NFFC Notables

KOTRAX
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NFFC Notables

Post by KOTRAX » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:05 am

HOWEVER WHERE PLAYERS ARE TAKEN IS WHAT DEFINES THE ADP. I JUST DON'T THINK ANYBODY WHO TOOK AP IN THE THIRD AND MOSS IN THE FOURTH SHOWED A "GREAT" LEVEL OF SKILL. NOW IF THE TOOK THEM IN THE 2ND AND 3RD RESPECTIVELY THEN I WOULD SAY THAT BECAUSE THAT IS CLEARLY EARLIER THAN WHAT THE "AVERAGE" DRAFTER WAS DOING. EVEN THOUGH MOSS IN THE THIRD COULD BE JUSTIFIED. JUST MY OPINION.

Greg Ambrosius
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NFFC Notables

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:14 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Diesel:
A lot of hard work goes into Fantasy Football unfortunately hard work does not equate to success in fantasy football, at least not this year :D [/QUOTE]GG, I should probably stay out of this luck vs. skill debate once again, but I just can't help myself. When some folks win, it's skill and they love to brag about their talents. When others win, it's luck and they don't give the credit where credit is deserved. Your quote above is just not accurate at all.

This year it may actually take MORE skill than ever before to win a league title and the overall title. Owners who never quit on their pickups and their foresight into bye weeks, backups for stars, and free agent pickups will win NFFC titles this year. And they will have won them with SKILL.

If you just look at this week's top overall team -- Go Gettas -- you'll see that two of his top players are Derek Anderson and Bobby Engram. He drafted Engram in the 15th round and picked up Derek Anderson via free agency. Was that luck or skill? Well, he's sitting with a 212 point week and a Troy Aikman signed mini-helmet, so it must have been a little skillful.

To win this year, you MUST have depth on your roster and be prepared for the bye weeks. You can NEVER have too much depth. And if you look at the free agent lists each week, you can see the teams that are constantly adding depth each week to compensate for the injuries that are happening to everyone.

Looking at the ADP list from 2007, give owners credit for picking the following players:
Wes Welker - 113th ADP
Patrick Crayton - 135
Brian Leonard - 140
Dwayne Bowe - 178
Bobby Engram - 199
Antwaan Randle El - 211

Derek Anderson was picked up for as little as $1 in the first week of FAAB. Here are some key pickups from each of the FAAB weeks so far:

Week 2
Derek Anderson
Dwayne Bowe
Bobby Engram
Nick Folk
Jacoby Jones
Kenton Keith
Shaun McDonald
Derek Ward
DeShawn Wynn

Week 3
Derek Anderson
Ike Hilliard
Nick Folk
Donald Lee
Kevin Walter
Roydell Williams

Week 4
Daunte Culpepper
Andre Davis
Earnest Graham
Brian Griese
Michael Jenkins
Kurt Warner
Kenny Watson

Week 5
Kris Brown
Ike Hilliard

Week 6
Cleo Lemon
Ben Obomanu
Greg Olsen

Did you add any of these players to your rosters? If so, maybe it's helped fill in the holes left by injuries. Or maybe injuries have depleted your roster and even these FAAB pickups wouldn't have helped. But the bottom line is that success can be found via free agency and at times it's enough to get through the bye weeks and short-term injuries. The owners who have been able to continually add to their rosters have been successful this year. And yes, there is some luck involved in all of this. But to discount the skills of those owners at the top right now is almost demeaning to those owners who are having great years.
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Raiders
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NFFC Notables

Post by Raiders » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:26 am

Greg,
I agree 100%.
This years winner, should be ranked in the top 10 of NFFC. For those all care about the overall rankings of NFFC.
But without question this years winner would have won on skill and not luck.
Skill-80% Luck-20%.
I don't care how many players on your roster got hurt or missed some time. You or that person has to over come that. Look at my roster I have my share of injuries and I'm not making any excuses to why I'm doing so bad. I my friends am just not one of the better FF players.
Good luck the rest of the way to everyone.

[ October 17, 2007, 09:28 AM: Message edited by: Raiders ]

Greg Ambrosius
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NFFC Notables

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:29 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Nah, peterson in the 3d and moss in the 4th were skill to me Peterson and Moss represent two of the toughest decisions EVERY owner had to make on Draft Day as they obviously were there for them 2, 3, 4, 5 and even 6 times. Yes, Moss went with the eighth pick in the SIXTH ROUND of the NFFC Ultimate League as Glenn Schroter asked if Randy Moss had died before passing on him like everyone else before him did. He went to the next owner, who is a Patriots' fan and now the first place team in that league.

Peterson's ADP was 38, right there with Clinton Portis (35), Carnell Williams (40), Deuce McAllister (41), Ahman Green (42), Marshawn Lynch (44), Marion Barber (47) and Jamal Lewis (49). To say he was the easy choice in the third round isn't accurate. Some folks made some correct decisions and some folks made some unfortunate decisions at that point in the draft. Give kudos to those who were fortunate enough to get Peterson.

