3RR Point/Counterpoint For The Magazine

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:22 am

Nag:
1) Where did lou go? Is he hiding now?

2) 3RR DIRECTLY impacts rounds 3-18, yet you continue to focus on the 1st round (specifically the first 3 picks in the draft). Why? Won't these picks be the same in a 3RR and a regular serpentine draft?

3) Again, you have stated that you are using ADP for the year 2002. In addition, you have made it crystal clear that folks shouldn't consider WCOFF results because it's a 12 team league. My question (2nd time I've asked you...maybe you missed it the first time) is where did you get 14 team ADP for the year 2002?

4) Cast doubt on you??? Your whole premise resides in Doubtsville

TURBOUGH · Post by **TURBOUGH** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:37 am

**Dumb Ass Alert**

What does KDS stand for? I honestly don't know.

TURBOUGH · Post by **TURBOUGH** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:38 am

I've got to ask you guys (Lou, Gordo & Nag), what do you do for a living?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:47 am

Originally posted by TURBOUGH:
**Dumb Ass Alert**

What does KDS stand for? I honestly don't know.

Kentucky Derby System. It's the way people can rank their draft slot preferences.

TURBOUGH · Post by **TURBOUGH** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 1:02 am

Thanks. I KNOW that I would have nevered figured that one out.

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:45 am

Originally posted by UFS:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Nag':
[qb] [QUOTE]Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
[qb]
The talent AT DRAFT TIME is more evenly distributed. The draft decisions by all picks are more the same. There will no longer be a HUGE perceived or statistically proven over any 10-year period advantage. End of Story.

All this BS talk about injuries in prior years is just that, after-the-fact BS.

You are going to see about 55% of the years with 3RR/KDS favor the top end of the draft, and about 45% of the drafts favor the bottom end of the draft, and most of that will be due to injuries, but some years, you will see a breakout from a bottom pick and that's all fine and dandy.

This will be a change from the current 75-80/20-25 ratio.

You'll see two straight years of the top end winning like the last two, you'll see two or three straight years of the bottom end winning, you'll see years where it flip-flops every year for a few years. YOU WILL SEE WHAT YOU'VE SEEN IF YOU'VE PLAYED NFBC BASEBALL EVERY YEAR.

Like Greg has mentioned, another layer of skill has been added to the contest. This makes the contest HARDER to win. Harder contests are more conducive to having long term success. Owners quit playing games that are easy to play.

This is my opinion based on hosting, inputting, managing, and personally analyzing over 1000 fantasy drafts over many moons.

At the end of the day, what matters most is that owners will still have to nail their picks to win.

It's going to be easier to nail picks from the back end now and it's about time.

Greg, use any or all of this for your article if you like. I may just be a hick from Indiana (is that percieved or statistically proven) but this post makes the most sense of the last 15-20 I've read on this subject.

wayne123 · Post by **wayne123** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 3:16 am

Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by Blue_Foot:
Na Nag, your not getting off that easy. The points should be even more slanted in fantasy football due to less rosters and known commodities. The fact is, somebody will get the chance to draft LT#1 next year! And yes, that is definately worth a 3/1 edge. Note: 3/1 doesn't just mean points he scores versus others, it has to do with the percieved value of the pick! That is what matters! I think you've gone way too far into the world of unprovable theories. You can try to show how NFL rankings are just like FF and I can show they are not until the end of time and neither one of us will ever be proven right/wrong. [/QUOTE]Perhaps! But, I am willing to "go out on a limb" and predict that the best draft slot to have under 3RR remains the number 1 pick. I would accept 3RR, and 4RR and 5RR for the first draft pick! Yep, it is that much of a value pick. The more I look at this, the more I realize how rediculous it is....the number one pick is simply way more valuable than the rest of the draft. I am not surprised that it is hard to win from the first slot, but on day one, before the football starts...whoever has the 1st pick is off to a huge headstart. You can deny that theory all you want, but it won't change a thing...we both want the first pick!

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 4:58 am

Originally posted by SNAKE:
Nag'

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Conjecture = A statement, opinion, or conclusion based on guesswork
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Btw, your keen ability to use an online dictionary is highly impressive.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...shall she now be called GiGi, Gordon Webster or Mark Webster?...SNAKE And this whole time I thought a conjecture was a word to connect sentences/phrases, ie: and, but, etc. Thanks guys!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 5:09 am

Anyone see nag or lou?

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:23 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Nag:
1) Where did lou go? Is he hiding now?

2) 3RR DIRECTLY impacts rounds 3-18, yet you continue to focus on the 1st round (specifically the first 3 picks in the draft). Why? Won't these picks be the same in a 3RR and a regular serpentine draft?

3) Again, you have stated that you are using ADP for the year 2002. In addition, you have made it crystal clear that folks shouldn't consider WCOFF results because it's a 12 team league. My question (2nd time I've asked you...maybe you missed it the first time) is where did you get 14 team ADP for the year 2002?

4) Cast doubt on you??? Your whole premise resides in Doubtsville Ok, I'm not going to play your game any further. I already exposed what you're doing and now you're continuing to do it anyway.

Any sane or fairminded person understands by looking at the ADP and final season stats that there was absolutely no top pick advantage in 2002. None. Not for 12 team leagues, not for 14 team leagues. To dispute this only shows bias.

So here are the facts, as stated by me, Lou, Leroy's Aces and a few others, some who have not posted here.

Looking back at the last 5 years:

2002 - no top pick advantage, a likely mid/late pick advantage
2003 - slight top pick advantage
2004 - no top pick advantage
2005/2006 - top pick dominance.

In summary:

3RR was implemented to combat the kind of top pick dominance which was evident in 2005/2006. Should 3RR work as intended (also in doubt, but a seperate issue), it will help to better distribute strength from the top slots to the rest. But recent history shows that the top pick dominance of 2005/2006 was not the rule, rather the exeption to the rule. There is no evidence to suggest that 2005/2006 will continue. It is quite possible that the next 2 years will look like the 2002 or 2004, in which case 3RR would have been completely unnecessary and in fact, would very likely artificially and unfairly tilt the advantage to the lower slots.
So the question remains, was 3RR a knee-jerk reaction to 2005/2006? Answer - of course it was. Had the last 2 seasons been similar to 2002 or 2004, 3RR would have been an afterthought. Anyone suggesting it would have been laughed off these boards, likely by the same people who are pimping 3RR right now.
And this has nothing to do with whether 3RR will or will not be effective, which is a totally seperate issue and deserves to be questioned.