Here's Tom's FBG Team: Have At It

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 8:58 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Sounds like someone who knows a flawed analogy when he sees one.

I'd say the same thing if I hadn't drafted Wayne. I don't see any reason to compare Wayne to a washed-up Marvin Harrison. We'll see....I'd much rather be jumping the bandwagon a year early than a year late. Wayne was injured at the end of last year also; and including the playoff game only averaged around 10 ppg over the last 5 games. That was with Clark and Collie out. He's aging, they have a lot of mouths to feed and Manning may or may not start the season....and if he does start it will be without preparation.
Discount the analogy if you want, but at the absolute best you got fair value where you drafted him, imo. And I believe you over paid.
Btw, Manning is currently not healthy...so you do already have a convenient out.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:02 am

Manning is the X factor without a doubt and I've acknowledged that. It's why I wasn't gung-ho about getting Wayne. But grabbing a proven Top 5 PPR stud WR in the third round was simply far too good of value as I said. Wayne did not suffer a potentially career-threatening injury last season so comparing him to Harrison has no validity. Same with the fact Harrison was four years older and no longer the No. 1 WR in the Indy offense. All of those significant differences make the analogy highly flawed with all due respect.

I'm not oblivious to the concerns about Wayne. It's why I passed on him in the second. However, to get him as a No. 2 WR in a PPR league in the third round is crazy value if Manning is healthy. The idea that he'll somehow go from 111 receptions to 60 in a year's time is rather difficult to agree with. It's one thing to project a decline; it's another to say his career is essentially going to be over - as was the case with Harrison in 2008.

Again, if Manning and Wayne are healthy I'll happily wager that Wayne tops 60 receptions. If anyone in New York or Vegas for the NFFC wants to bet with me on that they know where to find me.

[ August 23, 2011, 03:07 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:06 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

Again, if Manning and Harrison are healthy I'll happily wager that Harrison tops 60 receptions. If anyone in New York or Vegas for the NFFC wants to bet with me on that they know where to find me.

I'll take this bet...no way Harrison tops 60 receptions. I'll even give you odds....2-1 for 10 K

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:06 am

Gee, do you think maybe Manning having one of his worst 5-game stretches in his career at the end of last year affected Wayne? Maybe all those picks didn't keep his offense (which includes Wayne) on the field? :rolleyes:

We had both in our Classic and missed the playoffs by 7.8 pts, largely due to Manning.

[ August 23, 2011, 03:10 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:07 am

Fixed.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:17 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Manning is the X factor without a doubt and I've acknowledged that. It's why I wasn't gung-ho about getting Wayne. But grabbing a proven Top 5 PPR stud WR in the third round was simply far too good of value as I said. Wayne did not suffer a potentially career-threatening injury last season so comparing him to Harrison has no validity. Same with the fact Harrison was four years older and no longer the No. 1 WR in the Indy offense. All of those significant differences make the analogy highly flawed with all due respect.

I'm not oblivious to the concerns about Wayne. It's why I passed on him in the second. However, to get him as a No. 2 WR in a PPR league in the third round is crazy value if Manning is healthy. The idea that he'll somehow go from 111 receptions to 60 in a year's time is rather difficult to agree with. It's one thing to project a decline; it's another to say his career is essentially going to be over - as was the case with Harrison in 2008.

Again, if Manning and Harrison are healthy I'll happily wager that Harrison tops 60 receptions. If anyone in New York or Vegas for the NFFC wants to bet with me on that they know where to find me.

