.......... Enough is Enough ....... with the First Round Pick...!
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D-Day Heroes
- Posts: 875
- Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 6:00 pm
.......... Enough is Enough ....... with the First Round Pick...!
________ YO - Snake _____ Just playing with ya, don't get all " Rattled "...! LOl
" When you are in any contest you should work as if there were - to the very last minute - a chance to lose it. "
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
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D-Day Heroes
- Posts: 875
- Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 6:00 pm
.......... Enough is Enough ....... with the First Round Pick...!
______ What ...do you live on this site....I just posted that a minute ago...?
" When you are in any contest you should work as if there were - to the very last minute - a chance to lose it. "
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
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ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
.......... Enough is Enough ....... with the First Round Pick...!
Here's my thoughts as I run 14-team leagues for the 22nd year.
And you are starting to see it here with the NFFC.
Very good owners will win from any position consistently.
Bad owners will lose from any position consistently.
Where you pick doesn't really matter.
I've NEVER seen a bad owner win the league because he had the 1-2-3 pick.
I've seen hundreds of times where a good owner won the league with a double digit pick.
At the END of the year, injuries will dictate which pick was best last Saturday. Today, it looks like 1-2-3, Monday, it could and has been completely different.
At the end of the day, what matters most is making the most correct and value picks from wherever you drafted.
There is more of an advantage sitting next to some loser that has no clue than what pick you started from. Put a loser on both sides of me and it's all over.
And you are starting to see it here with the NFFC.
Very good owners will win from any position consistently.
Bad owners will lose from any position consistently.
Where you pick doesn't really matter.
I've NEVER seen a bad owner win the league because he had the 1-2-3 pick.
I've seen hundreds of times where a good owner won the league with a double digit pick.
At the END of the year, injuries will dictate which pick was best last Saturday. Today, it looks like 1-2-3, Monday, it could and has been completely different.
At the end of the day, what matters most is making the most correct and value picks from wherever you drafted.
There is more of an advantage sitting next to some loser that has no clue than what pick you started from. Put a loser on both sides of me and it's all over.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
.......... Enough is Enough ....... with the First Round Pick...!
Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by D-Day Heroes:
......... . I wish someone would do a POLL... and show how many times the guy with the number one pick.... WON THE LEAGUE. I'd Be willing to bet it is less than 20 %.In 14 team leagues if all draft postions won leagues an equal number of times, each draft position would win 7.14% of the time. So saying draft position 1 wins less than 20% of the time, which is almost 3 times the average, isn't exactly going out on a limb. And of course, any league can be won from any position. But, I believe this year draft positions 1, 2 and 3 will win their leagues much more than the statistical average would suggest (21.4%). The participants in those draft positions must still have a respectable draft throughout the entire 18 rounds and enjoy an average amount of "luck" regarding injuries, matchups, etc throughout the season. So, obviously the skill of each player is a big factor along with a little luck. But, if this year these 3 positions win their leagues 1 out of 3 times (because of the players available early in the draft from those positions), which would be 33% instead of the expected 21.4%, that's a HUGE statistical advantage over the other draft positions. Again, I agree that any league can be won from any draft position, but I also believe its tough to argue that the 1st 3 positions this year didn't start with an advantage.
In a 100 meter sprint, with 14 world class sprinters, if you gave a couple of those sprinters a 5 meter "head start" that would be a huge advantage. If the race was made up of both world class sprinters and High School sprinters, giving the High School sprinters a 5 meter advantage probably wouldn't alter the outcome of the race. And I believe in this analogy, the 1st 3 draft positions had the 5 meter head start; which can certainly be overcome. But if the people drafting out of those positions are "world class sprinters" and they don't pull a hamstring or trip and fall over those remaining 95 meters, overcoming that advantage will be a challenge. And for all of us without one of the 1st 3 slots, lets hope for a lot of pulled hamstrings!! (except for Steve Smith, who I drafted...oh well) [/QUOTE]Well said Riff. In a game of very closely matched participants, a small advantage can become a very significant advantage. Which is why we need blind bidding for slots next year! (uh, oh, I didnt bring up that topic again, did I?)
quote:Originally posted by D-Day Heroes:
......... . I wish someone would do a POLL... and show how many times the guy with the number one pick.... WON THE LEAGUE. I'd Be willing to bet it is less than 20 %.In 14 team leagues if all draft postions won leagues an equal number of times, each draft position would win 7.14% of the time. So saying draft position 1 wins less than 20% of the time, which is almost 3 times the average, isn't exactly going out on a limb. And of course, any league can be won from any position. But, I believe this year draft positions 1, 2 and 3 will win their leagues much more than the statistical average would suggest (21.4%). The participants in those draft positions must still have a respectable draft throughout the entire 18 rounds and enjoy an average amount of "luck" regarding injuries, matchups, etc throughout the season. So, obviously the skill of each player is a big factor along with a little luck. But, if this year these 3 positions win their leagues 1 out of 3 times (because of the players available early in the draft from those positions), which would be 33% instead of the expected 21.4%, that's a HUGE statistical advantage over the other draft positions. Again, I agree that any league can be won from any draft position, but I also believe its tough to argue that the 1st 3 positions this year didn't start with an advantage.
