And then we have fantasy football

[thelunger]

all i know is the more prepared i am the luckier i get...............

[Sandman62]

To give you an example, in my classic league, I was not prepared as well as I should have been. I knew that there were several owners in the league that were WR drafters. I knew there would be 2 or 3 teams that would draft 3 or 4 WRs at the beginning of the draft, and I should have prepared, by taking advantage of this, but I didn't and left myself short at RB, by following the trend, instead of making my own. The opposite occurred in the Primetime, as I planned on what I wanted to do, the players I wanted, and this was only because I learned my lesson in the Classic and made the appropriate adjustments. I ended up with nearly the exact team I wanted to draft, and I am doing well in the Primetime, not in the Classic. This isn't just coincidence or luck, it is preparation, which, to me, is the one huge part of fantasy football that we can control.

I'm not following this.

In the Classic, you went WR, WR, RB, TE, WR, RB, TE, QB, QB, RB. Andre, Calvin and Gates have underperformed. As for RBs, though it's hindsight, you could've taken Spiller when you took Benson.

In the Primetime, you went even heavier on early WRs, with WR, WR, WR, WR, QB, RB, RB, RB, RB, TE, TE. Two of those WRs though were Julio and Green. But you also drafted the #1 DST (CHI), as well as added Heath Miller off waivers, which have certainly helped, but obviously had nothing to do with a "draft adjustment strategy".

I'm not seeing how the much heavier early WR strategy was an "adjustment" so that you wouldn't miss out on RBs again??? To me, it just looks like you picked better WRs in the Primetime than the Classic. Switch those, and your Classic's probably doing better.

[JETS SB]

To give you an example, in my classic league, I was not prepared as well as I should have been. I knew that there were several owners in the league that were WR drafters. I knew there would be 2 or 3 teams that would draft 3 or 4 WRs at the beginning of the draft, and I should have prepared, by taking advantage of this, but I didn't and left myself short at RB, by following the trend, instead of making my own. The opposite occurred in the Primetime, as I planned on what I wanted to do, the players I wanted, and this was only because I learned my lesson in the Classic and made the appropriate adjustments. I ended up with nearly the exact team I wanted to draft, and I am doing well in the Primetime, not in the Classic. This isn't just coincidence or luck, it is preparation, which, to me, is the one huge part of fantasy football that we can control.

I'm not following this.

In the Classic, you went WR, WR, RB, TE, WR, RB, TE, QB, QB, RB. Andre, Calvin and Gates have underperformed. As for RBs, though it's hindsight, you could've taken Spiller when you took Benson.

In the Primetime, you went even heavier on early WRs, with WR, WR, WR, WR, QB, RB, RB, RB, RB, TE, TE. Two of those WRs though were Julio and Green. But you also drafted the #1 DST (CHI), as well as added Heath Miller off waivers, which have certainly helped, but obviously had nothing to do with a "draft adjustment strategy".

I'm not seeing how the much heavier early WR strategy was an "adjustment" so that you wouldn't miss out on RBs again??? To me, it just looks like you picked better WRs in the Primetime than the Classic. Switch those, and your Classic's probably doing better.

I guess I have to respond to this, since I didn't make myself clear enough in my original post.... I said "preparation" is a skill. If you do it right, you have a much better chance of competing. I prepared myself for 2 RBs in the first 2 rounds in both the Super and the Classic,(I did get my 2 RBs in the Super) and prepared myself for 3 or 4 WR's at the beginning of the Primetime, if for no other reason than knowing my competition and my draft position. So, when you prepare yourself to draft one way, and then don't, you set yourself up for failure. I was all over the place in the classic, instead of taking 2 RBs, I took 2 WR's. Then it was a train wreck the rest of the way, taking guys I didn't want because I had to, such as Sproles and Gates, both you will not find on any of my other teams.. I just thought they were not going to play up to their ranking. I did not draft one guy that I planned on drafting in the classic. In the Primetime, and you can even confirm this with Michael E. as we were talking during the dinner break, that I was high on AJ Green and was going to take him in the 2nd round, after either Julio Jones or Fitz in the 1st round. Then my plan was either Manning or Ryan, then 4 straight RB's then my TE's etc. Other than the fact that I took Jones in the 1st and Fitz in the 2nd, because I didn't expect him there, and then Green in the 3rd, I followed my strategy almost completely. I am sure nobody cares, but obviously Mr. Sandman needs an explanation. My point was, there is a lot of skill in draft preparation and if you do follow your strategy, you have a better chance of winning most of the time.. Sure there are injuries that mess things up, but I lost one of my top RB's for the season in Benson, but still have 3 more starting RB's because I planned to have depth in the Primetime... while nothing I planned occurred in the Classic... OK do I need to explain myself further or would you like a round by round analysis, as you have obviously researched my drafts?? Shall we speak of Tebow starting for the Jets now?

