LOCKS of the week

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 4:17 am

I know a few of us like to prognosticate the outcomes of the NFL games. Not to advocate anything outside of playing in a pick contest or a visit to Vegas, I figured those of us that like to think they know what they are doing in this arena should have a forum to see who is the best.

Lines used have to be verifiable, i.e., a Vegas casino or a recognized off shore (such as the NFFC sponsor.)

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 4:58 am

My theme for the week is “live dogs.” Look for these three underdogs to each be outright winners this week (although you may as well go ahead and take the points):

Rams +7: Everyone is touting how great the Sea D has been, any team that played TB, NO and SF would look like world-beaters at this point. Don’t believe the hype and remember that this is still the Rams’ division. Look for the Sea offense to struggle and the Rams to pull this one off.

Panthers +5.5: The return of S. Davis will have a major impact on the Panthers. Move over Foster and let S. Davis expose the Den run D for the frauds that they are. The Broncos running game will be non-existent and the Panthers D will capitalize on numerous Jake Plummer mistakes, look for the Panthers to win this one.

Chargers +3: Drew Brees has his NFL career on the line. Marty will have his team ready to beat the luckiest team in the NFL. The Jags cannot move the ball on anyone and they do not have a way to stop LT. The line on this game should be pk’em at worst, take the three points and count your money.

Not that it matters but I’m 6 for my last 6 on my weekly radio show. I expect to make that 9 for 9 this week.

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 5:29 am

Good picks, NNOY, although it hurts when you lump the Saints O in with TB and SF.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 5:44 am

The way they played in Week 1 they deserve to be on that list. Get the Deuce back in game shape and they will be removed from the blacklist. Look how poorly they played last week against the Cardinal and you see why I decided to include them.

KW3 · Post by **KW3** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 9:08 am

nnoy

Very hard to go with SD against anybody. JAX won a few close games but the D is for real. Brees is in for a rough outing. I'm going with JAX -2.5.

MIN -3.5 is a solid play. I don't give HOU much of a shot in this game. MIN will be fine without Bennet and Smith. 2 weeks to get ready for it. Moss will have a monster day and MIN will win by 10+.

Giants +3.5 over Dallas. Dallas is a one dimensional team on O. The Giants pass D is much better than most people seem to think. The LBs Emmons and Green are very good against the pass. Will Peterson and Allen are 2 of the best young CBs in the NFL. Peterson will have no problem with Keyshawn. He's big enough to handle him and he's much faster. Allen has the speed and quickness to run with Glenn. Antonio Bryant could be a problem. He has a big advantage over Terry Cousin. The Giants have an upcoming young CB in Frank Walker. He played a lot last week. He had an INT TD called back for a weak holding call on the Giants. If Walker is on the field vs Bryant than that matchup favors the Giants. Walker is 6 feet and 200lbs and he can fly.

I expect the Giants to have a big day on offense. Toomer vs the #3 rookie CB? Are you kidding me? Shockey will also have a huge day. Giants are going to roll to a 7+ point win.

nnoy · Post by **nnoy** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 9:42 am

Well, no chance the board goes 6-0 now. My co-host and our guest picker both went Jax as well, we’ll see what happens.

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:04 am

Have to disagree with your assessment of the Dallas-NYG game as the Giants have lost Shaun Williams for the year and Parcells has had two weeks to get ready for this one. Toomer will draw Terrence Newman and Roy Williams, the hitter, not the receiver, which will not bode well for Amani or Shockey for that matter. Would look at Carter or Hilliard for good games. Still a rested and well prepped Dallas team should cover at home.

KW3 · Post by **KW3** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:44 am

Tamu

Losing Williams isn't a big deal. The rookie Wilson has better speed, range, and ball skills. He's been playing better the past 2 games than Williams has over the past 1.5 yrs. BTW, the Cowboys are down 2 starters in a very thin secondary. The Giants are very deep at CB with 4 solid players. Advantage: Giants.

