Trendsetters 2016

[boutrous11]

what's not to like about D Lewis at 6.13? Seems like a steal.

[Coltsfan]

Ok I"ll give it a shot. Here's my roster and excuses for my picks through round 6:)

1.10 Leveon Bell - the number one fantasy RB at 1.10? I was surprised as I never even thought he could possibly be there this late. There is some risk that he doesn't come back from the injury but I think it's pretty minor. I love the upside. And this guy was going top 3 last year knowing that he was missing 2 games.

2.5 Keenan Allen - He had an insane amount of targets the first 8 weeks last year. Had he kept that pace through all 16 weeks, he would have been a top 5 pick this year. I guess I don't mind taking some risks. He just seems like a great value in the 2nd. I really didn't consider anyone else for either of my top 2 picks.

3.5 Doug Baldwin - Now I considered a lot of different people here. Nobody stood out to me and with WR's flying off the board I was committed to taking a WR. I also considered Jordan Matthews here and he went 3.6. What I like about Baldwin were his targets the second half of the year. If you throw out his 14 TD's and cut it in half. Then use his targets for the second half of the season along with his career completion percentage, he would put up 268 points this coming year. Touchdown regression is a guarantee with Baldwin. I just hope he keeps getting targeted.

4.10 - Rookie 1 - I"m hoping Ezekial lands in a great spot or else Dallas takes a RB in the second. He's a 3 down talent, great blocker, and will make an immediate impact. I'm guessing he'll be going in the 3rd round after the draft.

5.5 Andrew Luck - QB's are falling and I love Luck here!!!! I took him as the 4th QB off the board and didn't even hesitate for a second. I love this pick.

6.10 - Stefon Diggs - I considered several players here and I can't mention them since they are still available when we start back up. Diggs was really breaking out this past year. My biggest concern is that his targets dropped the last few weeks and I"m not sure why. But we draft for upside and he has upside.

Overall I"m happy with my start but not in love with my start. Every player on my team is secure with their respective teams and I don't have to worry about free agency counter-fitting any of my picks. (I hope anyways.) Everything will change as the year progresses but I"m happy so far.


Wayne

[Sandman62]

How do I love my team so far? Let me don my rose-colored glasses and count the ways...

I set my KDS first choice for 12 and got it, with a plan in mind. Of course, when I later saw that no one else requested that area, mild panic set in that I was missing out on some great secret that everyone else knew about (and that may very well be the case). But with 14 WRs scoring 250+ last year and only 2 RBs eclipsing that mark, I set out targeting two WRs with that kind of potential with my first two picks. And especially in a DC format, I'm less concerned with consistency and high floors; so I aimed for upside.

1.12: WR Sammy Watkins
As I said on p. 1 of this thread, after only playing 4 of the first 6 games and averaging less than 10 PPG (similar median), he went on a tear for the last 9 games, averaging 20.1, with a 19.9 median. During that stretch, he broke 30 twice, mid-high 20s twice and over 19 twice. A full off-season working with Tyrod should only further develop their rapport. There's a reason he was the first receiver drafted in 2014 (and should've gone to my Browns! )

2.3: WR Alshon Jeffery
I was hoping for Dez or Jarvis here, but in typical top-notch draft competition fashion, they went right in front of me.
Yes, Jeffery is an injury "weighting" ( ) to happen! Apparently, he played his final college season in the 230s and the 216 he got down to when drafted was the lightest he’d been since high school. And last year he missed half the season with calf and hamstring injuries - definite concerns at the WR position. But he finished both 2013 and 2014 as WR11 and averaged 16-17 PPG the past 3 seasons; so top-10 or better weekly production is within reach and I just have to hope he can play 3/4+ of the games.

3.3: RB Doug Martin
Two out of the last four seasons, he finished in the top 3 of fantasy RBs, with two injury-riddled, underperforming seasons in between. Yes, this past year was a contract year, so who knows how motivated he'll still be after getting paid? If he stays in TB, with them getting back a healthy receiving corps, there should be plenty of opportunity in that offense. If he walks, he could hit the jackpot (for me!) and land in DAL, or he could end up in a RB purgatory like TEN. He was the RB I hoped to get here though.

