The Present State of the Economy and it's Impact on High Stakes FF

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:41 am

Originally posted by Bluenose:
I don't think it'ssss a contradiction, Ssssnake.

Warren Buffett can afford it. How much FF knowledge there, that'ssss an open question.

UFF C-Sheets: what makes you come to that conclusion? I'm not trying to be an ass, but, as I said, I can reason for both sides. What informs your opinion in the debate? Thanks. So you just want to argue, today I see.

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 9:47 am

Originally posted by SNAKE:
quote:Originally posted by Bluenose:
Which brings up an interesting question, Boutros:

At the higher end, ($1300, $2500, $5000 etc.), overall, will the money be more sharp this year (casual players dropping out, deciding it isn't worth it), or more square this year (good players squeezed out, people left have more $$ but less knowledge)?

I can take either side of the argument, so I obviously have no clue. Opinions? ...this is a contradiction of terms here...obviously the knowledgable FF folks are the ones with the loot due to their FF knowledge, eh?...SNAKE [/QUOTE]----------------------------------------------

You're mostly wrong here Snake. Most players don't make money at High Stakes Fantasy Football...even if they think they are a shark/sharp. It's a fun hobby that for most players is a hobby that costs them money but rewards them with 3 or 4 months of entertainment Value for their money. I'm comfortable saying less (Much less) than 20% of Fantasy Footballers turn a profit over time. Therefore if economy is tighter some of these "sharks" who really don't turn economic profits from this fun hobby may have to reevaluate at what cost they are able to afford to be entertained for 3-4 months. WHILE the truly rich can afford this no matter their skill level even if they are completely dead money entering.

[ July 12, 2008, 03:48 PM: Message edited by: Lightning Fast Whip ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 9:42 am

I will state that the economy will play a role in any product that costs money this year. That's just a fact. Everybody is feeling the squeeze of gas prices, of a slowdown economy, of lost money in the stock market and inflation. It's a tough time all the way around.

Heck, we just had our annual Old Car Show here in Iola and I don't have the final numbers but it sure looked like attendance was down. Folks drive here from all over the country and with gas prices what they are there's no question it hurt attendance. I went to Milwaukee last week on vacation and you could see that crowds were down at the Zoo, at the hotel, at the museum, everywhere except Brewers' games. It's tough.

That being said, people who play fantasy football do so to enjoy something outside of the troubles of daily life. For a brief time, they can envision being an NFL GM, coach and owner. And folks who play high-stakes contests usually have the discretionary income to continue playing. Now there's no doubt that the economy will hurt some teams from forming again or some folks from deciding to pay the travel costs involved, but that could happen even in a good economy.

All I know is that our baseball event set record numbers this year and I like the return rate of last year's NFFC members to our events this year. So there are a lot of factors that could hurt FF contests this year, but in the end folks still love this hobby, still love their NFL, still need diversions from all the bad around us and if you offer good customer service and a good product hopefully they will choose your game over the competition. That's the premise I'm working under this year and we'll see what the final numbers bring out.

Let the hobby continue, even in bad times.

Mike Costaglio · Post by **Mike Costaglio** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:07 am

I have seen similar posts about high stakes FF and the 2008 economy. Some High Stakes hosts want to minimize and or rationalize that FF will survive regardless of the economy. I agree that FF will survive but not all events will make it and maybe not at full enrollment. This economic downturn is different. This slow down is deep and includes many economic areas (not just real estate or gas, or employment, or rising prices, or limited credit) and confidence indicates that we have another year before we turn around. Every player has lost net worth (more if they own real estate). Bottom line, FF players are hit by this downturn and will need to adjust discretionary priorities (more if married). I think that there is a real danger that some main events will not fill (especially the events that need large numbers). Lets face it the dollars spent on FF are earmarked as entertainment monies they will get cut from the budget before school supplies and soccer shoes. Given that we may agree your FF budget should first be spent on the event you want to see again in 2009 and the event you trust can sustain tough times.

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:13 am

I would term fantasy sports as recession-resistant.

Beer consumption has gone up in the past during tough times as people need to divert themselves from tough times. I think FF has an element of that, but will suffer a little from players reducing the number of teams they manage, and will lose some players who trade down to lower stakes games because budgets no longer allow for higher entries.