Moss' ADP was 46 in the NFFC, but he went all across the board as we know from various draft boards. Again, folks easily took Marques Colston (36), Donald Driver (43) and even Plaxico Burress (48) ahead of him, with Hines Ward (51), Deion Branch (52) and Laveranues Coles (54) going ahead of him in some leagues. For those owners who grabbed Moss, give them credit for some foresight as I know I passed on him in 7 of 8 leagues I'm currently in. I'm just glad I have him in one league thus far.

Skill or luck on these guys? I'd say skill as GG noted because both were tough calls heading into the season and now both look like aces today.
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Greg Ambrosius
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NFFC Notables

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:40 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Taking players at their adp exhibits a level of skill to me. And as you know, sometimes you have to take players ahead of their ADP if you feel strongly enough about them. Laurence Maroney's ADP was 12 in the NFFC main event, but you and others took him ahead of that because you felt strongly about him. The fact that he has been injured is bad luck, but you made the picks based on research and feelings about the Patriots this year. They are scoring like folks thought they would this year, but obviously it's through the air, not on the ground.

In the NFBC, KJ Duke and Todd Zola took Jimmy Rollins well ahead of his ADP and rode his great year to success. Sometimes you have to go ahead of the grain to be successful and it takes some skill and conviction to do that. But as we all know, injuries can over-ride those skills at times, but backing up some of those top picks (Sammy Morris) could cover some of that bad luck at times.
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Tom Kessenich
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Post by Tom Kessenich » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:42 am

Paul Clein is our current NFFC leader. He drafted 13th in Chicago League 1. His top players are:

Willis McGahee (1st round)
Steve Smith (2nd round)
Ronnie Brown (3rd round)
Braylon Edwards (5th round)
Tony Romo (6th round)
Kellen Winslow (7th round)

He drafted Kenny Watson in the 16th and picked up Nick Folk in FAAB. There's certainly some luck involved with Watson producing given how Rudi Johnson had been incredibly durable prior to this season but you have to give Paul credit for targeting him late. Folk was a sharp pickup in FAAB.

Brown going off has been a huge plus and maybe there's a little luck involved there but if Paul really believed in him than he deserves credit for getting huge value in the third round. Edwards, Winslow and Romo are all players having huge seasons and I believe Paul should be praised for his skill in drafting them.

The one area where luck has probably been involved the most for Paul is that he hasn't had any major injuries so far. I'm not trying to jinx you, Paul. So there's good fortune involved in that regard. But looking at his team, I see a guy who drafted very well and has made at least one good pickup in FAAB.

He also drafted Selvin Young in the 17th round so that's another pick that could have huge value as the season goes on.
Tom Kessenich
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Inf4life
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NFFC Notables

Post by Inf4life » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:44 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Diesel:
A lot of hard work goes into Fantasy Football unfortunately hard work does not equate to success in fantasy football, at least not this year :D [/QUOTE]GG, I should probably stay out of this luck vs. skill debate once again, but I just can't help myself. When some folks win, it's skill and they love to brag about their talents. When others win, it's luck and they don't give the credit where credit is deserved. Your quote above is just not accurate at all.

This year it may actually take MORE skill than ever before to win a league title and the overall title. Owners who never quit on their pickups and their foresight into bye weeks, backups for stars, and free agent pickups will win NFFC titles this year. And they will have won them with SKILL.

If you just look at this week's top overall team -- Go Gettas -- you'll see that two of his top players are Derek Anderson and Bobby Engram. He drafted Engram in the 15th round and picked up Derek Anderson via free agency. Was that luck or skill? Well, he's sitting with a 212 point week and a Troy Aikman signed mini-helmet, so it must have been a little skillful.

[/QUOTE]Well, thank you for the kudos Greg. Like I said in Tom's write up, Engram was a great value pick for us. He's not flashy but he's consistent. The Derek Anderson pick up was based on Steve McNair's health issues. Had a feeling that his huge game against the Bengals showed promise and we like his upcoming schedule when our team was on bye week so we snatched him up. Overpaid for him a little bit but obviously it was worth it. We'll see how it works out for the rest of the season though.
2007 NFFC Classic Champion

KOTRAX
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Post by KOTRAX » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:45 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Nah, peterson in the 3d and moss in the 4th were skill to me Peterson and Moss represent two of the toughest decisions EVERY owner had to make on Draft Day as they obviously were there for them 2, 3, 4, 5 and even 6 times. Yes, Moss went with the eighth pick in the SIXTH ROUND of the NFFC Ultimate League as Glenn Schroter asked if Randy Moss had died before passing on him like everyone else before him did. He went to the next owner, who is a Patriots' fan and now the first place team in that league.