4.12: WR Allen Hurns
WR18 last year, with 64/1031/10. He's unlikely to draw as much coverage attention as ARob, and has good deep threat size at 6'3" and 205. Bortles had a breakout season and along with ARob, Yeldon and Julius, this offense will continue scoring (further confirmed by Billy taking Bortles as the 7th QB off the board). His TD total could certainly regress, but he did have 7 games in a row with a score last year, so Bortles definitely looks for him. Or he could catch even less receptions AND regress in TDs and yards?!

5.3: TE Delanie Walker
Before Bill took Aaron Rodgers right in front of me, I was strongly considering him. But if not him, then I didn't mind waiting at QB - especially in a DC, where even the best QBs' points aren't used 1/4-1/2 the games. But armed with two WRs and a starting RB already, I wanted to try to gain a little advantage at another position, if possible. Walker finished 11th, 8th and 3rd among TEs the past three seasons and averaged almost 16 PPG last year, with a stellar 18.4 and four games over 20 points during the last 9 games of the season. With the top-5 TEs outscoring TE10-15 by almost 100 points, and still feeling the sting of my complete TE whiff in this league last year (Clay and ASJ! ), I wanted to lockup a solid performer at this position. Though DGB should get more looks this year, Walker will still be a young QB's BFF in the middle of the field.

6.12: QB Philip Rivers
I knew when I passed on a QB in round 5 that I probably would be in this range when it got back to me, which was fine by me. Rivers had the worst O-line in football last year, largely due to injuries. Plus he lost Allen. And he had the whole "team leaving SD" circus to deal with. And he somehow still finished as QB11, and QB12 in 2014, after his QB4 2013 finish. So I feel like I paid his fair market price, getting him as the 14th QB off the board. With Whisenhunt back in SD to help improve the run game (hopefully starting up front), a finish in the 6-10 range isn't out of the question.

The past couple years, I've tried to be more aggressive in my drafting, especially among this stellar competition. The days of littering my teams with "safe" supposed-high-floor options like Marques Colston and Miles Austin are thankfully gone. Upside is the goal and I've definitely taken some risks at WR with that goal in mind. Of course, I could be completely FOS on most of this?! But that's another fun part of this draft - it's so early that we get to enjoy fantasizing about the upside of our teams, with little to no evidence yet to prove otherwise.

Can't wait for Friday night to get going again.

[BigBlueNation]

We continued on yesterday, Rounds 7 and 8 are completed, we're halfway through Round 9.

7.01 Melvin Gordon RB SD
7.02 Breshad Perriman WR Bal
7.03 Carlos Hyde RB SF
7.04 DeSean Jackson WR Was
7.05 Ameer Abdullah RB Det
7.06 Theo Riddick RB Det
7.07 Jay Ajayi RB Mia
7.08 Rookie 2
7.09 Chris Ivory RB NYJ
7.10 Jeremy Hill RB Cin
7.11 Jonathan Stewart RB Car
7.12 Gio Bernard RB Cin
7.13 Charles Sims RB TB
7.14 Duke Johnson RB Cle


8.01 Matt Jones RB Was
8.02 Tavon Austin WR StL (LA)
8.03 Marcus Mariota QB Ten
8.04 Julius Thomas TE Jax
8.05 Matt Ryan QB Atl
8.06 Gary Barnidge TE Cle
8.07 Tyrod Taylor QB Buf
8.08 Ryan Tannehill QB Mia
8.09 Willie Snead WR NO
8.10 Matt Stafford QB Det
8.11 Rookie 3
8.12 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB NYJ
8.13 Kirk Cousins QB Was
8.14 Jay Cutler QB Chi

These two rounds were basically catching up on the necessary evil of unpredictable RBs and QB2's for most of us. I'm good with Cousins as my QB2 behind ARod, hopefully I'll just need him for one week. I'm probably higher on Perriman than most, but I like his upside in Balt. with the possibly of him becoming their WR1, but I may be a year early.

[Sabretooth]

Here is my team after two phases (13 rds) from the 14 spot....