[Route C]

Educated guessing: that's all we do....and that nearly always based on the shoulders of someone elses work.

Someone else compiles the stats
Someone else goes to training camp
Someone else attends the practices
Someone else asks questions at the press conferences
Someone else reports breaking news

We watch TV
We scan the net
We follow trends
We guess...plain and simple

Some would say "I follow my football instincts to success"

Fine then do this and I will acknowledge your PHD and award you the certificate "Dr. of FF skill"

Compile your own stats...no cheating..you must watch every game and write them down
Go to all the training camps, practices and all the press conferences. You should easily be granted access based on your impressive skill level.
No piggybacking others hard work to get your info...remember...you're a pro.

Finally...own only 1 FF team per year (this is how they do it in the NFL) and show a profit after 5 years like a real business.
I'm pretty sure even Jerry Jones has only 1 team (no bet hedging)

If you can do this then you are truly a FF skill master. If not go ahead and fill out your 50th NCAA tournament bracket because you're still just guessing!

[Sandman62]

Am I the only one who interpreted Jets' post as "In my Classic, I got caught up in the WR run and ended up short on RBs; so I 'adjusted my strategy in the Primetime', meaning, 'I DIDN'T draft WRs early' and my team came out better'"

That's sure how it read to me. And seeing I'm in both of these leagues with you, I was curious how accurate that was.

Hmm, in your Classic, you took 2 TEs and 2 QBs in the first 9 rounds, AFTER taking 3 WRs in the first 5 rounds. Why are you surprised you ended up thin at RB? You also drafted your Jets DST in round 15, though CHI's DST was still available.
But in your Primetime, you drafted CHI's #1 DST in round 17, after 9 other DSTs were gone. Skill or luck?

[JETS SB]

Am I the only one who interpreted Jets' post as "In my Classic, I got caught up in the WR run and ended up short on RBs; so I 'adjusted my strategy in the Primetime', meaning, 'I DIDN'T draft WRs early' and my team came out better'":?:

That's sure how it read to me. And seeing I'm in both of these leagues with you, I was curious how accurate that was.

Hmm, in your Classic, you took 2 TEs and 2 QBs in the first 9 rounds, AFTER taking 3 WRs in the first 5 rounds. Why are you surprised you ended up thin at RB? You also drafted your Jets DST in round 15, though CHI's DST was still available.
But in your Primetime, you drafted CHI's #1 DST in round 17, after 9 other DSTs were gone. Skill or luck?

Oh My God.. I really dont think anyone cares, other than you.. and you are missing the entire point. You have a strategy and you keep it and you have a better chance, in my opinion. I personally think the 3-4 WR strategy at the beginning of the draft only works at the higher (7-14) draft positions because with the 3RR you can get a very good 3rd WR in round 3, which in my case was AJ Green in the Primetime. At the 5 spot in the classic, I wanted to go RB,RB,WR,WR,WR,QB... Nothing like it ended up happening. In the Primetime, I decided to stick with my plan of 3-4 WR since I was at the 10 position.. and again.. no one cares.. if you want to think it is all luck, then fine.. you have the right to your opinion... I am done trying to explain my draft strategy to you. No one cares. I believe there is skill in draft strategy and preparation.. if you want to think otherwise, I dont care.

[Sandman62]

I think your Classic draft strategy (and skills) were just fine; you were just unlucky.

Please understand Al, that this isn't at all meant to pick on you or criticize your draft. I'm trying to illustrate the skill vs. luck point and how, even with a very good player like you, from league to league sometimes the chips just fall elsewhere. I'm also not saying "Haha, you should've taken those other players!". Rather, I think you had a sound strategy and there was nothing at all crazy about the players you took when you did or their ADPs wouldn't have been where they were. Personally, I really liked your team out of the draft, thinking its only potential hole could be at QB (an obvious intentional wait on your part that's really paid off, starting in your week 1 trouncing of me ).

As I said, from a strategy standpoint, I think it could've worked out a lot better had you been more fortunate with some of your picks - either by them performing more like their alternatives or by drafting slightly different, but similarly-valued players.

