Live Chat With Greg A. Wednesday, 11 AM EST

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed May 21, 2008 11:02 am

Originally posted by Ugly Yellow Tomatoes:
My guess is $12,000! to insure against a million payout. Thank you Contestant No. 1. We will set this aside and let you know if you've won or not.

We will use the same rules as Bob Barker's Price Is Right. You can not go over to be considered for the prize. Keep the "guesses" coming because it will be fun to debate how often the insurance company is estimating this will happen.

In fact, let's add that to the contest because I know the answer. How often does the insurance company think someone will be able to win both contests going forward? 1 in 5 years? 1 in 10 years?, 1 in 20 years? 1 in 30 years? 1 in 50 years? or 1 in 100 years? Those are the choices.

Let's have fun with this. Answer to come on Friday.

Diesel · Post by **Diesel** » Wed May 21, 2008 11:10 am

Okay, here it is...

I say it will cost you $700.00 for a million dollar policy of $1,000,000 payout for winning both contests.

I also say that the company says it's 1-100. I actually would think it's higher, but I'm only choosing what you offered above here.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Wed May 21, 2008 11:15 am

I'm going to say $8,501 Bob, and I have ZERO rhyme or reason for my guess!

P.S Remember to control the pet population and have your pet spade or neutered!

[ May 21, 2008, 05:15 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Wed May 21, 2008 11:26 am

Greg...you've mentioned that there will be a bonus prize for the individual player who has the best combined score for both Main Events. Any idea yet what that bonus amount will be? I know that you haven't exactly determined how that will be measured (total points, final ranking, etc.), but it would be nice to know what the award will be, since this is a much more realistic goal and I suspect that multiple players will be in the running for this prize right up until the final week.

No need to guess insurance rates on this one...the chance of occurrence is 100%!

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Wed May 21, 2008 11:28 am

My guess is $15,000.

Odds guess: 1 in 20 years.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Wed May 21, 2008 11:34 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Okay, I was surprised that nobody asked me how much insurance would cost to provide a $1 million bonus for winning both the NFFC and NBC Sports main events. I'll let you guess through the night and then name a winner. I won't give the exact number away because there are variations from company to company and timeframe of payments, but we'll have some fun with this.

We're still looking into all of this and we'll figure something out that makes sense. Being the only live-events operator with two different main events on the same day lends a lot of possibilities for a bonus prize. Now we have to see what makes sense. Without knowing the variables that the Insurance Company(ies) are using it is a bit of a guess to come up with a premium figure.
But if you and the Insurance Company are assuming a sell-out in both events, the next important number is how many cross-over contestants are you assuming. I suspect the premium would have some variability based on that number. Then the next question would be; does Krause have a "strong" existing insurance relationship and were were able to leverage the MBC relationship? If this is just a "one-off" and not bulit into an insurance relationship it will probably adversely affect the premium cost. Also the premium would be impacted by how successfully you were able to argue the case that ALL participants have a legitimate chance of winning each event. The smaller the built in skill deviation the better.
Having said that, I can't believe the projected premium is close to the $50,000. that, I believe, KJ was on his high side. If it were, you wouldn't be asking for people's guesstimates; you would be saying we gave it the old college try but couldn't come to terms.
My guess, not knowing any of the agreed to variables and assuming a sell-out in both events, the premium would be in the $7,500 - $10,000. range for a $1 Million bonus for a contestant winning both the NFFC Main Event and the NBC Main Event.
If the $1 Million bonus is structured as an annuity paid out over say 10 years, that would obviously lower the cost of the premium.
I'll guess $7,500.

The Insurance Company is being conservative in assuming anyone will win both events even once in 100 years.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Wed May 21, 2008 12:05 pm

Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
My guess is $15,000.

Odds guess: 1 in 20 years. Shrink, these don't match up. If the Insurance Company projected paying out $1 Million once every 20 years they would charge more than $300,000. in premiums (20x15) Investment revenue would off set some of the $700 Thousand shortfall but certainly not all of it.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed May 21, 2008 12:08 pm

Just using my gut, I'd say there must be a profit involved to even offer the million...so say that HEADLINE draws in 200 more players to either join up, or play both leagues...(that would NOT have played unless they offered the million...because that's what the headline is doing.)

Say 200 times 1300 times .20 = $52,000.

Add in my guess of 1 in 50 years it will be "paid out." (even though I feel it will never be paid out)

My guess would have to be be less than $20,000.00 per season to insure.

~Lance

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Wed May 21, 2008 12:08 pm

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
P.S Remember to control the pet population and have your pet spade or neutered!

You trying to upset SNAKE again!!

RI WORKHORSE · Post by **RI WORKHORSE** » Wed May 21, 2008 12:17 pm

$1,100 for 1 in 50 years.