confused. i'll find it and post later 2nite.

[KOTRAX]

I AM JUST WAITING FOR THE WRITE UP COMPARING FOOTBALL VERSUS BASEBALL BY G.G.


I AM SURE IT IS GOING TO BE QUITE INTERESTING.

[da bears]

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
So in the short run, does the guy who spends 5 hours/week benefit more from luck that the guy who spends 25??

This is getting good Gekko. I want to see how far you can take this logic. he could! [/QUOTE]Good way to end it, my man. When digging, first rule is: stop! [/QUOTE]sorry nag - i was at the gym and then driving home. since i gave up my blackberry, i have no way of respondng. just got home now and will respond later tonight. i'm trying to find out where you got confused. i'll find it and post later 2nite. [/QUOTE]No blackberry anymore. I don't think I could live without mine.

[Shrink Attack]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by Gekko:
The average “mentality” of high stakes fantasy football player vs the high stakes fantasy baseball player based on my experiences playing both sports:

Football
***We want a H2H format because it makes the contest FUN.
[Gekko aside: H2H has proven to be one of the biggest “luck” variables in fantasy football. There’s a reason why the NFFC has changed its league payouts through the years. Remember back in 2004 when they blindly awarded the $5,000 league title to the team with the best H2H record? Since that point, the league title is now a playoff between the team with the best record and the team with the most points team. ALSO, if you rank in the Top 10% of point scoring teams, you make the Championship round. IN ADDITION, the 3rd place team (next best points team) makes the Championship round. H2H is the foundation of FF, yet Greg and the players here (including me) are doing everything they can to sweep H2H under the rug at season’s end and go by total points]


***We want the largest money winners to be based primarily on a qualified three week sprint.
[Gekko aside: Doesn’t NASCAR do this to? LOL! Anything can happen over a three week timeline. However, most players don’t care how much luck is involved; they just want to have a “shot” at winning]


Baseball
***We want a ROTO format because the BEST TEAM ALWAYS WINS.
[Gekko aside: Since there is no H2H component or “three week sprint”, the best team always wins their league. There’s no “lifting the rug and sweeping” at season’s end because of H2H inadequacies. Baseball owners playing “hurt players” affect all owners the same, unlike in football where active “bye week players” and active “hurt players” only affect the opposing team]


***We want the largest money winners to be based on the entire season.
[Gekko aside: Over the course of the baseball season, I estimate the players on my team play around 2,270 games (1,960 for hitters, 210 for SP, and 100 for RP)...meaning my success/failure is based on 2,270 games played. In football, my team plays 160 games over the course of the season…again; my success/failure is based on those 160 games. And for the three week sprint in football (when the largest prize winners are determined), my team plays a total of 30 games. So 2,270 games vs 160 games (or some may see it as 30 games) to determine the grand prizes. Nag – you were saying something about short run (small sample sizes) vs long run (large sample sizes)?]


Don’t get me wrong. I play fantasy football, even with what I think about it (need tax write-offs). I just don’t walk around kidding myself about what it takes to be successful at it. That’s something a biased person would do, like I was in 2004. Thankfully, I evolved. Enjoy! Baseball's "FUN" comes from the enjoyment of having from a bunch, to a ton of game "action" to watch/follow each day. Heck...folks whine when there aren't any DAY GAMES schduled on a given day. The action is awesome.

I guarantee you that if MLB baseball was played only on Sundays, and a sprinkle of games on Monday night(for 16 weeks)...and there were no games TUE/WED/THU/FRI/SAT...that it also would fail as a roto game. Roto baseball is a much more "fair" setup and tells a better "skill tale" due to so many more games played during a season. (not to mention bigger rosters)

Having to wait all week for action, AND having it roto/all play/total points is a complete bore. Not to mention you can see the difference in "football fan" and "baseball fan" by going to a game live. Totally different game, totally different mindset, and very different fan.

Winning games is paramount in football...winning games in baseball is not, as there will be 160 more games to win, should you lose today. I actually believe THAT is what makes football so enjoyable...the pressure of winning each game. It's like baseball's post season, where wins DO matter...but it's like that all season long. I think THAT is what makes H2H so important in this completely different sport...THE WIN!

When I settle in on Sunday morning, ready for battle...I could care less what the rest of my league does that day...let alone the other leagues. My focus is on my opponent that week...the enemy. I'll hit the waiver wire in ways to c-block my opponent, I'll voodoo curse his players, I'll print out his roster, or program it into DirecTV to see how the battle is going. At the end of the weekend...my only concern is a win or loss. If my scores are high...even better, but it's all about winning that week to me. If my team did enough to make the post season (my goal)...awesome...even more excitement. If not...damn...better luck next year. Why should I woory about everyone else's team?

The gladiator arena of football is nothing like the falling asleep on the couch of baseball. [/QUOTE]This is a very fine post of which I'm in 100% agreement.