What's different in 2011?

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:00 pm

I'm right with you Paul.

Although in my brief dealing with baseball, I will say I did enjoy the "daily" fix, but if you think football FAAB is a job (and I totally agree it can be), baseball is about 5x the work.

Like football, I love the strategy, draft prep, crunching stats, etc. but that is where it ends for me when it comes to baseball.

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:13 pm

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
...baseball is about 5x the work.

Then forget it!

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sat Nov 05, 2011 3:29 pm

Personally, my concern is that I can burn out in Fantasy if I'm not careful. By Week 10 of the NFL season, I can't wait for Free Agency to end because I'm tired of it all. Absolutely love Sundays and the playoffs, but it can become a grind during the week, especially towards the end.

I can't imagine what this situation would be like for baseball, a game that is way too slow during a season that is way too long.

That's just me, though. I can see how someone with much more passion for baseball would love every second of it. I think it really depends upon how many teams you have....

Some guys here have 8 to 10 fantasy football teams. Some surely have more than that.

Yeah, with 10 football teams, faab gets old really fast.

Say you only have half that number in baseball. It makes faab much more manageable. Although some guys have over 10 baseball teams ... yuck!

At least there are DC leagues in both!

[ November 05, 2011, 09:32 PM: Message edited by: rkulaski ]

Eddiejag · Post by **Eddiejag** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 1:11 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
I agree with that James. Even high stakes card players don't win ALL the time. And they probably get just as annoyed when some young punk sucks out on them with inferior hands as we do getting clobbered by NFL nobodies while our drafted "studs" sh.t the bed!

We're pretty much out of the running already in 6 of 9 NFFC leagues. Thankfully, one of the 3 we still have a shot in is at least a Super - so there's still a chance to come out ahead this year, albeit requiring some good luck against some very good players.

This probably would fit better in Tom's weekly thread, but here's just a sample from this past week on how downright unpredictable fantasy football has become, from a weekly blog I do for a group of friends who like to follow our high stakes adventures.

The Scale Has Tilted From Skill To Luck In This Hobby

I thought I’d take a quick look at this week’s ridiculous random scoring, as IMO, fantasy football the past couple years seems to be less about good research, good drafts, well-justified lineup decisions, etc. and more about who gets luckiest with their mid-round picks and waiver wire acquisitions. We don’t even own most of these players, but still feel for their owners’ likely frustration. All week long, the media hypes up the great matchups some players have, only to disappoint anyway.

We doubt we’ll continue with high-stakes leagues next year, given that the luck factor seems to now be about on par with buying lottery tickets.

Right now, we’re heavily leaning towards just doing local leagues again.