And the entire point has completely eluded you. The point is, Wayne is 33 years old....which is "old" by NFL WR standards. Do WR's over 33 have good years...absolutely...but many start to decline in that age range. Granted, Harrison was 36 the year of his complete fall off....but it also happened the year Manning missed all of TC. which I suspect also factored into it.
Wayne is also in the last year of his contract which may also factor into it. Additionally, as someone pointed out Manning is also 3 years older than he was in 2008 which also may factor into it. They also, as I've said, have a number of other mouths to feed. I agrre with you that if Manning is "relatively" healthy and Wayne stays healthy, Wayne will probably catch over 60 receptions. Really didn't expect that one number to be all you pulled out of the analogy. But he'll have to do waaaaay better than that to warraant an early 3rd round pick. He could go 80 - 1000 -5 and not warrant that pick. :rolleyes:

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:21 am

Rich, the point hasn't eluded me. You believe Wayne is due for a decline, a rather massive one given your analogy. I think your analogy is highly flawed and have pointed out several reasons why. To project Wayne to suffer nearly a 50% decline in receptions (which is what you're doing comparing him to 2008 Harrison) makes little sense to me, assuming Manning is healthy.

All Wayne needs to do to justify where I drafted him is do what he's done for the past seven seasons - catch 75+ passes, top 1,000 yards receiving and get 6+ TDs. Considering his history of success, Manning's obvious talent (when healthy, of course) and the Indy offensive approach, I'd say the chances of Wayne reaching those numbers are rather high.

That makes him too good of a value for me to pass up in the third round of a PPR draft. Obviously, we'll see how it all plays out but the safest bet is that Wayne will reach the numbers I projected and be nothing remotely close to what Marvin Harrison was in 2008 when his career was over.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:33 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
Gee, do you think maybe Manning having one of his worst 5-game stretches in his career at the end of last year affected Wayne? Maybe all those picks didn't keep his offense (which includes Wayne) on the field? :rolleyes:

We had both in our Classic and missed the playoffs by 7.8 pts, largely due to Manning. During that 5 game stretch Manning averaged almost 250 ypg and had 10 TD's and 2 int's. That equates to almost 4000 - 32 - and 7 int's over a full season......doesn't seem all that bad to me. And if he came up a little short....maybe Wayne had something to do with it.

But my guess is Wayne's production over that period had a lot more to do with his knee injury than a fall off by Manning.

And if Manning IS decling, that probably doesn't bode all that well for this year considering he isn't able to practice.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:34 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Rich, the point hasn't eluded me. You believe Wayne is due for a decline, a rather massive one given your analogy. I think your analogy is highly flawed and have pointed out several reasons why. To project Wayne to suffer nearly a 50% decline in receptions (which is what you're doing comparing him to 2008 Harrison) makes little sense to me, assuming Manning is healthy.

All Wayne needs to do to justify where I drafted him is do what he's done for the past seven seasons - catch 75+ passes, top 1,000 yards receiving and get 6+ TDs. Considering his history of success, Manning's obvious talent (when healthy, of course) and the Indy offensive approach, I'd say the chances of Wayne reaching those numbers are rather high.

That makes him too good of a value for me to pass up in the third round of a PPR draft. Obviously, we'll see how it all plays out but the safest bet is that Wayne will reach the numbers I projected and be nothing remotely close to what Marvin Harrison was in 2008 when his career was over. LOL....you just don't get it. :rolleyes:

Two Red Ducks · Post by **Two Red Ducks** » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:42 am

Re: Two Red Ducks. There was a period in 2008 where I won some big pots with two red deuces, flopped sets etc. a duck is a deuce in poker so it sort of caught on. As mentioned I'm launching a sports site and the thinking was to switch all team names to the site name, but things are moving slowly so sticking with old reliable for now...haha.

A portion of what the site caters to is NFL prognostication type stuff. The Colts are one of the teams I have a very very very strong opinion on this year, before there was doubt on Manning's health. So I'll chime in on Wayne, who has been one of the most consistent WRs over the past 8yrs

Despite only being on a few of my teams last yr, I fell in love with Garcon's skill set. I see the team deteriorating in a big way but Garcon having a beast of a year (by default Wayne would see a decline if that happened) Now with Manning in question, everything is in question. The bar has been lowered for the Colts now, which lessens the value of my extreme views on the team. yet their win number still sits between 9.5 and 10. Perhaps it was me but I saw Manning have some sick chemistry with Garcon down the stretch last yr where Wayne showed some decline...if that continues....
Bullish Garcon Bearish Colts/Wayne.