FF 2010: TRULY WILD & WACKY!!!

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:58 pm

From someone who plays numerous leagues & formats in both Fantasy Football & Baseball and had some minor successes (and failures) in both, there is no comparison. Luck plays a far greater role here than in baseball.

Just the fact that you have only 8 starters in football (leaving K & D out) and 23 in baseball, an injury to one of your starters affects 12.5% (or 10% if you insist on including K & D) of your team here while only 4% of your team in baseball. The fact that injuries are a much more common occurance in football enhances that dynamic.

Throw in the Head to Head factor during the regular season and the lottery aspect of the Championship rounds and the luck factor is multiplied significantly.

That said, the fact that the same players seem to excel year after year in this sport proves that the luck factor can be minimized to a degree and that the cream does eventually rise.

This season though will definately put that to a greater test. Whether accurate or not, it sure feels like there's a half dozen premier players knocked out of action each week.

Glenn

BLACKHAND · Post by **BLACKHAND** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 5:08 pm

i think you can make a case for both sides. luck and skill. you look at some high stakes leagues and you still see koq , jules , billy , snake , wayne so the skill factor is there injury or not. are some of these players going to have an off year...certainly. does it take away from what they have done..hell no. when your playing poker i say ' why fight the tigers when you have the lambs ' but in fantasy football i want to play against the best. and try to bust there azz.

Old School · Post by **Old School** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 5:31 pm

I have never played fantasy baseball but I do agree that there is far less luck in that vs football. But I just can't imagine sitting down and having to watch a single ballgame. I watched the first pitch of the world series last night and then flipped channels - BORING!

Must not be a SF Giants fan, huh Wayne?

GO GIANTS!!!!! Never thought baseball would be more
important to me than football this time of year

Chi_Town_FEW · Post by **Chi_Town_FEW** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:58 pm

Great post GK. My opinion on football is it is cyclical. Where RBs dominated success in the fantasy landscape in the first half of the decade to WRs dominating in a PPR format in the later. Systems are always changing in the NFL as the off. goes from run to pass because the def. is built to stop the run and vice versa. The changing NFL rules plays a part also. The average playing time of a player also factors in. It is really a 3 to 4 year window. QB excluded to some degree. Nobody stays on top for 3 years anymore besides a QB. Injuries to skill players are more frequent. Not much. But I feel that is because everyone is always getting bigger, stronger, faster. Every year. The other factor is head coaching changes. Nobody runs the same system 5 years in a row anymore. All this makes for less predictabillity of who the fantasy studs will be. At the end of the year I think the winners will have RBs who play on winning teams, WRs who see the most targets, QBs fighting for the last playoff spot, and yes, of course, whose team can avoid the injuries where they dont have depth. My Primetime partner said it best when he said you cant get this years Ray Rice by taking Ray Rice 3rd. Meaning rounds 4-10 are where the championship is won. Ray Rice in the 3rd last year, Foster this year. Andre Johnson in the 3rd 2 years ago, Nicks this year. Being the guy who tries to stay ahead of the curve is why we all love this. Injuries suck, but the saying "I'd rather be lucky than good" can win you a lot of money in fantasy football this year.

[ October 29, 2010, 02:14 AM: Message edited by: Chi_Town_FEW ]

GriffithVT · Post by **GriffithVT** » Fri Oct 29, 2010 2:01 am

Good topic Glenn,

It is hard to tell. Injuries always have an effect in fantasy football to some degree. That will never change sadly. That being said I still see many top players hanging around in contention. Everyone has a bad year in this game. Last season was my worst in Fantasy Football. I was terrible in every league I played in. I was a complete embarrassment in the Classic. I think I looked at ADP and conventional wisdom too much. Trying to get back to a more common sense approach. I am certainly no top player (I have played since NFFC inception, won my league one year, have a couple of 3rds and a 4th) but the common sense approach seems to be working ok so far. You seem to be doing pretty well in the Classic this year and youve had strong success in the past so it seems to me like many good players like you adapt to the injuries and man the waiver wire. In the Classic Top 10 right now you have DYV, Cocktails and Dreams and KJ Duke just to begin with. That looks to me like a pretty large assortment of "top players" in the top spots. Hey I'm no top player like you Glenn but just my two cents.

See you Sunday,
Mark
Cobra Kai

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Fri Oct 29, 2010 7:16 am

I think we might need to look beyond just a few top players being at the very tip top of the standings. Yes, the top 10 might have 3-5 top players in it. I'd be curious tho how many top players aren't even in the top 20%??? I suspect that there could be numerous top players missing there because I suspect that a lot of new names (perhaps ALSO top players, maybe as yet just unknown?) have replaced them, perhaps largely in part due to having teams full of Lloyds, Collies, Hillises, Ortons, etc. Yes, Wayne is still doing well in the overall Primetime; but he's just one of many top players. If we knew how to accurately determine "top players" this would be an easy review if the overall standings.

[ October 29, 2010, 01:21 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

GriffithVT · Post by **GriffithVT** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 2:42 am

Good Luck to you also Glenn. Thanks for your kind words, I'm trying. Should be interesting an interesting match-up. I just can't but feel lukewarm about Fitzpatrick as my QB.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:29 am

Ok, so I played around a bit this morning, but only with the Top 20 Classic Points Leaders Through 7 Weeks, just to see if there's any common trend as to how many "breakout" players each team has on it.

I don't really feel like spending the time to go deeper (i.e. top 50), but I do think there's a common trend here and that my original theory doesn't seem too far off. Lots of teams w/ these breakout players have done well so far. Of course, Collie's hurt now, and even w/ many of the others, we don't know that they'll continue on their hot pace (let's hope not!

).