Originally posted by GK:
...speaking of guts and glory do I wait on and (possibly) play Shiancoe who is now suddenly listed as Questionable and plays on Sunday night on my Classic team (I have the h2h wrapped up and am 2nd in points - 28 behind - so although I'll still make the playoffs I wanted to avoid a 3 week league playoff for the extra $2,500 in loot so EVERY point counts here) or do I go with Bo Scaife who I obviously consider the inferior option?...GK For what it is worth, this is the most recent report from KFFL for today:
Minnesota Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe (ribs) was limited in practice Friday, Dec. 4. He is listed as questionable for Week 13, but he is expected to play.
Am I Crazy?
Am I Crazy?
Originally posted by FF Addict:
quote:Originally posted by GK:
...speaking of guts and glory do I wait on and (possibly) play Shiancoe who is now suddenly listed as Questionable and plays on Sunday night on my Classic team (I have the h2h wrapped up and am 2nd in points - 28 behind - so although I'll still make the playoffs I wanted to avoid a 3 week league playoff for the extra $2,500 in loot so EVERY point counts here) or do I go with Bo Scaife who I obviously consider the inferior option?...GK For what it is worth, this is the most recent report from KFFL for today:
Minnesota Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe (ribs) was limited in practice Friday, Dec. 4. He is listed as questionable for Week 13, but he is expected to play. [/QUOTE]He'll play ... not like those ***** Pittsburgh players like Roethlisberger ... Right Billy!
quote:Originally posted by GK:
...speaking of guts and glory do I wait on and (possibly) play Shiancoe who is now suddenly listed as Questionable and plays on Sunday night on my Classic team (I have the h2h wrapped up and am 2nd in points - 28 behind - so although I'll still make the playoffs I wanted to avoid a 3 week league playoff for the extra $2,500 in loot so EVERY point counts here) or do I go with Bo Scaife who I obviously consider the inferior option?...GK For what it is worth, this is the most recent report from KFFL for today:
Minnesota Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe (ribs) was limited in practice Friday, Dec. 4. He is listed as questionable for Week 13, but he is expected to play. [/QUOTE]He'll play ... not like those ***** Pittsburgh players like Roethlisberger ... Right Billy!
Hakuna Matata!
Am I Crazy?
Originally posted by GK:
..."expected", "should", yep they're nice words to hear alright but what if I wait on him and he does NOT play than that's a BIG FAT ZERO at the TE position for me with what I previously mentioned, with alot at stake here...honestly, what would YOU (anyone outh there listening) do -wait on Shiancoe for the guts and glory or play Scaife and hold your nostrils pinched with your fingers?...thanks much...GK Glenn,
I dont like Shiancos matchup anyway,if it was me with that choice,i am playing Scaife with no regrets.
Good luck this week.
..."expected", "should", yep they're nice words to hear alright but what if I wait on him and he does NOT play than that's a BIG FAT ZERO at the TE position for me with what I previously mentioned, with alot at stake here...honestly, what would YOU (anyone outh there listening) do -wait on Shiancoe for the guts and glory or play Scaife and hold your nostrils pinched with your fingers?...thanks much...GK Glenn,
I dont like Shiancos matchup anyway,if it was me with that choice,i am playing Scaife with no regrets.
Good luck this week.
Am I Crazy?
How about this rationale, Glenn? I know the sampling sizes are small for drawing conclusions, but heck, it's all we have to go on this year.
If you take the conservative approach and play Scaife, he has about a 50% chance of scoring you 5 points and 50% chance of 9.5. Those are the averages of his best and worst 4 games.
Shiancoe, the more aggressive approach, has a 55% chance of scoring 6.5 and 45% chance of 17 (average of his best 5 and worst 6 games).
So, if Scaife could be a late scratch, then his downside is 0. Is that really that much worse than a 50% chance of a 5? Though the NFL "questionable" tag is supposed to mean "50%", we all know they play games w/ that. Oftentimes, "questionable" players probably play closer to 75% of the time, I'll bet.
Now compare that to the UPside of Shiancoe. He has a 45% chance of nearly DOUBLING Scaife's output.
The only other thing I'd consider is matchups. Both have the potential to be in SHOOTOUT games!
In summary, what do you think the chances are that Scaife goes off (15 points, tops?) AND Shiancoe is scratched (0)? Cuz that's your WORST scenario (-15). But if you think Scaife could have another ho-hum game (5 points) AND Shiancoe goes off (20), then you'd be +15. The question IS... which do you think is more likely? If you think the latter scenario is a LOT more likely, then are you willing to take the risk for that reward?
I'd roll w/ Shiancoe.
Good luck with your decision.
[ December 04, 2009, 07:42 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
If you take the conservative approach and play Scaife, he has about a 50% chance of scoring you 5 points and 50% chance of 9.5. Those are the averages of his best and worst 4 games.
Shiancoe, the more aggressive approach, has a 55% chance of scoring 6.5 and 45% chance of 17 (average of his best 5 and worst 6 games).
So, if Scaife could be a late scratch, then his downside is 0. Is that really that much worse than a 50% chance of a 5? Though the NFL "questionable" tag is supposed to mean "50%", we all know they play games w/ that. Oftentimes, "questionable" players probably play closer to 75% of the time, I'll bet.
Now compare that to the UPside of Shiancoe. He has a 45% chance of nearly DOUBLING Scaife's output.
The only other thing I'd consider is matchups. Both have the potential to be in SHOOTOUT games!
In summary, what do you think the chances are that Scaife goes off (15 points, tops?) AND Shiancoe is scratched (0)? Cuz that's your WORST scenario (-15). But if you think Scaife could have another ho-hum game (5 points) AND Shiancoe goes off (20), then you'd be +15. The question IS... which do you think is more likely? If you think the latter scenario is a LOT more likely, then are you willing to take the risk for that reward?
I'd roll w/ Shiancoe.
Good luck with your decision.
[ December 04, 2009, 07:42 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
Am I Crazy?
Originally posted by GK:
... so your data above is a bit skewed since Collins had been the QB for the first half of the season.Not really. Scaife has averaged 6.8 pts/gm w/ VY as the starter: 4, 3.6, 7.8 and 11.8.
You say you need 28 points to catch point leader and you've already locked up H2H. If you think his next score will follow the progression and be 15-20, then give Scaife a shot. If you think Schiancoe will play, then do you still believe Schiancoe has the greater upside?
[ December 04, 2009, 08:22 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
... so your data above is a bit skewed since Collins had been the QB for the first half of the season.Not really. Scaife has averaged 6.8 pts/gm w/ VY as the starter: 4, 3.6, 7.8 and 11.8.
You say you need 28 points to catch point leader and you've already locked up H2H. If you think his next score will follow the progression and be 15-20, then give Scaife a shot. If you think Schiancoe will play, then do you still believe Schiancoe has the greater upside?
[ December 04, 2009, 08:22 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
Am I Crazy?
True. And if Schiancoe outscores Scaife by 15, that could cost you too. It ain't easy, for sure.