$996

[Glenneration X]

I took him in the 9th round of a $20K league

8.09, and you pissed off a lot of people (myself included)

I almost took both Welker and Gordon at the 7/8 turn -- settled on just Welker. Curious to hear Jack's thoughts if taking Welker/Gordon would have been "risk-taking" or sheer lunacy.

Ahh yes, you're right. It was the 8th round. Now that you bring it up, I do recall your Welker pick clearly. I remember the pick and after the quick turn when the draft made it back to you, you and Mark huddling and discussing. I was sure you were going to double up with Gordon. I remember being surprised when you didn't and hoping he'd make it the half dozen or so picks back to me where I was prepared to take him.

Well, he did make it back and I did take him.

The 9th round is where I had been targeting him for the entire weekend after the news broke. I did manage to snag him there a couple times, but more often than not missed out by a pick or two. Each time I remember being a little disappointed.

Of greater disappointment is the short time period between the early drafts where I was targeting Gordon consistently and the late drafts referenced above, where there was that brief time everyone, including myself, passed on Gordon completely following the arbitration ruling and prior to the news of the union involvement. I wish I had been just a little more consistent and grabbed Gordon in the 20th rounds of those drafts. Well, at least I have Theo Riddick and Bryce Brown and others of that ilk that I grabbed there instead.

Going back to the topic at hand, I guess my argument isn't in regards to whether Gordon is worth the "risk", but whether he is worth an all-in bid this early in the season.... or if any player is. An 8th, 9th, or 10th round pick (or even a far earlier one) handcuffs a team far less than having no FAAB remaining for the final 12 of 13 FAAB periods in a no-trade league.

[afv]

I took him in the 9th round of a $20K league

8.09, and you pissed off a lot of people (myself included)

I almost took both Welker and Gordon at the 7/8 turn -- settled on just Welker. Curious to hear Jack's thoughts if taking Welker/Gordon would have been "risk-taking" or sheer lunacy.

Ahh yes, you're right. It was the 8th round. Now that you bring it up, I do recall your Welker pick clearly. I remember the pick and after the quick turn when the draft made it back to you, you and Mark huddling and discussing. I was sure you were going to double up with Gordon. I remember being surprised when you didn't and hoping he'd make it the half dozen or so picks back to me where I was prepared to take him.

Well, he did make it back and I did take him.

The 9th round is where I had been targeting him for the entire weekend after the news broke. I did manage to snag him there a couple times, but more often than not missed out by a pick or two. Each time I remember being a little disappointed.

Of greater disappointment is the short time period between the early drafts where I was targeting Gordon consistently and the late drafts referenced above, where there was that brief time everyone, including myself, passed on Gordon completely following the arbitration ruling and prior to the news of the union involvement. I wish I had been just a little more consistent and grabbed Gordon in the 20th rounds of those drafts. Well, at least I have Theo Riddick and Bryce Brown and others of that ilk that I grabbed there instead.

Going back to the topic at hand, I guess my argument isn't in regards to whether Gordon is worth the "risk", but whether he is worth an all-in bid this early in the season.... or if any player is. An 8th, 9th, or 10th round pick (or even a far earlier one) handcuffs a team far less than having no FAAB remaining for the final 12 of 13 FAAB periods in a no-trade league.

If there's a time for an all-in bid isn't early in the season the time for it? Maximize playing time, no? 93% of season left...or in Gordon's case 87% at best.

[afv]

I like reading all the opinions in this thread, because it confirms again for me that some people are not risk takers. As long as that mentality continues, I will be playing high stakes fantasy football.

If Jason Campbell delivered the ball to Gordon, do you really doubt that Brian Hoyer will do worse? Really? Even when Manziel starts to play (and he will), I will look forward to that because he is a gunslinger who will launch it to Gordon.

Make all the justifications that you want about Gordon's possible performance this year not being as good as last year's while you start James Jones or Danny Amendola as your 3rd WR. I'd rather puke.

I added Gordon to AJ Green, Marshall, Wallace, Hunter, Matthews & Hurns in the 14 team Super Auction. Why? Because 5th place sucks.

I knew somebody would argue this point. The Browns will throw much less this year and probably not force so many balls to Gordon. Gordon wouldn't even start on my OC team with Cobb, White, Edelman, and Fitzgerald. Hawkins and Benjamin seem to be upgrades from last years WR core.

Without question he would be your best WR

[afv]

Going back to the topic at hand, I guess my argument isn't in regards to whether Gordon is worth the "risk", but whether he is worth an all-in bid this early in the season.... or if any player is. An 8th, 9th, or 10th round pick (or even a far earlier one) handcuffs a team far less than having no FAAB remaining for the final 12 of 13 FAAB periods in a no-trade league.[/quote][/quote]



Good questions
- Is any player worth 99% of FAAB and future flexibly?
- Is Gordon that player given the ongoing process uncertainty?