RD 1 WR Brandon marshall
RD 2 WR Dez Bryant
RD 3 WR Jeremy Maclin
RD 4 RB DeMarco Murray
RD 5 RB Buck Allen
RD 6 QB Tony Romo
RD 7 RB Melvin Gordon
RB 8 QB Jay Cutler
RD 9 WR Steve Smith
RD 10 TE Antonio Gates
RD 11 TE Coby Fleener
RD 12 K Nick Folk
RD 13 D Jets

This draft started off WR crazy as everyone expected so I went with the flow. I felt marshall and dez were the best 2 at the 1st turn. Demaryius was a possibility too. Maclin was again the best at 3.1 in my mind. I decided before the start of the draft to start off with 3 WRs as I thought there would be a lot of RBs at the 4-5 turn and I was right. At the 4-5 It was down to 3 rbs murray,lacy, and Buck allen. Looking back I probably should have taken a QB Rodgers and Luck were there I think. Although I like murray and Allen(yes wayne he will be the starter) , it turned out I had lots of rbs choices at the 6-7 to my surprise.I went with Romo at 6:12. I've always liked Romo, just hope he is healthy, if so he should be a good pairing with Dez. I went melvin gordon at 7:1 . I like the balance of having 3 wrs and 3 rbs at this point. I read an article that said the chargers are going to design there scheme around Gordon's running style. So I'm hoping for good things. At the 8-9 turn I went with Cutler and Steve smith. I'm a lifetime fan of Steve Smith. Jay Cutler not so much! I like my TE combo if fleener resigns with the Colts. I have faith in gates. He is pro, he'll be productive again this year. And what is really to say about D and K? I am pretty happy with this team as it stands. I have my usual balance with a little upside.

[Glenneration X]

Bill, great job chronicling the draft.

Trendsetters is one of my favorite draft experiences each season. Taking place immediately following the final whistle of the Super Bowl, it's always the very 1st fantasy football draft of the year, and gives me one last taste of football before shifting gears to baseball. It utilizes a unique format that breaks the draft into multiple phases scheduled weeks apart from February through May. It offers the option to draft a rookie slot rather than any specific player, and to put a name to that rookie slot after the NFL draft. And the draft participants include some of the toughest in this hobby, from Overall Contest Champions to NFFC Hall of Famers to flat out just great players one and all.

I've participated in this league every year since 2010 and I've been lucky enough to win the league twice in that time. The following is the start of my attempt at taking down one more.

1.4 - Deandre Hopkins WR - I set my KDS straight butter hoping to get an early pick and anchor WR. I preferred the three WR's that went before me, Antonio, Julio, & OBJ due to the fact that they've performed among the elite for multiple seasons, something I can't say about my pick. However, Nuk did put up an 111/1521/11 line this season for a team with subpar QB play, a shaky running game after Foster went down, and below average options on the other side at WR and at TE to take coverage off him. I believe he proved himself this year to be elite, QB proof, offense proof, and is a safe pick here. I did briefly consider Gurley or Leveon, but Gurley's lack of involvement in the passing game and Leveon's brutal injury made those thoughts pass quickly.

2.11 - Jamaal Charles RB - I felt lucky to have decided on Nuk over the RB option's as the draft moved through the 1st 2 rounds. WR's were going early & often. However, when the draft called it a night 2 picks before my pick here, DT and Cooper were both still on the board, and I went to bed hoping to grab one of them the next day to pair with Hopkins to strengthen my foundation at WR. Unfortunately and as always is the case in this draft, when I awoke both DT and Cooper were taken with the picks just prior to mine. At this point 18 WR's had been taken, but only 5 RB's, and after the DT/Cooper picks there was a definitive tier drop at receiver in my mind. And when everyone zigs, it may be time to zag. So I shifted gears to one of the remaining elite and rare 3-down options remaining at RB, and in Charles, one that I felt had dropped too far due to the WR rush. Charles doesn't come without risk considering his injury, age, and the emergence of Ware & West. Still, it's Jamaal Charles, and in an Andy Reid RB-centric offense. There hasn't been many players who've provided the consistent elite 1st round production season after season like Charles. This pick is a bet that it returns for at least one more year.

