Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by GK:
...to me the answer is rather obvious; it's simply The Year Of Attrition due to the sheer number of substantial INJURIES to more than quite a few significant players...anyone else disagree or have another theory here?...thanks much...GK I'm not so sure that it's been so much because of injuries to top players or more a matter of just a bunch of players we DIDN'T expect to do so well breaking out?
If you look at the top 20 players at each position in this link, you'll see what I mean: 2010 NFFC ADP & Actual Positional Ranks Through 6 Games. Look how many at each position that weren't really expected to do THIS well (top 20 at their position):
RB
Peyton Hillis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jahvid Best, Ahmad Bradshaw, Darren McFadden, Mike Tolbert (the only one whose production is related to an injury in front of him, Mathews)
WR
Austin Collie, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Malcom Floyd, Terrell Owens, Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Roy E. Williams, Braylon Edwards
TE
Dustin Keller, Benjamin Watson, Brandon Pettigrew, Marcedes Lewis, Jeremy Shockey, Aaron Hernandez, Tony Scheffler, Todd Heap, Jermaine Gresham, Tony Moeaki
We ALL hit on a couple players each year in the mid/late rounds. But I think that this year, with all of the lower-ADP players that are underperforming, I suspect that the best teams this year might have 3, 4 or 5 of the above players carrying their teams.
I agree though, that's it's "whacky" and frustrating. I sincerely hope that this bizarro fantasy season takes a regression to its mean soon, and that players who were drafted as studs come on strong. [/QUOTE]Missing A. Foster from this list.
FF 2010: TRULY WILD & WACKY!!!
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TradeStar28
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FF 2010: TRULY WILD & WACKY!!!
Originally posted by GK:
...simply curious here so I'll ask once again, does ANY FF owner out there NOW feel/think/believe that this year is NOT the WILDEST & WACKIEST since you stated playing this game due to a myriad of reasons?...GK I do not believe this year to be any different than other years.
Like Vince Neil once sang....."It's the same ole, same ole situation.....its the same ole, same ole song and dance."
Ofcourse, that Crue album was decent. But listen to some of the earlier stuff. You may like it.
...simply curious here so I'll ask once again, does ANY FF owner out there NOW feel/think/believe that this year is NOT the WILDEST & WACKIEST since you stated playing this game due to a myriad of reasons?...GK I do not believe this year to be any different than other years.
Like Vince Neil once sang....."It's the same ole, same ole situation.....its the same ole, same ole song and dance."
Ofcourse, that Crue album was decent. But listen to some of the earlier stuff. You may like it.
2012 - FI$HER - Flying High Again
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Cocktails and Dreams
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FF 2010: TRULY WILD & WACKY!!!
Originally posted by GK:
...simply curious here so I'll ask once again, does ANY FF owner out there NOW feel/think/believe that this year is NOT the WILDEST & WACKIEST since you stated playing this game due to a myriad of reasons?...GK I don't think it is very wacky. I own a lot of teams though so injury variance is balanced out a lot.
...simply curious here so I'll ask once again, does ANY FF owner out there NOW feel/think/believe that this year is NOT the WILDEST & WACKIEST since you stated playing this game due to a myriad of reasons?...GK I don't think it is very wacky. I own a lot of teams though so injury variance is balanced out a lot.
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King of Queens
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FF 2010: TRULY WILD & WACKY!!!
Originally posted by FI$HER:
Like Vince Neil once sang....."It's the same ole, same ole situation.....its the same ole, same ole song and dance."
Ofcourse, that Crue album was decent. But listen to some of the earlier stuff. You may like it. It's the same ol', same ol' situation
It's the same ol', same ol' ball and chain
I'll bet we were at the same concert at Nassau Colliseum in 1989 (Warrant was the opening act).
Like Vince Neil once sang....."It's the same ole, same ole situation.....its the same ole, same ole song and dance."