In my opinion spending that much on any player in week 2 depends on each team's individual situation (position depth, current injury situation, bye week set-up, etc.). If the team is well-rounded with two solid QBs, a stud K and DST I could see 998 as justifiable assuming the acquired player is projected to earn round 1 value, especially this early in the season.

I don't see the relevance of FAAB bids and where he was drafted or not drafted in some leagues.
8-10 round WRs carry significantly less upside optionality. Gordon may have been drafted there a few times in early Sept but his range of payoffs is so wide that any positive development (union vote, etc.) swings his expected value to 1st-2nd round.

I have Gordon at 9.3 in an OC but I could have picked Hunter. Am I better off with Gordon + 100% of FAAB or Hunter + Gordon + 1% FAAB? I prefer the less flexible team with Gordon and Hunter.

[chriseibl]

I like reading all the opinions in this thread, because it confirms again for me that some people are not risk takers. As long as that mentality continues, I will be playing high stakes fantasy football.

If Jason Campbell delivered the ball to Gordon, do you really doubt that Brian Hoyer will do worse? Really? Even when Manziel starts to play (and he will), I will look forward to that because he is a gunslinger who will launch it to Gordon.

Make all the justifications that you want about Gordon's possible performance this year not being as good as last year's while you start James Jones or Danny Amendola as your 3rd WR. I'd rather puke.

I added Gordon to AJ Green, Marshall, Wallace, Hunter, Matthews & Hurns in the 14 team Super Auction. Why? Because 5th place sucks.

I knew somebody would argue this point. The Browns will throw much less this year and probably not force so many balls to Gordon. Gordon wouldn't even start on my OC team with Cobb, White, Edelman, and Fitzgerald. Hawkins and Benjamin seem to be upgrades from last years WR core.

Without question he would be your best WR

I disagree that there's no question. I see a legit argument for preferring Cobb or Edelman. It's not so much that Hoyer is any worse than Jason Campbell (he's definitely not) but the Browns change in offensive philosophy appears legit.

Again, despite all that I still believe Gordon is worth $980+.

[Glenneration X]

I have Gordon at 9.3 in an OC but I could have picked Hunter. Am I better off with Gordon + 100% of FAAB or Hunter + Gordon + 1% FAAB? I prefer the less flexible team with Gordon and Hunter.

The choice was not Hunter or Gordon in the 9th round of that OC if you were able to pick up Gordon in FAAB this week. The choice was Gordon or whomever you picked in the 20th round as that was the last time you passed on him originally.

I suppose my reluctance in investing 100% of my FAAB on any one player with an entire season still to be played out could be due to current circumstance with my NFBC baseball squads. For example, I am battling among the cash spots in the NFBC Diamond with serious dough on the line and am currently kicking myself for only saving $2 in FAAB for the final 2 weeks while dealing with late season injuries and/or benchings. What I'd do to have just a few more dollars at my disposal for these final couple weeks.

In football this comes into play with greater frequency. The OP left himself $4 in FAAB for the entire season, $2 of which will likely need to be used for a bye week defense and kicker. Unless he nailed the draft to such a degree that each of his starters remain starter caliber throughout the season and his depth will suffice for a dozen weeks of byes, benchings, and questionable/doubtful GTD's that don't play, and unless he gets an inordinate amount of season long injury luck typically unseen, he too may be kicking himself for not saving maybe just a few more dollars down the line.

Still, he obviously feels his team can weather the storm. Thus the 996 bid by him. You obviously feel the same. Thus the 998 bid by you. I obviously had my doubts. Thus the 698 losing bid by me. You got Gordon on your team. I didn't. Today, you're the winner. Tomorrow still remains to be played out.

[afv]

I have Gordon at 9.3 in an OC but I could have picked Hunter. Am I better off with Gordon + 100% of FAAB or Hunter + Gordon + 1% FAAB? I prefer the less flexible team with Gordon and Hunter.

The choice was not Hunter or Gordon in the 9th round of that OC if you were able to pick up Gordon in FAAB this week. The choice was Gordon or whomever you picked in the 20th round as that was the last time you passed on him originally.

I suppose my reluctance in investing 100% of my FAAB on any one player with an entire season still to be played out could be due to current circumstance with my NFBC baseball squads. For example, I am battling among the cash spots in the NFBC Diamond with serious dough on the line and am currently kicking myself for only saving $2 in FAAB for the final 2 weeks while dealing with late season injuries and/or benchings. What I'd do to have just a few more dollars at my disposal for these final couple weeks.

