ONE of these backup RB's could be the difference

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:26 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
I don't think he's this year's DeAngelo, but I think people are really sleeping on Willie Parker. He's in a contract year and when healthy he's a talented RB on a great team. Mendenhall and Moore (3rd down) lower his value but right now you can get him as a RB3 and that's terrific value given how the Steelers want to run the ball and given how Parker has proven he can perform at a high level when healthy. I kind of agree with Tom here, but the injury history and the fact that he is totally non-existent in the passing game is the reason he's not in the Top 25 among RBs. But who remembers his start last year before he suffered a knee injury?
Week 1: 138 yards rushing, 3 TDs
Week 2: 105 yards rushing

I still find it hard to believe that he had only three receptions for 13 yards last year. C'mon, he caught 31 passes in 2006 for 222 yards and had three TD receptions. There's no reason that he can't at least do that again.

There's upside here, but there's also a one-dimensional, injury-prone back here, too.

[/QUOTE]THE PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THAT MOORE WASN'T ON THE TEAM. MOORE IS A MUCH MORE PROLIFIC RECEIVER THAT PARKER AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE. NOT SAYING HE WILL ONLY CATCH SIX BALL LIKE TURNER BUT HIS RECEIVE UPSIDE IS DEFINITELY LIMITED.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:26 am

Originally posted by GK:
...SNAKE thinks that Leon Washington and his talents are being overlooked and undervalued as of right now...TJ is in a contract year and he'll be playing for possibly that last big payday (even if it's a one year contract from some team) so IF he remains a Jet Washington's potential obviously suffers...but you also have to look at the history of the new coaching staff and how they previously used RB's of Leon's stature as well...even if TJ sticks around SNAKE believes that Washington will indeed get MUCHO more touches than in previous years and ISHO likes him to produce in a bigger way than expected by most out there in Fantasy Land when called upon to do so (the kat can flat out play as he's a dynamic playmaker who simply needs to be on the field as much as possible)...as for Shonn Greene, well ISHO he is still a year away and won't be much of a factor if TJ stays and if not Greene will be the power back with Washington (surprise!) being on the gridiron more and getting the lion's share of the carries indeed...SNAKE This situation is very similar to the one in Baltimore IMO.

McGahee = T.Jones (old dudes possibly hanging on)

Rice = Washington (best assets are catching the ball, and neither is a consistent 20+ carry RB)

McLain = Shonn Greene (both bruising guys who COULD carry the load, will probably get the goalline, but will never fulfill their full value due to the fact there are other capable RB's around).

Is it me, or are there MORE and MORE "Shanahan backfields" popping up in the NFL. 3 headed monsters that are VERY difficult to predict.

Not sure I am willing to take a 4th-6th rounder to find out who is going to be "the man" on these (and other possible 3 headed monsters...NE, BUFF, PITT, SEA, DEN, OAK, etc.) respective teams.

I agree the new coaching staff is the key. However, last I heard they drafted Greene, and were giddy about his potential!

[ July 20, 2009, 04:27 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

DOOMSDAY · Post by **DOOMSDAY** » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:33 am

Grant is also unlike Parker in that he just isn't very good himself.

I see nothing special in Grant and do not really think he is any better than his backup, Jackson. Basically a 2-down back, but GB seems committed to funnel the ball through him so his stats should still be there at the end of the day. Any chance of Wynn being a goal line specialist here?

I agree with RiFF's view on this topic, that the incumbents and not the reserves could be the big value hits here.

FWP, Addai, and LJ appear to be poised to make the biggest impacts.

How would any of you feel having the above grouping as your 3 RB's? Even switching Addai with Grant if you wish? Or even Stewart with FWP? I think I could be quite happy with that lineup.

If your pick at the 10 spot, and take the 2 best WR's with first two picks.