In a 100 meter sprint, with 14 world class sprinters, if you gave a couple of those sprinters a 5 meter "head start" that would be a huge advantage. If the race was made up of both world class sprinters and High School sprinters, giving the High School sprinters a 5 meter advantage probably wouldn't alter the outcome of the race. And I believe in this analogy, the 1st 3 draft positions had the 5 meter head start; which can certainly be overcome. But if the people drafting out of those positions are "world class sprinters" and they don't pull a hamstring or trip and fall over those remaining 95 meters, overcoming that advantage will be a challenge. And for all of us without one of the 1st 3 slots, lets hope for a lot of pulled hamstrings!! (except for Steve Smith, who I drafted...oh well) [/QUOTE]Well said Riff. In a game of very closely matched participants, a small advantage can become a very significant advantage. Which is why we need blind bidding for slots next year! (uh, oh, I didnt bring up that topic again, did I?)
.......... Enough is Enough ....... with the First Round Pick...!
Originally posted by UFS:
Here's my thoughts as I run 14-team leagues for the 22nd year.
And you are starting to see it here with the NFFC.
Very good owners will win from any position consistently.
Bad owners will lose from any position consistently. Is 2-3 years of NFFC data really that significant?
Where you pick doesn't really matter. It matters tremendously, you just don't know if your spot was good or bad until after the draft (to a smaller extent) and after the season (to a larger extent).
I've NEVER seen a bad owner win the league because he had the 1-2-3 pick. I have, and it didnt take 14 years
I've seen hundreds of times where a good owner won the league with a double digit pick. Of course, one key injury can drop first to worst in this league.
At the END of the year, injuries will dictate which pick was best last Saturday. Today, it looks like 1-2-3, Monday, it could and has been completely different. Absolutely correct on this one.
At the end of the day, what matters most is making the most correct and value picks from wherever you drafted.
There is more of an advantage sitting next to some loser that has no clue than what pick you started from. Put a loser on both sides of me and it's all over. Agreed on the advantage of sitting next to 2 losers, but John if you're between two losers wouldn't that give the next guy down from you three an overwhelming world-beating advantage?
Here's my thoughts as I run 14-team leagues for the 22nd year.
And you are starting to see it here with the NFFC.
Very good owners will win from any position consistently.
Bad owners will lose from any position consistently. Is 2-3 years of NFFC data really that significant?
Where you pick doesn't really matter. It matters tremendously, you just don't know if your spot was good or bad until after the draft (to a smaller extent) and after the season (to a larger extent).
I've NEVER seen a bad owner win the league because he had the 1-2-3 pick. I have, and it didnt take 14 years
I've seen hundreds of times where a good owner won the league with a double digit pick. Of course, one key injury can drop first to worst in this league.
At the END of the year, injuries will dictate which pick was best last Saturday. Today, it looks like 1-2-3, Monday, it could and has been completely different. Absolutely correct on this one.
At the end of the day, what matters most is making the most correct and value picks from wherever you drafted.
There is more of an advantage sitting next to some loser that has no clue than what pick you started from. Put a loser on both sides of me and it's all over. Agreed on the advantage of sitting next to 2 losers, but John if you're between two losers wouldn't that give the next guy down from you three an overwhelming world-beating advantage?
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D-Day Heroes
- Posts: 875
- Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 6:00 pm
.......... Enough is Enough ....... with the First Round Pick...!
UFS____________ I Agree with that statement ___ Totally. Which is why.... after you finish drafting on " MDC " they ask you to grade your opponents, ____ BALANCE____DEPTH____and OVERALL____ Not, how good was his draft position..?
" When you are in any contest you should work as if there were - to the very last minute - a chance to lose it. "
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
-
ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
.......... Enough is Enough ....... with the First Round Pick...!
KJ,
Never said NFFC had enough data. All I said that I'm starting to see the same things I've seen for 22 years.
I doubt the bad player was in a 14-team league that won, and if he did, it was probably in a local league with 5-7 idiots, not the caliber that Greg or I have.
Don't understand last comment, but it would give a few others an advantage too. That's only logical.
It really doesn't matter and your reply proved it. You won't know until the end of the season which pick was best, MAINLY due to all the injuries, but there are many other factors too.
If you think you've lost going in with the 13th pick, then you already did.
I know it will never happen, but the true champion , the BEST player, should walk into the room w/o knowing his pick. That would be by far the greatest test of skill.
Never said NFFC had enough data. All I said that I'm starting to see the same things I've seen for 22 years.
I doubt the bad player was in a 14-team league that won, and if he did, it was probably in a local league with 5-7 idiots, not the caliber that Greg or I have.
Don't understand last comment, but it would give a few others an advantage too. That's only logical.
It really doesn't matter and your reply proved it. You won't know until the end of the season which pick was best, MAINLY due to all the injuries, but there are many other factors too.
If you think you've lost going in with the 13th pick, then you already did.
I know it will never happen, but the true champion , the BEST player, should walk into the room w/o knowing his pick. That would be by far the greatest test of skill.
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
.......... Enough is Enough ....... with the First Round Pick...!
SNAKE.... we don't compete against each other this year,but the early season chirping keeps on coming.... On paper 1-2-3- looks like a lock,and if it was a casino we'd all be done by the 1st snap 2nite...When was the last time a casino went belly-up? Let the games begin......""GO DANTE AND RONNIE BROWN."