Some sickening week 8 scoring observations
WR
•    Nobodies who scored like studs: Victor Cruz (who nearly doubled Nicks’ day, even though Nicks wasn’t injured until late in the 4th quarter), and other “household names” like Antonio Brown, Laurent Robinson, Jonathan Baldwin and Eric Decker all scored 19-23 points. Super-nobodies, Titus Young and Ben Obomanu, even had 16.6 and 14.7, respectively.
•    Studs who scored like nobodies: Bowe, Welker, Marshall, Colston and VJax were all between 7.9-10; DeSean, Dez, Austin and Mike Thomas scored just 5.4-6.1!
RB
•    The Good: Despite 7 true top RBs delivering 19-33 points, someone named Curtis Brinkley (formerly married to Billy Joel? ?) scored 16.2 and season-starting backups Jackie Battle, Maurice Morris, Javon Ringer and Mewelde Moore scored around 11.5-13. Even Donald Brown, Bernard Scott, Chris Ogbannaya, Knowshon Moreno, Kevin Faulk, Marshawn Lynch and Steve Slaton all had 6.7-9.9!
•    The Bad: But early-round draftees like Bradshaw and Mendenhall barely broke 11 and 10. DeMarco Murray, coming off a 250+ yard rushing performance, couldn’t break 8 vs. the worst run D in the league. Chris Johnson failed to reach 7.
•    The Ugly: Ryan Torain couldn’t score 3 despite being expected to carry the load now with Hightower out for the season. Jacobs couldn’t break 2 in his first week back from injury. Green-Ellis couldn’t break 1, yielding to Kevin Faulk, who just came off the PUP list. And Monterio Hardesty, despite getting the whole load to himself with Hillis inactive, also couldn’t break 1 stinkin’ point (due to injury)! Wow!
QB
•    Youth: McCoy, Tebow, Dalton, Painter and Ponder – who almost all came off the waiver wire and combined barely have a season’s experience – all scored more (18-19 points) than Rivers, Brees and Romo’s pathetic 16-17! [Yes, that’s also just 6-7 points more than rookie cellar-dweller Blaine Gabbert!]
•    Experience: Brady (21.9), coming off a bye, was unexpectedly, though not shockingly, outscored by Schaub and Fitzpatrick (22-23). Cam, Stafford, Vick, Ben and Eli – almost all drafted after Brady – blew him away, scoring 29-36 each!
TE
•    One man’s trash is another’s treasure: Just about the time most owners had dropped Brent Celek and Dallas Clark, they scored 22.4 and 13.7, respectively. Waiver wire wonder, Scott Chandler, and TE2s Fred Davis and Greg Olsen also scored 17+. Even Heath Miller scored 15+!
•       This year’s best TE though, Jimmy Graham, failed to break 8 points, and perennial studs, Jason Witten didn’t hit 7 and Vernon Davis didn’t score 6, despite facing STL, PHI and CLE, who are better known for their ability to cover wide receivers than TEs.
DST
•       I realize that some top-drafted DSTs were on bye (GB, NYJ, ATL, CHI), but still... 3 of the top 14 NFFC overall scorers this week were DSTs who scored 24-29 points each – and not even ones that were expected/drafted to be reliable starters (DET, BUF, CIN)! The next 2 best DSTs were STL and TEN, both at 16.
•       But BAL only scored 8, PIT and NE 7 and DAL 4.
•       Can we please remove DSTs (and Ks) from fantasy football? They essentially equate to wildcards in poker, which randomly allow poor hands to prevail when they shouldn’t.
K
•       Nothing too extreme here, as 16 points was the top kicker score, but Novak, Lindell, Cundiff, Succop, Bironas, Nugent, Suisham, Hanson, Feely, and Henery all broke 10.
•       A couple of this year’s top kickers though were awful: Bailey 1, Kasay 3. Nice stuff Sandman would love to see this weekly somewhere. thanks.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 1:39 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:

I thought I’d take a quick look at this week’s ridiculous random scoring, as IMO, fantasy football the past couple years seems to be less about good research, good drafts, well-justified lineup decisions, etc. and more about who gets luckiest with their mid-round picks and waiver wire acquisitions.
That's good work Mike and I can appreciate your frustration. As I said earlier, this really has become a week-to-week proposition in fantasy football and it's more and more difficult to find players you can consistently depend on. That either makes the game more frustrating or challenging or possibly both (that's how I look at it).

Couple points I disagree with you on:

1. While I understand your primary point about guys blowing up unexpectedly, I wouldn't include Fred Davis and Greg Olsen in the TE group. Davis has been a stud this season so you should be expecting him to produce. Olsen has also been a quality starter so when he does well it shouldn't come as a surprise.

2. I disagree that defenses and kickers should be removed. Granted, it's called fantasy football for a reason but defense, special teams and kickers all play integral roles with football so I don't believe they should be removed. Kickers absolutely shouldn't be because they literally account for points so I believe all scoring needs to be accounted for in fantasy football. The problem with defenses is there are so few good ones this season in my opinion so it's often difficult (if not impossible) to predict where the scoring is going to come from.

The thing about the "scrubs" who score big-time points is they almost always were available to everyone in the league at some point, either on Draft Day or the Waiver Wire. Not everyone has a shot at Aaron Rodgers or Arian Foster, but I guarantee you everyone in your league had a shot at Cam Newton and Fred Jackson. Did the owners who got them get a little lucky? Absolutely. Both of those players have wildly outproduced anyone's realistic expectations. But the point is everyone had a shot at those guys at some point.