Newman doesn't usually follow around a #1 WR. He plays on the left side. Toomer is usually on the right. It looks like the 7th round rookie will have Toomer with S help. If Roy Williams is the man to offer S help than how does that "not bode well" for Shockey? He will have a field day vs the much smaller and slower S Tony Dixon or any of the Cowboy LBs. Even if they put Roy Williams on Shockey he still has the athletic advantage. Williams isn't very good in man coverage. He can't handle Shockey.

Tim Carter will also be a huge mismatch over the nickel CB(undrafted rookie Nate Jones).

Look for a big day all around for the Giants offense. They are going to crush the Cowboys on Sunday.

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:22 am

You're forgetting Parcells has had two weeks to get ready for the Giants so what defense awaits the Giants is an unknown. As for the Giants corners, they have sucked for three years and continue to suck. Neither of the Will's have lived up to their billing or draft selection and the stats don't lie. The stats show Dallas giving up 211 passing yds per game while the Giants are allowing 227 yds per game. Considering the teams they have beaten the last 3 weeks, a combined 4-8 record with only one half of Bret Favre, the stats really don't bode well for the Giants. And the key word you used to describe Gibral Wilson was "rookie". I expect the Dallas veterans to light this bunch up. I don't know what the over is on this game but if it's in the low 50's I'd bet the over.

KW3 · Post by **KW3** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:01 pm

Tamu...get your fact straight. You really have no idea what you're talking about.

#1. You want to downgrade the Giants wins? OK. Giants beat Cle, Wash, and GB. Who did Dallas beat this year? Answer: Cle and Wash. And the only reason they beat Wash was because of several brutal calls by the refs.

#2. Favre couldn't even get a first down in the first half. The Giants shut him down before they knocked his ass out. Than they crushed the backup as well and finished his season.

#3. Key word "rookie". Wilson is a rookie but he's playing SS. It's a lot harder to get a mismatch in the passing game at SS over a CB. In the 2 games he's played he's been the best guy on the D. On the other side we have TWO "rookies" at CB and nickel for Dallas. Tell us who has the bigger weakness?

#4. Will Peterson hasn't lived up to his 3rd round draft status? That's statement is ridiculous. He is easily a top 20 CB who excells in coverage and in runs support. You usually don't find a quality starting CB in round 3. If you do...it's a steal.

#5. Will Allen is a shutdown CB. You said check the stats. Go ahead and check them before posting this nonsense. Since Allen has been playing the Giants pass D has been in the top 10 consistently. In 02, with Allen and Peterson as full time starters the Giants pass D, 3rd down efficiency, yards per pass, and first downs were top 10. The scoring D was #3 in 02 because the pass D, and more specifically, the CBs were so top notch.

Last year, the Giants pass D was on their way to a top 5 finish. Than they suffered because Allen and Peterson were both out with injuries. Before they went down the Giants were shutting teams down in 03. Early in the year, three 10 win teams in a row failed to throw for more than 100 yards in a game. They held Tom Brady and McNabb to the worst games of their careers. Both guys threw for less than 95 yards. Brady was 1-11 on 3rd down. The Giants D only allowed 7 points to the eventuall SB champs. Than Peterson went out the next week. Followed by Allen. That's why the Giants pass D stats were down in 03. Before those guys got hurt they held 3 teams(all with 10 wins, 1 SB champ, and one team in the NFC Champ) to a total of 289 passing yards over 3 games.

Finally, let's take a look at the CBs in this game:

Giants: Will Allen, Will Peterson, Terry Cousin and Frank Walker. All with starting experience.

Dallas: Terrence Newman, a 7th round rookie and first time starter Reeves, an undrafted rookie out of Rutgers Nate Jones(who made the team because of ST play), and a street FA signed about a week ago. Only one 2nd year guy with starting exp.

Advantage at CB goes to who?