Ofcourse, that Crue album was decent. But listen to some of the earlier stuff. You may like it. It's the same ol', same ol' situation
It's the same ol', same ol' ball and chain
I'll bet we were at the same concert at Nassau Colliseum in 1989 (Warrant was the opening act).
FF 2010: TRULY WILD & WACKY!!!
Originally posted by Atlas:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by GK:
...to me the answer is rather obvious; it's simply The Year Of Attrition due to the sheer number of substantial INJURIES to more than quite a few significant players...anyone else disagree or have another theory here?...thanks much...GK I'm not so sure that it's been so much because of injuries to top players or more a matter of just a bunch of players we DIDN'T expect to do so well breaking out?
If you look at the top 20 players at each position in this link, you'll see what I mean: 2010 NFFC ADP & Actual Positional Ranks Through 6 Games. Look how many at each position that weren't really expected to do THIS well (top 20 at their position):
RB
Peyton Hillis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jahvid Best, Ahmad Bradshaw, Darren McFadden, Mike Tolbert (the only one whose production is related to an injury in front of him, Mathews)
WR
Austin Collie, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Malcom Floyd, Terrell Owens, Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Roy E. Williams, Braylon Edwards
TE
Dustin Keller, Benjamin Watson, Brandon Pettigrew, Marcedes Lewis, Jeremy Shockey, Aaron Hernandez, Tony Scheffler, Todd Heap, Jermaine Gresham, Tony Moeaki
We ALL hit on a couple players each year in the mid/late rounds. But I think that this year, with all of the lower-ADP players that are underperforming, I suspect that the best teams this year might have 3, 4 or 5 of the above players carrying their teams.
I agree though, that's it's "whacky" and frustrating. I sincerely hope that this bizarro fantasy season takes a regression to its mean soon, and that players who were drafted as studs come on strong. [/QUOTE]Missing A. Foster from this list. [/QUOTE]Not really. His NFFC ADP was 22nd among RBs and that was probably including several weeks of drafts before the main events. By the main events, he was already going in the 2nd or 3rd round, largely based on his breakout 3rd preseason game.
[ November 11, 2010, 07:51 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by GK:
...to me the answer is rather obvious; it's simply The Year Of Attrition due to the sheer number of substantial INJURIES to more than quite a few significant players...anyone else disagree or have another theory here?...thanks much...GK I'm not so sure that it's been so much because of injuries to top players or more a matter of just a bunch of players we DIDN'T expect to do so well breaking out?
If you look at the top 20 players at each position in this link, you'll see what I mean: 2010 NFFC ADP & Actual Positional Ranks Through 6 Games. Look how many at each position that weren't really expected to do THIS well (top 20 at their position):
RB
Peyton Hillis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jahvid Best, Ahmad Bradshaw, Darren McFadden, Mike Tolbert (the only one whose production is related to an injury in front of him, Mathews)
WR
Austin Collie, Brandon Lloyd, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Malcom Floyd, Terrell Owens, Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Roy E. Williams, Braylon Edwards
TE
Dustin Keller, Benjamin Watson, Brandon Pettigrew, Marcedes Lewis, Jeremy Shockey, Aaron Hernandez, Tony Scheffler, Todd Heap, Jermaine Gresham, Tony Moeaki
We ALL hit on a couple players each year in the mid/late rounds. But I think that this year, with all of the lower-ADP players that are underperforming, I suspect that the best teams this year might have 3, 4 or 5 of the above players carrying their teams.
I agree though, that's it's "whacky" and frustrating. I sincerely hope that this bizarro fantasy season takes a regression to its mean soon, and that players who were drafted as studs come on strong. [/QUOTE]Missing A. Foster from this list. [/QUOTE]Not really. His NFFC ADP was 22nd among RBs and that was probably including several weeks of drafts before the main events. By the main events, he was already going in the 2nd or 3rd round, largely based on his breakout 3rd preseason game.
[ November 11, 2010, 07:51 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
FF 2010: TRULY WILD & WACKY!!!