In football this comes into play with greater frequency. The OP left himself $4 in FAAB for the entire season, $2 of which will likely need to be used for a bye week defense and kicker. Unless he nailed the draft to such a degree that each of his starters remain starter caliber throughout the season and his depth will suffice for a dozen weeks of byes, benchings, and questionable/doubtful GTD's that don't play, and unless he gets an inordinate amount of season long injury luck typically unseen, he too may be kicking himself for not saving maybe just a few more dollars down the line.

Still, he obviously feels his team can weather the storm. Thus the 996 bid by him. You obviously feel the same. Thus the 998 bid by you. I obviously had my doubts. Thus the 698 losing bid by me. You got Gordon on your team. I didn't. Today, you're the winner. Tomorrow still remains to be played out.

Gordon wasn't available in my league as he was already rostered (I drafted him in round 9).

[Glenneration X]

Gordon wasn't available in my league as he was already rostered (I drafted him in round 9).

Gotcha, misread your previous post. By the way, I do agree that 9th round (or 8th) is perfect value!!

[Coltsfan]

Wow - this is the most active thread in a long time here that's actually discussing fantasy football - great stuff!

In looking at free agency, I sprend chunks of money all year just hoping to get one impact player that lasts more than a few weeks. I take huge aggessive shots and players who fizzle out a week later. Perhaps I don't have the insight to know who I should be bidding on but to me it's an educated guess, but still a crap shoot. Hurns went from $250 - $600 in my leagues. Quick went $150 - $400. Forsett went $300 - $850 in most leagues.

But the bottom line is that once a player has a huge game, you only have enough WW money to bid big on 2-3 of these guys during the course of the year. You can make many low $$ pickups but you have to be out in front of the "breakout" game to get those guys cheap. If I get one guy during the course of a year that's a weekly starter then I think I had a great year. Many times I'll just get bye week fill in types or flops and I can still compete with my original team.

So here is my question. If Calvin Johnson was on the waiver wire, what would be a fair bid? The number one WR in fantasy football gets dropped and you can pick him up before week 2, what is he worth?

My answer is that he is worth just about everything I have in FA money. Now Gordon averaged almost the same as Calvin last year in points per game. He carries much, much greater risk!!!!!!!!! I completely get that. But he DOES have that upside. So I'll try and sum this up.

1 - The likelihood of getting a true impact player the week after they breakout is not that good. There are very few each year and most high dollar bids do not lead to a stud player.

2 - As Chris Eibl said, you can still have effective waivers with small dollar amounts. You just gotta be out in front.

3 - He was the second leading WR last year in only 14 games........

4 - He was available in a lot of leagues.

5. He is worth a LOT more today than last weekend as the odds of him playing have gone up tremendously. Even on the last draft Saturday night he had trended up to 6.2.

6. If you were in my league and I bid on him, I either put myself at a huge advantage by having Gordon or else at a disadvantage in that I can't chase the one week wonders. I got him 100% of the leagues he was out there. And even if he doesn't play, I would have done the exact same thing doing it all over again. He's absolutely worth the risk. Put me in the shootout with Gordon as my flex - I like that a lot!

7. I will never have the insight of a David Kennedy into what guys like Gordon are going to score. But I"m working on it....lol


Wayne

[BillyWaz]

I like reading all the opinions in this thread, because it confirms again for me that some people are not risk takers. As long as that mentality continues, I will be playing high stakes fantasy football.

It is ironic, that when people do take big risks is one of the reasons that I continue to play high stakes fantasy football. Now players like Jack and Wayne can overcome that with saavy bids, but some people are not going to be able to overcome that even if Gordon is a great player this year. I like what Glenn said.......the Gordon owners are celebrating today, next week......who knows???

Almost every time, when someone spends 95% of their money on one player, it generally doesn't turn out well. This of course means the 12 team league turns into an 11 team league, as that team can't compete with injuries, bye weeks, etc.

However, I agree, that this is a totally different circumstance. We all know what Gordon is capable of accomplishing, whereas those other players are "shots in the dark". That being said, to expect the Browns to lead the league in passing attempts again is something that doesn't look like it will happen again (like Chris said due to a new philosophy of running the ball).

Gordon is a stud, but there are a LOT of hoops for him to jump through just to get back to close to the level he played at last year. I had some bids in the $600-$700 range for him (and already have him on a couple teams), so I definitely see the upside.

Gonna be interesting, but $950+ for a player who is still suspended for the season at this moment seemed a little too steep for me.