Peterson's ADP was 38, right there with Clinton Portis (35), Carnell Williams (40), Deuce McAllister (41), Ahman Green (42), Marshawn Lynch (44), Marion Barber (47) and Jamal Lewis (49). To say he was the easy choice in the third round isn't accurate. Some folks made some correct decisions and some folks made some unfortunate decisions at that point in the draft. Give kudos to those who were fortunate enough to get Peterson.

Moss' ADP was 46 in the NFFC, but he went all across the board as we know from various draft boards. Again, folks easily took Marques Colston (36), Donald Driver (43) and even Plaxico Burress (48) ahead of him, with Hines Ward (51), Deion Branch (52) and Laveranues Coles (54) going ahead of him in some leagues. For those owners who grabbed Moss, give them credit for some foresight as I know I passed on him in 7 of 8 leagues I'm currently in. I'm just glad I have him in one league thus far.

Skill or luck on these guys? I'd say skill as GG noted because both were tough calls heading into the season and now both look like aces today.
[/QUOTE]GREAT POINTS GREG. I AM NOT GOING TO SAY PEOPLE WHO GOT AP AND MOSS DIDN'T HAVE SKILL AT ALL. HOWEVER PICKING THEM IN THE THIRD AND FOURTH WERE NOT "REACHES" BY ANY MEANS. TO ME SKILL SAYS I HAVE TO TAKE THIS PERSON NOW BECAUSE THERE IS NO CHANCE I GET HIM THE NEXT ROUND. EXAMPLE IF YOU HAD THE FIFTH PICK AND IN THE SECOND YOU WANTED A GOOD WR. IF YOU DID NOT HOUSHMANDZEDAH THERE YOU WERE NOT GOING TO GET HIM IN THE THIRD. NOW THAT IS SKILL TO ME. TAKING A PLAYER WELL ABOVE THEIR ADP AND GETTING GREAT RESULTS.

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Post by Gordon Gekko » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:49 am

Sure, both skill and luck come into play. It’s OBVIOUS that owners who never quit on their pickups and had foresight into bye weeks, backups for stars, and free agent pickups will win NFFC titles. It’s also OBVIOUS that owners who got “lucky” will win NFFC titles. What the actual % is, no one knows.

As far as taking more skill to win this year as opposed to other years, honestly who knows? I probably wouldn’t agree with your statement though. 18 man rosters, bye weeks, and major injuries (like this year), are crippling some teams, no matter how good the owner or weak the league is.

I hope I’m not coming across as demeaning anyone. I applaud owners who took Peterson in the 3rd and Moss in the 4th

And as far as discounting skills of owners, I don’t see how drafting Peterson in the 4th (or later) or Moss in the 5th (or later) in a 14 team league shows much skill. Maybe you think there was a lot of skill involved with those types of picks. I don’t.

As time has passed since my 100K run, I have begun to realize how much “luck” came into play. And when you equate fantasy football to fantasy baseball, I can easily see how much more luck comes into playing fantasy football.

[ October 17, 2007, 09:53 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]
Is my "weekend warrior" prep better than your prep?

Greg Ambrosius
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Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:54 am

Originally posted by KOTRAX:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
[qb] [QUOTE] [qb]GREAT POINTS GREG. I AM NOT GOING TO SAY PEOPLE WHO GOT AP AND MOSS DIDN'T HAVE SKILL AT ALL. HOWEVER PICKING THEM IN THE THIRD AND FOURTH WERE NOT "REACHES" BY ANY MEANS. TO ME SKILL SAYS I HAVE TO TAKE THIS PERSON NOW BECAUSE THERE IS NO CHANCE I GET HIM THE NEXT ROUND. EXAMPLE IF YOU HAD THE FIFTH PICK AND IN THE SECOND YOU WANTED A GOOD WR. IF YOU DID NOT HOUSHMANDZEDAH THERE YOU WERE NOT GOING TO GET HIM IN THE THIRD. NOW THAT IS SKILL TO ME. TAKING A PLAYER WELL ABOVE THEIR ADP AND GETTING GREAT RESULTS. [/QUOTE]I don't agree with you Ormond because only sheep follow the exact lead of the ADP rankings before Draft Day. With 3RR, folks had to make tough decisions whether to take an RB or a WR in the second round, knowing where they drafted and what would be left when it came back to them in the next round. Just because Peterson was at 38 and Moss was at 46 doesn't mean those owners just grabbed them at those spots. A lot of the decision went into whether those owners felt an RB was best at that spot or if a WR was best at that spot. Lots and lots of decisions went into each owners' minds at that point and some called out the right names using knowledge they brought into the draft with them. I give those owners plenty of credit.

Tom and I were just talking about our WCOFF draft. We targeted Peterson for 3.6 (30th overall) and he went at the start of the third round. That owner REALLY wanted him and it's killing us now that we didn't get him or have the chance in the third round to make that decision. That being said, we passed on Moss in the fourth round and gladly took Laveranues Coles. That was our call all the way and today it's looking like we made the wrong call. But we used our knowledge to make that decision.
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