Post
by RiFF » Tue Jul 18, 2006 11:07 am
Originally posted by King of Queens:
Here's the problem with having multiple bye week players -- yes, even in a points league:
* Your starting lineup is made up of 6 RBs/WRs (unless you have Gates and Heap or something like that)
* Your bench consists of various players who can be used in a bye week. These are your 7th, 8th, 9th etc best players at RB, WR and occasionally TE
* If one of your top 6 players have their bye, you are likely to use your 7th best player
* If two of your top 6 players have their bye in the same week, you are likely to use your 7th and 8th best players
* If three of your top 6 players have their bye in the same week, you are likely to use your 7th, 8th and 9th best players
* Yes, it is true that the 8th or 9th best player always has a chance to outperform the 7th best player. However, in all likelihood, your best bye-week lineup (i.e. the one that will score you the most POINTS) consists of using 5 of your Top 6 players, plus your 7th player
Hope I'm not revealing too much strategy here... KoQ...I agree with your analysis, but I don't believe you completed it. What your missing is including what is the upside/downside of drafting a "bad-fit" bye week player vs. a "good-fit" bye week player.
- for instance you can draft player A, but he has the same bye week as a starter you have already drafted. (bad-fit) This would necessitate using, in your example, both player 7 and player 8 in that bye week. And assuming player 7 averages 12 points a week and player 8 averages 10 points a week; you would theoretically lose 2 points to your overall points total by drafting player A.
-conversely you could draft player B, who has a different bye week to the starter you have already drafted. Again in your example this would allow you to use player 7 in both bye weeks and not have to use player 8. Again, theoretically giving you 2 more overall points.
-the missing part is comparing the expected overall results of player A to player B. If both are projected to score an equal number of points over the entire season; the optimal would be to draft player B and get the additional 2 points. BUT, if you project player A to score 250 points for the season and player B to score 240 points; you logically should draft player A because he will give you an additional 10 overall points in comparison to player B (250-240) . This would be a net gain of 8 points after deducting the negative 2 points you incurred by having to use player 8 in the bye week.
I also hope I'm not revealing your "real" intent Q .