Current ADP's could leave you with the following:
10 - Fitz, AJ, or Moss
19 - Wayne, Smith, White, Boldin, or Jennings
33 - Grant or Addai
52 - LJ
61 - Stewart or FWP
79 - QB-Ryan, Palmer, Ben, or Cassell

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:34 am

I think the increase in RBBC situations has lowered the number of truly great RBs, but increased the number of viable flex options. That's especially true in PPR leagues given how many of the committee RBs (such as Washington, Charles, Norwood and Faulk to name four) are third-down RBs. So the days of having two great RBs may be over if you shy away from going RB-RB but you can have one great one, one solid one and a number of viable flex options you can use as matchup plays. Or sometimes, like Kevin Faulk last year, those guys turn into productive RB2s for a good stretch of the season. In one of my Expert leagues last year, Faulk was a big reason why I got to the title game. I got hit hard by injuries, grabbed him off the WW and he was golden in the PPR format.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:35 am

I think Grant's a solid RB. Not a star, but a solid guy you can win with. I've seen nothing from Jackson that leads me to think he's anywhere near Grant in terms of talent.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:37 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
The beauty, though, is his value is in the toilet right now so you don't have to chase him as a RB2. You can get him as a RB3 and get someone who's going to produce when healthy. The lack of receptions is a concern (that makes Mewelde Moore a great End Game pick and his value is non-existent right now), but the Steelers will run it a lot and if Parker can stay healthy, he'll be productive.

I thought Parker was over-valued last year and that proved to be the case. I think he's flying under the radar so far this year. His ADP is 66, which means you have to grab him in the fifth round. That's not toilet time. If you start out with 2 RBs and 2 WRs, then you can grab him as your RB3 but I think in the fifth round some folks are grabbing him as their RB2 and needing him to succeed to make this pick worthwhile.

The 66th overall pick is still pretty high. I agree, he has upside, but the risk is at least as great as the reward.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:42 am

Hmmm, 66 is higher than I thought. Let's see where he went in our three magazine league drafts:

Classic: 77th (6th round)
Primetime: 82nd (7th round)
KP Experts: 61st (5th round)

77th and 82nd is more in line with where I expect him to go in many drafts this year. I like him there as a value pick.

DOOMSDAY · Post by **DOOMSDAY** » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:43 am

Tom, do you think there is a role for Wynn in the GB backfield at all or simply there for depth purposes?

I somehow forgot to mention my feelings on Snake's initial search for this year's DeAngelo Williams, if there even is one considering he put up over 1500 yds and 20 total TD's.

When looking for this year's DeAngelo I think you can stop looking before you get started right there with the Panthers backfield. I think Stewart is your answer. Here is what I emailed Greg when he was looking for sleeper values...

RB - Jonathan Stewart, CAR
This power rusher will likely be going off the board in the fifth round of most 14-team drafts this season, but could very well prove to be second round and maybe even first round talent. The #13 pick out of Oregon, Stewart enters his second season on a heavily run oriented team with an elite offensive line. Yes, he will once again be sharing time with last season's phenom DeAngelo Williams, but I envision this time share to be much closer to 50-50 than it was last year. He averaged an impressive 4.5 ypc on 184 carries last year hitting pay dirt 10 times all while nursing a nagging toe injury and playing second fiddle to Williams. He should see 225 carries for 1,250 yards and as the go-to goal line back HE could see 15 TD's, not DeAngelo! A strong RB2 who has the talent to be top-5 material come season's end.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:44 am

I think Wynn is a depth guy. Grant is the primary RB and Jackson the third-down guy. If Wynn sticks, he could get a couple of carries here and there but I don't see him being a factor.

I also like Stewart. He's a good RB and the Panthers are going to run, run and run some more.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Mon Jul 20, 2009 10:44 am

As far as Grant and Jackson (Ulysses S and Stonewall???) ....

Hasn't Brandon Jackson had a lot of issues with fumbling in his career in GB?

I'm sure Greg and/or Tom can verify this. All I know is that if you can't hang onto the ball, you won't stay on the field.