3.11 - Michael Floyd WR - The run on WR's recommenced after my 2nd round pick and through the 3rd until my choice here, another 10 in the 13 picks since. The strong options were growing scarce. There were still three though that I felt comfortable choosing as my WR2 here, Floyd, Devante Parker, & Josh Gordon. My preference was to get 2 of the 3 between this pick & my pick in the 4th. I chose Floyd over the other 2 because I felt he had the least chance of making it through the 6 picks before I chose again. Floyd bounced back this year from a rough 2014 & his preseason hand injury to put up solid numbers. He plays for a strong offense where there may be a changing of the guard ongoing at WR1. Though his numbers aren't elite, his skill set may still be, and he passes the eye test for me that if they look his way more this year, he'll put up the numbers that'll reward this pick.

4.4 - Josh Gordon WR - Well, not the safest pick, but as they say... No guts, no glory. Gordon comes with a ceiling of best WR in the game, but a floor of suspended for life. We'll see how the season plays out. Still, it's not often you get the opportunity to grab an elite WR this late, who comes with this talent, and who's already proven he can provide top tier production no matter the offense or QB. Worth the gamble in my mind. Just stay away from the bong Josh!

5.11 - Carson Palmer QB - Trendsetters is known for its literally brutal runs. This draft has been no different. When this draft reached pick 5.2, only Cam Newton was off the board from the QB position. By the time it got to me after only 9 more picks were taken, another 7 QB's were gone. I felt lucky Palmer was still there. He's getting older, and is no Brett Favre when it comes to avoiding injury. However when healthy, he produces. He also gives me a nice hookup with Floyd.

6.4 - Lesean McCoy RB - By this point, WR, QB, and then TE were picked clean of the top tiers. There was still plenty of value at RB though. Only 17 have been taken so far through 5 plus rounds, leaving plenty of RB2's still to choose from on the board. In McCoy though, I believe a RB1 was also still available. Again, another pick that comes with risk considering McCoy's bar altercation with off duty police. I did read however that the police were at odds with the DA due to the DA's reluctance to press charges. This tells me McCoy's guilt & blame is far from certain and there's a possibility that he walks away from this, and returns as the key cog in Rex's ground & pound philosophy. We'll see.

My team through 6 rounds:

QB - Carson Palmer
RB - Jamaal Charles
RB - Lesean McCoy
WR - Deandre Hopkins
WR - Michael Floyd
WR - Josh Gordon

There may be a "bit" too much risk on this team. However, I've never been one to be called risk averse. And if all works out, and I'm able to surround this corps with solid options in the rounds that follow, I believe this team to have the talent & potential production to compete.

In a week or so, we start the 2nd phase of this year's Trendsetters, and we'll see if we can get a couple safer players then.

Phase 2 of this year's Trendsetters draft is in the books and the following is what I ended up drafting in this 7-round phase:

7.11 - Jonathan Stewart RB - With 100 WR's taken and only 1 RB in Phase 1 (exaggerating, but feels like only slightly), RB was definitely the value that fell in this draft. In Stewart, I grabbed a player that finally got his opportunity for the sole lead back role last season and did well with it, though his old bugaboo of injuries did creep into the picture late in the season. For this coming season, TD & RB receptions vulture Mike Tolbert is likely to move on, so if Stewart can stay in one piece, he could have an opportunity for more meaningful touches than any other time in his career.

8.4 - Julius Thomas TE - Being towards one end of the draft or another in a league full of heartless sharks like Trendsetters sometimes puts you in a position to make a coin flip decision on what you're willing to be hurt on. I felt a run coming. I just wasn't sure if it would be at QB2 or TE, as only one team had grabbed its backup QB at the time, while only 8 teams had drafted a TE. Which way to go to circumvent a potential run? I decided to grab a TE as I wanted a solid one and those I'd be comfortable with like Thomas were growing a bit scarce, while I figured how bad could a backup QB run really be. 9 backup QB's later before the draft got back to me, I had my answer.

9.11 - Teddy Bridgewater QB - This is the ugliness you end up with when you guess wrong. I chose Bridgewater over Alex Smith or Sam Bradford, since Bradford hadn't signed yet, and I already knew what Smith's low ceiling was while not entirely sure if Bridgewater's had been reached yet.

10.4 - Rookie # 4 - I think rookie # 4 is a decent place to choose from. If another RB outside of Elliott or Henry ends up in a great landing spot like Dallas, I'll have my choice between one of them or the top rookie WR available. Plus kicking this choice down the road a bit allows me more time to figure out my greater positional need for this roster.

