Skill versus Luck

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 3:42 am

Was it luck, good fortune, destiny or karma that allowed me to win this past years Main Event?

I am leaning toward the destiny thing over skill for my effort. I like to think that skill put me in a position to win it all and some combination of the factors above took me the rest of the way.

I would give skill the edge but recognize that there are numerous factors that have to go perfect for one person to come out on top in a challenge like this or our home leagues for that matter.

I think that most players believe that skill will overcome bad "luck" and that is why we all continue to come back each year a little hungrier. We know that if things just fall into place for us, we can be successful. Is this because we feel we are going to be lucky? No. It is because they believe they have the skill set to overcome a little bad luck.

If they thought that luck played a larger roll, they might stop playing and with the growth that this industry is experiencing, my experience tells me otherwise.

To quote an industry expert, "We make our own luck".

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 6:44 am

Skill or luck? Doesn't matter! We play the game for the same reasons that we debate this topic.
OPINION!!
Everybody has one and most of us believe ours is the correct one. Isn't it funny to listen to doctors...bankers...salespeople...iron workers..painters..etc. during an NFL game.
Most have never coached and few have even played but every single one thinks they're more qualified to make an in game decision than Parcells..Cowhler..Holmgren or whoever.

Don't get me wrong..I think it's fun too or I wouldn't play this crazy game....but if you step away from your ego for a minute and just observe....it's amazing how stubborn and arrogant a bunch of inexperienced football people can be. NFL coaches make millions...so if we're so all knowing...why aren't we cashing those checks?

Sometimes we really take ourselves far too seriously when most of us are just full of it.."opinion that is".

Luck or skill??? Nobody knows for sure but one thing is predictable...most think they do.

williamhare · Post by **williamhare** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:01 am

I see luck and skill as intertwined depending
on what category of player you are;with the
players distributed in a bellcurve:

1) 10%- They draft Zach Hilton and take Vandy
off the board as the #2 Kicker and spend
Waiver $$ irresponsibly. No amount of luck
will help them win their league.

2) 20%- Little inherent luck in their DNA. They
know and watch football, but never translated
all to fantasy mindset. Every 10 years they
will win a league title.... on luck.

3) 30%- They make a run every 4 years. Rely too
much on last years' stats and either lack or
do not trust instincts. Usually make wrong
call when deciding between two players. Skill
and luck equally average.

4) 20%- Good players who read and watch as much
as possible. Use cheatsheets as a guide to
understanding opponents rather than a list
for themselves. Good instincts and understand
nuances of the game. They compete for
titles nearly every year. Dominate with a
high pick. A little luck and these guys are
off to the races.

5) 10%- Not too different from above. They will
go for that extra detail before making draft
or lineup decisions. These players have the
IT factor going for them and can even recover
from a poor draft by playing the Waiver wire
to perfection. Expect half of the NFFC GRAND
PRIZE winners to come from this elite group.
Draft position of little consequenes for these
studs/studettes. Luck is welcomed, but hardly
needed.

HMan83

nostradamross · Post by **nostradamross** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:22 am

i'm with ted. i think you need a certain amount of skill before you can take advantage of luck.

renman · Post by **renman** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 12:52 am

There is ZERO CHANCE you can succeed in the NFFC if you do not have a LARGE amount of fantasy football skill coming into the event. Once the games start and highly skilled players are competiting, there will be snap shot moments where good or bad fortune makes a difference in ultimate success or failure...

But it all starts with the requirement of the player being HIGHLY SKILLED to ever take advantage of some good fortune... A poorly skilled fantasy player will lose in the NFFC every single season no matter how lucky he/she might be...

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:47 am

This thread has substituted the word "skilled" for the word "informed".

If it were skill...then the one who studies the most would always win.

This is not a spelling bee it's FF.....you get info...you process info.....you give it your best guess....where's the skill in that?

Can't be compared to chess either. You're always in control in chess...until your 1st wrong move.
You're never in control in FF...after your 1st move.

[ March 01, 2007, 09:49 AM: Message edited by: Route C ]

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:43 am

I think we're on the same page snake....although that places us squarely in the minority. Personally...I wouldn't have it any other way!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:26 am

Originally posted by Route C:
This thread has substituted the word "skilled" for the word "informed".

If it were skill...then the one who studies the most would always win.

This is not a spelling bee it's FF.....you get info...you process info.....you give it your best guess....where's the skill in that?

Can't be compared to chess either. You're always in control in chess...until your 1st wrong move.
You're never in control in FF...after your 1st move.

Very true.

Billy has mentioned you are playing the other players...but that also must factor in lack of control of the outcomes.

Never again should Fantasy Football be compared to poker. Backgammon and poker...ok...chess and poker...fine...but fantasy football and poker...not even close. Poker gives you WAY more control.

~Lance