Originally posted by FI$HER:
quote:Originally posted by GK:
...simply curious here so I'll ask once again, does ANY FF owner out there NOW feel/think/believe that this year is NOT the WILDEST & WACKIEST since you stated playing this game due to a myriad of reasons?...GK I do not believe this year to be any different than other years.
Like Vince Neil once sang....."It's the same ole, same ole situation.....its the same ole, same ole song and dance."
Ofcourse, that Crue album was decent. But listen to some of the earlier stuff. You may like it. [/QUOTE]Upon quick glance at your main event teams, I can see why you don't feel this year's too wacky - YOUR teams don't have a bunch of these outta-nowhere players on them who are the new studs. For instance, in our Primetime, we're 6-3, one game back from two teams, but still 160 points back (we're 3rd). One of them (though pretty solid overall) has both Collie AND Lloyd (and got a huge early season boost out of them), the other one (60 pts ahead of us) has LT, TO and Marcedes Lewis.
Yes, players outperform projections every year. I still think if you look at most of the top 20, 30, maybe 50 teams, a larger chunk than normal are where they are based more on their breakout players than solidly-drafted cores.
I'm also not surprised that teams who are doing well this year would claim there's nothing wacky going on.
Meanwhile, numerous industry pundits, including our own Tom Kessenich, clearly feel that this is one of the most unpredictable years ever in Fantasy Football. :rolleyes: I concur (and we're currently in 1st and 3rd in our Classic and Primetime leagues - but in the middle or worse in several others, largely due to underperforming past studs and injuries).
quote:Originally posted by GK:
...simply curious here so I'll ask once again, does ANY FF owner out there NOW feel/think/believe that this year is NOT the WILDEST & WACKIEST since you stated playing this game due to a myriad of reasons?...GK I do not believe this year to be any different than other years.
Like Vince Neil once sang....."It's the same ole, same ole situation.....its the same ole, same ole song and dance."
Ofcourse, that Crue album was decent. But listen to some of the earlier stuff. You may like it. [/QUOTE]Upon quick glance at your main event teams, I can see why you don't feel this year's too wacky - YOUR teams don't have a bunch of these outta-nowhere players on them who are the new studs. For instance, in our Primetime, we're 6-3, one game back from two teams, but still 160 points back (we're 3rd). One of them (though pretty solid overall) has both Collie AND Lloyd (and got a huge early season boost out of them), the other one (60 pts ahead of us) has LT, TO and Marcedes Lewis.
Yes, players outperform projections every year. I still think if you look at most of the top 20, 30, maybe 50 teams, a larger chunk than normal are where they are based more on their breakout players than solidly-drafted cores.
I'm also not surprised that teams who are doing well this year would claim there's nothing wacky going on.
Meanwhile, numerous industry pundits, including our own Tom Kessenich, clearly feel that this is one of the most unpredictable years ever in Fantasy Football. :rolleyes: I concur (and we're currently in 1st and 3rd in our Classic and Primetime leagues - but in the middle or worse in several others, largely due to underperforming past studs and injuries).
FF 2010: TRULY WILD & WACKY!!!
Here are my thoughts:
Injuries - seem pretty normal to me this year. There are numerous complaints every single year about guys getting hurt but I can't tell that there are more or less than any other year.
Top Round Picks - every year about 50% of the top picks (any position) do no live up to their projections either due to poor play, poor situations, or injuries. Some of this is avoidable, some of it isn't.
Mid Round Gems - Seems about the same as always this year. Several have become studs but that always happens.
Late Rounders - This is also somewhat similiar but the biggest difference to me is how late these guys were going this year. In 09 Charles/Austin/Rice were in that 8th - 13th round range. This year Hillis/Collie/Lloyd were 12th - undrafted. I can't remember (although Im sure it has happened) a top 3 RB coming from as far down as Hillis and a top 5 WR being completely undrafted. Even Colston was drafted in some leagues his rookie year. I'm sure there are examples but they just aren't coming to mind.