That said, FF is still in a secular growth phase thanks to growing media attention and internet usage. Overall, I think flat to moderate growth for this season is a reasonable assumption. It's definitely a better business to be in than many consumer product companies right now.

[ July 13, 2008, 04:15 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:22 am

Originally posted by Mike Costaglio:
I have seen similar posts about high stakes FF and the 2008 economy. Some High Stakes hosts want to minimize and or rationalize that FF will survive regardless of the economy. I agree that FF will survive but not all events will make it and maybe not at full enrollment. This economic downturn is different. This slow down is deep and includes many economic areas (not just real estate or gas, or employment, or rising prices, or limited credit) and confidence indicates that we have another year before we turn around. Every player has lost net worth (more if they own real estate). Bottom line, FF players are hit by this downturn and will need to adjust discretionary priorities (more if married). I think that there is a real danger that some main events will not fill (especially the events that need large numbers). Lets face it the dollars spent on FF are earmarked as entertainment monies they will get cut from the budget before school supplies and soccer shoes. Given that we may agree your FF budget should first be spent on the event you want to see again in 2009 and the event you trust can sustain tough times. There's no question that FF contests aren't recession proof. It's discretionary income that not everyone has right now. I think it's an extremely tough time for the market to absorb so many new contests at such high price levels. I agee that not all will survive, or if they do they will be doing so with deep pockets and an eye towards the future. But how many can sustain a loss, even if it's a small one? We'll see.

I saw a stat recently that showed Americans are spending $32 billion more a month or something like that on the same amount of gas they bought two years ago. That's money out of the economy that would have been spent on so many other things. Unfortunately, I don't think $1 gas is coming back anytime soon.

I'm on a monthly charge for my propane gas to heat my house so that I don't get socked when they fill my tank. I just got my statement yesterday for 2009 and my monthly bill went up FIFTY PERCENT. The dollar increase was the amount I paid each month for gas about eight years ago. It's insane. I won't get a cost of living raise big enough to cover that gas bill. It's crazy, man, just crazy.

Mike Costaglio · Post by **Mike Costaglio** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:23 am

Duke, expensive beer, at least with a good brew you can count on the result.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:24 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
I would term fantasy sports as recession-resistant.

Beer consumption has gone up in the past during tough times as people need to divert themselves from tough times. I think FF has an element of that, but will suffer a little from players reducing the number of teams they manage, and will lose some players who trade down to lower stakes games because budgets no longer allow for higher entries.

That said, FF is still in a secular growth phase thanks to growing media attention and internet usage. Overall, I think flat to moderate growth for this season is a reasonable assumption. It's definitely a better business to be in than many consumer product companies right now. Well, they did just fill about 7,000 seats in the World Series of Poker, right? And Las Vegas is still doing well, right? Somehow, Americans find a way to have fun and with any luck we'll see the same thing when it comes to them choosing their fantasy football contests this year. It's hard to turn off the NFL, that I know!!

Mike Costaglio · Post by **Mike Costaglio** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:27 am

Greg, let's hope that the contests that can not make it are honest enough to pull the plug early so that guys have a chance to get into a main event that will make it.

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:41 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
I would term fantasy sports as recession-resistant.

Beer consumption has gone up in the past during tough times as people need to divert themselves from tough times. I think FF has an element of that, but will suffer a little from players reducing the number of teams they manage, and will lose some players who trade down to lower stakes games because budgets no longer allow for higher entries.

That said, FF is still in a secular growth phase thanks to growing media attention and internet usage. Overall, I think flat to moderate growth for this season is a reasonable assumption. It's definitely a better business to be in than many consumer product companies right now. And Las Vegas is still doing well, right? [/QUOTE]Vegas is sucking wind right, worse than they have in many years including the last few recessions which were hardly a blip in the growth curve for them. Most casino stocks are down at least 50% for the year as the theory that they were recession-proof has blown up in investors faces who didn't think about how Vegas has changed since the last down cycle.

The casino companies have themselves to blame. Vegas used to be a bargain vacation, but when it now costs $40 for a burger and fries from room service at a mid-tier major hotel ... its become a premium vacation in every conceivable manner. Vegas could stay down for awhile.

[ July 13, 2008, 04:46 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]