I look at Fred Jackson, for example, and I see a guy I liked and have always liked but I'm mad at myself for not liking him more. If I had, I would've gotten the RB steal and not someone else. So while the owner who got him got a little lucky I blame myself for not liking Jackson more than I did. If I had, I would've been that owner.

I don't think there are any perfect solutions here. Fantasy football has always had more built-in frustration in my opinion than fantasy baseball due to the fact the season is shorter and there is only one game per week. So the chances to overcome a bad game are considerably more difficult. But for me, as frustrating as this game can be I still enjoy the weekly challenge and the thrill of watching games on Sundays (and Mondays and now Thursdays starting next week).

[ November 06, 2011, 07:41 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 1:58 am

I lumped Olsen and Davis in simply because at draft time, they were considered TE2s, unlike many other expected-"safer" TE1s like the other Davis, Daniels, etc..

And while I realize that so many "scrubs" have blown up and that we all had a shot at them, I guess I just liked it better when those mid-late round picks weren't so handily trouncing earlier picks every week. I don't mind a few breakout players coming late in drafts - heck, 2 years ago we hit with Vernon and SSmith/NYG and that certainly helped us win our Classic (albeit along with Wayne, Rodgers, etc.). But it just seems to me like the balance has shifted. Like you said, there are so many early draftees on whom we can't depend. I understand that those top players will have some bad games. But when they're routinely being outplayed by a lot of later round draftees, well then yes, we ALL have a chance to get lucky. But I also understand that in many cases, that good luck that we get off the wire is simply to offset the BAD luck of injuries, busts, etc..

To Renman's point about not wanting everyone to just draft and perform according to ADP or this game would be boring... I always enjoyed the challenge of maybe reaching a round or two early in the first 5-6 rounds for players we liked (i.e. this year we took Austin in round 1 or 2 of 4 leagues). But whether he ends up a top 5 or just in the top 15, therein lies enough challenge for me. But when he gets outscored almost every week by much later picks or waiver wire wonders, it can really diminish the effort and strategy of whomever we draft in the first few rounds. IOW, it just really doesn't matter as much as it used to.

One thing I'm mighty thankful for though... that the NFFC rewards total POINTS leaders a bit more than H2H! My son is by far tops in points in his local league with friends, yet next to last or so in record (and they DON'T let any teams into playoffs via points). So in the NFFC, at least we can still cling to the hope that over these last 5 regular season games, our studs can still close the gap. We shall see.

[ November 06, 2011, 08:00 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 2:04 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
I lumped Olsen and Davis in simply because at draft time, they were considered TE2s, unlike many other expected-"safer" TE1s like the other Davis, Daniels, etc..While that's true we're in Week 9 now, ADP is meaningless. Davis has been a TE stud all season. Olsen has been darn good all season too. At this point, it's not a surprise when either of them goes off. Scott Chandler catching two passes and both of them going for touchdowns? Now there's a good reason for frustration.

Again, we're in complete agreement that more "scrubs" seem to blow up in recent seasons than ever before. And yeah, it's frustrating when you have Larry Fitzgerald, Miles Austin or Vincent Jackson and you see guys like Eric Decker, Laurent Robinson and Victor Cruz blow them out of the water in terms of production.

I don't deny the frustration because I feel it too. We all do. For me, the way I combat it is to be better at identifying who those players could be either in terms of sleeper potential on Draft Day or working the Waiver Wire each week. That's one of the challenging parts of this game that I love. Does it drive me nuts if I guess wrong sometimes? Hell yes. But I still love the challenge. That's what drives me each season.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 2:59 am

Good point Tom on Davis/Olsen. Still frustrating, as an owner of many TEs drafted earlier this year.

Upon closer inspection though, YTD, many of the top WRs in average PPG have been those we expected. Yes, Green, Cruz, Decker, Nate Washington, are a few surprises, but most of the first page of WRs in the Stats page are well-known early draftees. So maybe it's just the extreme week-to-week volatility that is so painful? It makes you lose a lot of H2H games. But again, thankfully the NFFC rewards overall YTD points.

Here's hoping that the next 5 weeks allow the draft day studs to catch up to the newb nobodies!

