Snake draft....the numbers

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 1:17 pm

Ico totally gets it.

The reason you don't see the result is that the random factors mask it. That doesn't mean it isn't there. You see it most strongly in DC where no moves are allowed and all the guys were very strong.

As I posted in the other thread, here is my DC league so far:

Current Place Draft Slot
11.................11
12.................10
13.................14
14.................12

We have 3 choices. We can ignore it, which is clearly the easiest solution and path of least resistance.

We can do the Gekko twist or...

We can modify the snake draft to something like:

1,14,14,14,1,14,1,14 which almost eliminates the bias. I suspect, however, that nobody will go for that, even though it levels the field.

Even 1,14,14,1,14,1,14 would be a nice improvement.

Okay, I've shown the numbers for consideration. I will now fall silent on the issue unless something new occurs to me.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 1:50 pm

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
We have 3 choices. We can ignore it, which is clearly the easiest solution and path of least resistance.

We can do the Gekko twist or...

We can modify the snake draft to something like:

1,14,14,14,1,14,1,14 which almost eliminates the bias. I suspect, however, that nobody will go for that, even though it levels the field.

Even 1,14,14,1,14,1,14 would be a nice improvement. Gekko twist gives everyone a fair and equal chance at drafting where they want. The only thing more fair is an auction format.

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
Okay, I've shown the numbers for consideration. I will now fall silent on the issue unless something new occurs to me. once you start throwing out VBD, etc... i think you lose a lot of people who don't understand it. trust me, at the end of the season, i will appoint a commission to investigate draft slot bias as well as the feasibility of blind bidding on draft slots. yourself, kj duke and dyv look like board members. i'll keep you posted.

Originally posted by JerseyPaul:
hey you're learning.

[ October 27, 2004, 08:04 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

lumpy463 · Post by **lumpy463** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 2:18 pm

Previously Posted:
The reason you don't see the result is that the random factors mask it. That doesn't mean it isn't there. You see it most strongly in DC where no moves are allowed and all the guys were very strong.

As I posted in the other thread, here is my DC league so far:

Current Place Draft Slot
11.................11
12.................10
13.................14
14.................12

What about the other LV Draft Champions League?
9..................1 and took Randy Moss first
10.................4
11.................3
12.................12
13.................13
14.................10
Are #9,10, and 11 geniuses or just damn lucky?

Derek "Lumpy" Anderson

lichtman · Post by **lichtman** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:30 pm

If changes were made in the serpentine order every owner would still have the ability to exploit other people's poor drafting and gain advantage by their own good drafting -- that will never change no matter how you draft.

The key is that an owner won't HAVE to capitalize on other people's mistakes just to even the playing field.

Draft slot bidding just changes the way you get to a flawed draft order -- it does not change those flaws.

I think the reason Gekko suggested the slot bidding is because he saw the process was flawed.

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:38 pm

Originally posted by I Cojones:
If changes were made in the serpentine order every owner would still have the ability to exploit other people's poor drafting and gain advantage by their own good drafting -- that will never change no matter how you draft.

The key is that an owner won't HAVE to capitalize on other people's mistakes just to even the playing field.

Draft slot bidding just changes the way you get to a flawed draft order -- it does not change those flaws.

I think the reason Gekko suggested the slot bidding is because he saw the process was flawed. To me, nothing flawed about slot bidding, everyone has it within their control to get the pick they want.

Changing the normal serpentine would be MUCH more controversial than either the standard draft or slot bidding because you have to buy into the truth of the numbers you use above. Not an easy sell, I don't see it as even remotely feasible for this contest.

[ October 27, 2004, 09:39 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

lichtman · Post by **lichtman** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:47 pm

I honestly think it would be a lot easier to explain a modified serpentine to a random shmoe on the street than it is to explain draft slot bidding -- and there is absolutely nothing mutually exclusive about the two.

I guess a good poll question would be -- given random draft order selection, would you be happier with picks 10-14 in a standard serpentine or a 1/14/14/1/14/1? And coversely, if you had picks 1-4 which would you be happier with?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:48 pm

Originally posted by I Cojones:
Draft slot bidding just changes the way you get to a flawed draft order -- it does not change those flaws.

I think the reason Gekko suggested the slot bidding is because he saw the process was flawed. I suggested it to remove the randomness of assigning draft slots. Owners will make bad picks, sleepers will get picked too early, players will get injured, etc... Slot bidding does NOTHING to change these things. If the light bulb hasn't gone on for you yet, it probably never will. That's okay. The world needs people like you.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:51 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
To me, nothing flawed about slot bidding, everyone has it within their control to get the pick they want.

Changing the normal serpentine would be MUCH more controversial than either the standard draft or slot bidding because you have to buy into the truth of the numbers you use above. Not an easy sell, I don't see it as even remotely feasible for this contest. Duke - you are correct on all counts. well done!

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:56 pm

Originally posted by I Cojones:
I honestly think it would be a lot easier to explain a modified serpentine to a random shmoe on the street than it is to explain draft slot bidding -- and there is absolutely nothing mutually exclusive about the two.

I guess a good poll question would be -- given random draft order selection, would you be happier with picks 10-14 in a standard serpentine or a 1/14/14/1/14/1? And coversely, if you had picks 1-4 which would you be happier with? Yeah a modified draft order is easier to explain. Slot bidding requires 5 minutes of thought, but that thought would rationally lead one to see it is as fair, even if you don't care for it, it is hard to argue that it isn't fair.

Changing the draft order, I think, would create a controversy of fairness, a much bigger problem than having to think about something for a few minutes.

I would view this modified serpentine as unfair to those near the top; if I was assigned one of those slots I would be very unhappy.

Now, if slot bidding was combined with a modified serpentine I could live with that because it puts everyone back on equal ground. But if you think slot bidding is a tough sell (which I don't, btw), slot bidding plus a modified draft order would be an even tougher sell.

[ October 27, 2004, 10:00 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

lichtman · Post by **lichtman** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 4:00 pm

KJ -- I could see being unhappy if the serpentine was changed after you got a top pick, but if you knew going into it that it was a midified serpentine, what would make you unhappy?