Your first 8 rounds were:
WR Calvin Johnson
WR Andre Johnson ADP Rank: 7
RB Darren Sproles ADP Rank: 10
TE Antonio Gates
WR Stevie Johnson ADP Rank: 25
RB Cedric Benson ADP Rank: 29
TE Jermichael Finley
QB Robert Griffin III
DST New York (A) ADP Rank: 11

What if instead, you had taken:
WR Calvin Johnson
WR A.J. Green ADP Rank: 8
RB Adrian Peterson ADP Rank: 12
TE Antonio Gates
WR Reggie Wayne ADP Rank: 29
RB C.J. Spiller ADP Rank: 30
TE Jermichael Finley
QB Robert Griffin III
DST Chicago ADP Rank: 8 (whom you drafted in your Primetime)

Drafting the exact same positions in the exact same rounds, but taking these very-similarly-valued alternative players would've yielded a lot more points. By my calculations, over 300. (email me if you want the spreadsheet ). So instead of you currently being 12th in points and 183 points back from 1st, you would've been in 1st by 124.

Does this disparity make you "unskillful"? I don't think so or you wouldn't have been capable of drafting such a solid, contending Primetime team. I just think you were quite "unlucky" in how the players you drafted have performed, despite them being just as valid on draft day as their alternatives. Or were you just much "luckier" in your Primetime draft?

As others have said, at this level of competition, almost everyone has the skills necessary to compete. And all of our games have elements of skill. But it still does take some luck to succeed too. In any given league, I've seen some of the best owners have absolutely dominant teams, or absolutely terrible. Overall though, we probably ALL have more bad teams than good. But as long as the good ones earn enough prize money to cover the bad ones, or we at least come close to cashing (so that we don't start thinking "Man, I suck at this!"), then we keep coming back.

So IMO "skillful" doesn't mean "Wins most of his leagues", but probably more like "Ranks in the top 1/4 or 1/3 of at least some leagues" (whether that means cashing or not), because afterall, in 12-team leagues, only 2 teams cash. I'd venture a guess that some of those teams who finished 3rd or 4th were often still pretty solid teams, but fell just a bit short - often due to just plain bad luck.

[DonnyG.]

Educated guessing: that's all we do....and that nearly always based on the shoulders of someone elses work.

Someone else compiles the stats
Someone else goes to training camp
Someone else attends the practices
Someone else asks questions at the press conferences
Someone else reports breaking news

We watch TV
We scan the net
We follow trends
We guess...plain and simple

Some would say "I follow my football instincts to success"

Fine then do this and I will acknowledge your PHD and award you the certificate "Dr. of FF skill"

Compile your own stats...no cheating..you must watch every game and write them down
Go to all the training camps, practices and all the press conferences. You should easily be granted access based on your impressive skill level.
No piggybacking others hard work to get your info...remember...you're a pro.

Finally...own only 1 FF team per year (this is how they do it in the NFL) and show a profit after 5 years like a real business.
I'm pretty sure even Jerry Jones has only 1 team (no bet hedging)

If you can do this then you are truly a FF skill master. If not go ahead and fill out your 50th NCAA tournament bracket because you're still just guessing!

EDUCATED GUESSING 60% SKILL 40% LUCK is what I have stated in this thread 3 times now. AND that is again, during the best, worst and mediocre of times. My opinion does not, and will not change based on the success or lack thereof, in any given season including this one.

[Route C]

Educated guessing: that's all we do....and that nearly always based on the shoulders of someone elses work.

Someone else compiles the stats
Someone else goes to training camp
Someone else attends the practices
Someone else asks questions at the press conferences
Someone else reports breaking news

We watch TV
We scan the net
We follow trends
We guess...plain and simple

Some would say "I follow my football instincts to success"

Fine then do this and I will acknowledge your PHD and award you the certificate "Dr. of FF skill"

Compile your own stats...no cheating..you must watch every game and write them down
Go to all the training camps, practices and all the press conferences. You should easily be granted access based on your impressive skill level.
No piggybacking others hard work to get your info...remember...you're a pro.

Finally...own only 1 FF team per year (this is how they do it in the NFL) and show a profit after 5 years like a real business.
I'm pretty sure even Jerry Jones has only 1 team (no bet hedging)

If you can do this then you are truly a FF skill master. If not go ahead and fill out your 50th NCAA tournament bracket because you're still just guessing!

EDUCATED GUESSING 60% SKILL 40% LUCK is what I have stated in this thread 3 times now. AND that is again, during the best, worst and mediocre of times. My opinion does not, and will not change based on the success or lack thereof, in any given season including this one.

Not sure why you responded that way to my post. I wasn't really talking to you or anyone in particular. I didn't even know who started this thread