Skill vs Luck?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:11 am

"Perhaps it's that perfect mix of skill and luck that keeps us all coming back for more..."

100% correct.

No luck = no popularity = no money.

If poker was 100% skill...the card rooms would go belly up.

~Lance

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:12 am

Originally posted by Nag':
As a personal example, I can look at my NFFC team and blame my mediocre performance on injuries to my #2 and #3 RBs, my #2 WR and my QBs. But this would all be excuses. The truth is I made ONE SINGLE mistake in my draft. Everything else could've stayed the same - every pick, every injury to follow, etc. The one mistake was drafting A.Smith instead of Favre (yes, it is sad). The difference that one pick would've made? Having best record and most points vs where I am now - out of contention. Conclusion: nothing to do with luck. Just my own decisions. Nicely put. Ultimately, our fate is determined by our own decisions.

It's amazing how many people miss that point.

Sound Advice · Post by **Sound Advice** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:13 am

One thing I never hear brought up is the simple fact that FF is just plain HARDER to master than any of the other fantasy games, roto or otherwise.
I think that is often mistaken for luck.
I also feel that is the allure, and why so many come back year after year.

It's like being lucky that your cat will do want you want.
It takes a special skill.

A dog will do what you say if you act like the leader. FF takes a certain finesse the others don't.

RI WORKHORSE · Post by **RI WORKHORSE** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:16 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Okay, I'll weigh in: Great post KOQ, great post Nag. You hit it on the head. Of course, luck is involved and it's the same good or bad luck for everyone. All you can do is put yourself in position to win and let the games play out.

The beauty of fantasy sports is that there's always another season after this one!!! As long as player strikes stay away, we get to keep doing this EVERY YEAR!!!

Greg,

Is there anyway you would consider making total points the winner of the League championships in the main event???? Maybe having a three week playoff out of the top two or three highest scoring teams in each league???? Or the top two scoring teams and the H2H winner play it out for the three weeks???

Im not saying we have no H2H, But lower the prize of H2H and make it so the league champ is based on total points.

something like-

1st in total points(League Champ)
2nd in total points (2nd Place)
3rd Best H2H Record

Or have the above three battle it out in a three week Playoff for the league championship.

H2H is the worst, And is clearly "Lucky". This is the only thing I hate about fantasy football.

So Greg, Any chance at all??????

p.s- I Think if you switched to Total points and lowered the H2H you could have more sign up's for your ultimate league as well as the Main.(your Favorite League)

Guys who put up $5,000 don't want to lose due to a lucky H2H player.

Just my Opinion

RI WORKHORSE · Post by **RI WORKHORSE** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:22 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:
There's another important element of luck in the NFFC: the weekly H2H matchups. Twice this year, I have lost games by less than one point -- just an awful "kick-to-the-nuts" feeling like no other. Though I have yet to be on the other side of those squeakers in 2007, we all know how GREAT it feels to win by a hair. In fact, winning those games is a big part of the fun factor of fantasy football.

It has been suggested by some that we should introduce an all-play or partial all-play system to the NFFC. While that would partially reduce the luck factor, I have serious doubts as to whether that would make the event better.

Perhaps it's that perfect mix of skill and luck that keeps us all coming back for more... King,

In my main league, We have the top H2H team get 3 lucky wins. One was due to a .4 win. The other was due to a guy Not playing a Def(When he had money to pick up one and Didn't) Then the guy also plays Tarvaris Jackson over Drew Brees. The 3rd was due to a guy running out of Free agent money and didn't pick up a kicker.

H2H Sucks!!!!!!

So this guy should be 6-6 But by other peoples mistakes he gets a shot at the league championship, H2H Prize money, And a 9-3 record.

[ November 28, 2007, 03:25 PM: Message edited by: RI WORKHORSE ]

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:22 am

Johnny, last year you scored an extra $2,500 based on your 12-1 record, even though FISHER scored more points. Now I don't know about you, but I can have a lot of fun with $2,500. Surely you didn't hate making $5,000 last year!

Total points leagues can get a little stale, to me anyways.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:28 am

There's no question luck plays a factor in fantasy football. As someone who has lost count of the number of times Kellen Winslow has been stopped at the 1-yard line this season, there's no question luck plays a factor.

But the bottom line in my opinion is that the best owners are the ones who put themselves in the best position to have good luck during the season. Now there are going to be some seasons where things just don't go your way. It happens. But I think the best owners are consistently able to do well or have some measure of success. They stand the test of time. Good luck or bad, they find a way to have a measure of success more often than not.

So while I don't ignore the impact luck has on this sport, I also believe that it ultimately boils down to the ability of the fantasy owner - be it analyzing the matchups and making the right lineup calls, making the right moves on the WW, making the right picks on Draft Day or making the right trade (if your league allows them). All of those are tools that the best players utilize to try and offset the luck factor and ultimately conquer it should bad luck be headed your way.

That's my 2 cents.

RI WORKHORSE · Post by **RI WORKHORSE** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:30 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:
Johnny, last year you scored an extra $2,500 based on your 12-1 record, even though FISHER scored more points. Now I don't know about you, but I can have a lot of fun with $2,500. Surely you didn't hate making $5,000 last year!

Total points leagues can get a little stale, to me anyways. King, I agree with you. But it made up for the year before when I was best H2H and best in points and didn't get paid for it.

Also my team was so injured, My team was better then Fisher's. I hit the wire and finished 2nd in points though.

Fisher Made up for it by getting a extra $12,000...

Again I do agree with you though. Also check my other post, Im not saying we get rid of H2H, Just pay out what it's worth. And Give the real champs there Championship's.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:30 am

One thing about H2H that always gets overlooked or swept under the rug is this...

EVERY SINGLE TEAM in your league has a crack at beating you at least once.

If they can't beat a certain team...he deserves to advance. A win is a win.

~Lance

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:33 am

Originally posted by RI WORKHORSE:
[QB] [QUOTE]
something like-

1st in total points(League Champ)
2nd in total points (2nd Place)
3rd Best H2H Record

Or have the above three battle it out in a three week Playoff for the league championship.

H2H is the worst, And is clearly "Lucky". This is the only thing I hate about fantasy football.

So Greg, Any chance at all??????
I know you don't like h2h Johnny, but I think it's a key element of the NFFC and fantasy football in general. This year, we have 22 of 26 leagues still battling for the h2h title. Almost every single league has multiple teams still in line for the h2h title heading into the 13th week of the season. Personally, I think our current league format is very good as we reward h2h and total points equally and actually give me credence to total points with the third place prize and the overall prizes being only total points.

I appreciate the suggestions, but I'm more than happy with our current league format.