The thing that makes injuries more or less noticable is if they are happening to YOU or not. If you have tons of teams then it seems normal. If you just have a few then it could very well be that you are being affected more this year.
Wayne
Injuries - seem pretty normal to me this year. There are numerous complaints every single year about guys getting hurt but I can't tell that there are more or less than any other year.
Top Round Picks - every year about 50% of the top picks (any position) do no live up to their projections either due to poor play, poor situations, or injuries. Some of this is avoidable, some of it isn't.
Mid Round Gems - Seems about the same as always this year. Several have become studs but that always happens.
Late Rounders - This is also somewhat similiar but the biggest difference to me is how late these guys were going this year. In 09 Charles/Austin/Rice were in that 8th - 13th round range. This year Hillis/Collie/Lloyd were 12th - undrafted. I can't remember (although Im sure it has happened) a top 3 RB coming from as far down as Hillis and a top 5 WR being completely undrafted. Even Colston was drafted in some leagues his rookie year. I'm sure there are examples but they just aren't coming to mind.
The thing that makes injuries more or less noticable is if they are happening to YOU or not. If you have tons of teams then it seems normal. If you just have a few then it could very well be that you are being affected more this year.
Wayne
FF 2010: TRULY WILD & WACKY!!!
I agree Wayne, though I do think that the WRs are what's most frustrating this year. RBs are always undpredictable, but IMO, for several years now, the top 20 or so WRs at the end of the year were mostly the ones expected; i.e. most of them were drafted in earlier rounds.
Here are the top 20 WRs at the end of last year. How many of them were surprises? Austin, Rice, the Giants Smith and Holmes? DeSean was barely outside the top 20 projected. Ward, Mason and Driver were still projected top 30, just not top 20.
Johnson Andre
Wayne Reggie
Moss Randy
Fitzgerald Larry
Welker Wes
Austin Miles
Marshall Brandon
Smith Steve
White Roddy
Rice Sidney
Ward Hines
Jackson Vincent
Holmes Santonio
Jackson DeSean
Colston Marques
Ochocinco Chad
Mason Derrick
Driver Donald
Boldin Anquan
Smith Steve
So I guess there were about 8 out of 20 that were surprises to varying degrees. But like you said Wayne, this year, the players who jumped into the top 20 (so far) seem to have come from much later rounds.
I know some people won't agree with this or like hearing it, but when that many of the top players at a position came from late rounds in drafts, the LUCK factor has gone way up. Unpredictability = more opportunity for teams that came away from the draft with weaker teams to excel. And for teams who did draft a solid core AND hit on these late-round fliers... they could likely be unstoppable.
[ November 11, 2010, 09:04 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
Here are the top 20 WRs at the end of last year. How many of them were surprises? Austin, Rice, the Giants Smith and Holmes? DeSean was barely outside the top 20 projected. Ward, Mason and Driver were still projected top 30, just not top 20.
Johnson Andre
Wayne Reggie
Moss Randy
Fitzgerald Larry
Welker Wes
Austin Miles
Marshall Brandon
Smith Steve
White Roddy
Rice Sidney
Ward Hines
Jackson Vincent
Holmes Santonio
Jackson DeSean
Colston Marques
Ochocinco Chad
Mason Derrick
Driver Donald
Boldin Anquan
Smith Steve
So I guess there were about 8 out of 20 that were surprises to varying degrees. But like you said Wayne, this year, the players who jumped into the top 20 (so far) seem to have come from much later rounds.
I know some people won't agree with this or like hearing it, but when that many of the top players at a position came from late rounds in drafts, the LUCK factor has gone way up. Unpredictability = more opportunity for teams that came away from the draft with weaker teams to excel. And for teams who did draft a solid core AND hit on these late-round fliers... they could likely be unstoppable.
[ November 11, 2010, 09:04 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]