11.11 - Seattle D

12.4 - Josh Brown K

13.11 - Detroit D - Yup, we got into that ugly, boring part of the draft where you're compelled to pick up Defenses & Kickers to keep up with the runs and not get shut out by the heartless sharks mentioned earlier. Well, it is fantasy football, part of the game.

My current roster:

QB - Carson Palmer
QB - Teddy Bridgewater

RB - Jamaal Charles
RB - LeSean McCoy
RB - Jonathan Stewart

WR - Deandre Hopkins
WR - Michael Floyd
WR - Josh Gordon

TE - Julius Thomas

Flex - Rookie # 4

D - Seattle
D - Detroit

K - Josh Brown

Two weeks and we're off again with Phase 3.

[RiFF]

After the end of phase 2 with 13 rounds in the book, this is my roster from the 5 slot:

QB: Drew Brees
QB: Matt Ryan

RB: Todd Gurley
RB: Mark Ingram
RB: C.J. Anderson
RB: Eddie Lacy
RB: Jeremy Hill
RB: Arian Foster

WR: Amari Cooper

K: Stephen Gostkowski
K: Blair "choke" Walsh

D: Carolina
D: Miami

Some might say having only 1 WR after phase 1 (6 rounds) was risky; they might also say still having only 1 WR after 13 rounds in a 14 team draft is either foolhardy or just plain stupid...well to those cynics I say....yeah, you're probably right. But what can I say, I'm a sucker for a bargain and the bargains in this draft have been at the RB position, imo. Although it's not necessarily unwise to zig while everyone else seems to be zagging, this contrarian strategy will now necessitate ferreting out WR value in the remaining phases of the draft.
During phase 3, entailing rounds 14-20, my intent will be too draft a 3rd Ker and Defense and to find Cooper a couple playmates at WR and to also add a couple TE's....all of this of course will be somewhat driven by value, which may mean QB's and RB's may still be on the agenda.
The one thing I've found in this draft, along with the other drafts I'm competing in this early, is I don't have a clue regarding the kicker position for 11 or 12 teams. This is a combination of poor performance by a number of kickers last year along with injuries to others. Combine that with salary cap issues for some teams who have kickers, that were either injured or ineffective last year, under contract at high non guaranteed prices.... and it raises a lot of questions at that position...at least for me. If you wait on kickers and "guess" right...great. If you wait and "guess" wrong...it's a crappy way to lose a league. Of course, it could just be me, and most already have this kicker thing figured out.

Looking forward to phase 3 and finding Amari some compadres.

[RiFF]

Here is my team after ttwo phases (13 rds) from he 14 spot....


RD 12 K Nick Folk
RD 13 D Jets

. And what is really to say about D and K? I am pretty happy with this team as it stands. I have my usual balance with a little upside.

This is a good example of my dilemma with kickers that other people may not have. And this isn't a slight on Chris or his draft decisions, he could be 100% correct in his apparent confidence in Folk, again I'm only using this as an example of my indecision surrounding kickers.
Folk was put on I/R mid season 2015 due to a quad injury. He was replaced by R Bullock who made 14/17 FGA versus the 13/16 Folk had made. Bullock also had a much higher percentage of touchbacks versus Folk. The Jets are currently in cap hell with very little space to maneuver. Folk is due in excess of $3 Million this year on a non guaranteed contract, so he could be released with no cap hit and the Jets would gain that $3 Million in additional cap space. They could then resign Bullock (or someone else) for 6-7 hundred thousand. Or, of course they could choose to pay Folk's contract or try to renegotiate it.
I have no clue how this will turn out...which again points out my quandary with the kicker position in these early drafts.

[RiFF]

12.4 - Josh Brown K


My current roster:



K - Josh Brown

.

Another example...he's currently a F/A...

[Coltsfan]

Agreed Rich!

I only see about 16 or 17 kickers that are assured jobs right now and I could be high on that number. I went 2 kickers before grabbing my second defense just because I don't want to lose the league on the wrong kicker choice. I ended up with Bailey and Prater who are both signed and seem like locks for their teams. But it could be really easy to end up without a kicker this year.


Wayne