[ November 06, 2011, 09:04 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 3:03 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
I lumped Olsen and Davis in simply because at draft time, they were considered TE2s, unlike many other expected-"safer" TE1s like the other Davis, Daniels, etc..

And while I realize that so many "scrubs" have blown up and that we all had a shot at them, I guess I just liked it better when those mid-late round picks weren't so handily trouncing earlier picks every week. I don't mind a few breakout players coming late in drafts - heck, 2 years ago we hit with Vernon and SSmith/NYG and that certainly helped us win our Classic (albeit along with Wayne, Rodgers, etc.). But it just seems to me like the balance has shifted. Like you said, there are so many early draftees on whom we can't depend. I understand that those top players will have some bad games. But when they're routinely being outplayed by a lot of later round draftees, well then yes, we ALL have a chance to get lucky. But I also understand that in many cases, that good luck that we get off the wire is simply to offset the BAD luck of injuries, busts, etc..

To Renman's point about not wanting everyone to just draft and perform according to ADP or this game would be boring... I always enjoyed the challenge of maybe reaching a round or two early in the first 5-6 rounds for players we liked (i.e. this year we took Austin in round 1 or 2 of 4 leagues). But whether he ends up a top 5 or just in the top 15, therein lies enough challenge for me. But when he gets outscored almost every week by much later picks or waiver wire wonders, it can really diminish the effort and strategy of whomever we draft in the first few rounds. IOW, it just really doesn't matter as much as it used to.

One thing I'm mighty thankful for though... that the NFFC rewards total POINTS leaders a bit more than H2H! My son is by far tops in points in his local league with friends, yet next to last or so in record (and they DON'T let any teams into playoffs via points). So in the NFFC, at least we can still cling to the hope that over these last 5 regular season games, our studs can still close the gap. We shall see. Mike,

I understand your frustration, but you gotta look at all the things that work out for YOU sometimes too.

Didn't you have Peyton Hillis last year all over the place? I mean don't you think others thought that you just got lucky? (and he produced virtually EVERY week). I'm sure you don't feel you got lucky, because you EXPECTED that to happen, but I am sure other did.

As for Fred Davis, the Redskins have ALWAYS thrown to the TE (mainly because their WR's suck!), and it was very evident that Cooley was hurt early in the year, so I think the people who picked him up deserve credit.

Miles Austin....was he not questionable in week one with a hammy? Weren't Dez and Felix supposed to be a bigger part of the offense? (and don't forget 82).

You are a very good player Mike, but what I am getting at is what you consider "luck" is not always the case.

That being said, I am frustrated as well with everything that has gone on, but I try my best to look at what I did wrong first. Luck is going to continue be a good chunk of this game, and it may lean more and more towards that each year. Like Tom said, the challenge is what makes this fun (even though it can drive you nuts sometimes

).

Good luck today!

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Sun Nov 06, 2011 3:14 am

We only had Hillis in our Classic and one Online last year, and we certainly knew we got lucky with him (though not lucky enough to get into the Classic playoffs at 10-3, 4th in points and missing by less than 8 points!). That's why I admitted earlier that we got lucky on Vernon and SSmith 2 years ago. I do realize it works FOR us now and then too. But thanks for keeping me honest Billy.

I know I'm not doing a very good job of this, but my point is not to diminish the mid-late round picks. There IS some skill and some luck in those. The same way I referenced maybe reaching a round or two in the early rounds, props go to those who reach in the mid rounds too and hit. My point is that I just wish that the early draftees were producing as regularly as some of those later breakout players on a weekly basis. I just prefer the balance of success be based a tad more on the draft and a bit less on the waiver wire and once injuries kick in. (though we're not doing very well in our 2 DCs either, so I probably should be careful what I wish for ).

But heck, injuries DO help US too, as we're starting Murray, MBush, Pierre, and even Ogbannaya this week across our 7 leagues. Of course, that doesn't mean they won't all lay 5-pt stinkers either. But then, I shouldn't EXPECT them to outperform earlier draft picks either, if I'm going to whine about it when our opponents get so lucky!

Good luck to you and everyone else this week too Billy (well, not so much to our opponents though, if I'm being honest ).

[ November 06, 2011, 09:22 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]