And then we have fantasy football

[JETS SB]

I used to play in many online leagues, CBS, ESPN, NFL.com, and a family league. I can honestly say that I won over 25% of those leagues over a period of 20 years. In the NFFC, I have won about 5% of the time. So, that being said, if I am losing more in the NFFC, I attribute it to better competition, not "bad luck". My point is, there is definitely a good level of skill involved in fantasy football... not as much as fantasy baseball, in my opinion, but nowhere near the amount of luck involved in blackjack.

[thelunger]

I was drafting this reply while Don Draper was replying too evidently, and I have the same questions he does.

I know personally I've had bouts of success, but certainly wouldn't claim any kind of consistency. And I'm still in the running in about 1/3 of my 15 leagues; so please understand that this isn't a sour grapes issue.

With no disrespect intended toward anyone, I'm curious how we define "consistently competitive and successful".

A: Overall earnings – and net or gross?
To my knowledge, only gross earnings are posted. And even if net earnings were published, as challenging and commendable an accomplishment it is to cash substantially in the big national events, or in a Diamond, Ultimate or Super league, doing so just a small portion of the time can certainly keep one in the positive for a long time, despite how many other leagues they were in, but didn't cash.

B: Playoff appearances? i rate my success over the years by the amount of money i have paid out for fantasy purposes compared to what i have brought in.(at least thats how i justify it to my wife)lol
At least that's easily identified for us in the overall standings. But how many entries did they have? IOW, what percentage of their teams actually made the playoffs? And what about all the owners who finished one or two places outside of the playoffs, often missing by just a few points even, as well as often to head-to-head winners who scored substantially fewer points?

C: Average total points scored?
At least this is the overall sum of one's efforts and isn't based upon standings or money earned. And I certainly wouldn't argue against the NFFC's lifetime points leader. Billy IS an excellent player.

Top Weekly Scoring Average, 2004-11
• Billy Wasosky, Richmond, VA, 127.49 (Lifetime Standings Leader)
http://nffc.stats.com/football/nffc/records.asp

That said, total points can be influenced by the caliber of players in leagues. We all know that all it takes is a couple "lesser prepared/involved" owners in a league for that league's top players to outscore another league's top players where the caliber/interest/effort was consistent for all owners. Though, over enough of a sampling size, the cream likely rises to the top, as in Billy's case.

I wouldn't mind seeing a deeper version of this list, maybe top-50 or something similar, perhaps separating into a few different categories even:
• Lifetime
• Past 3 (or 5) years
• Past 10, 25, 50 or 100 league entries. To me, this category could provide the most accurate picture, as the other two categories don't account for the fact that some players only enter one league per year, while others are in 150 and everywhere in between.

D: Average league scoring rank?
Though we don't cash for 3rd or 4th place in 12-team leagues (or 4th/5th in 14-teams), I know I personally feel better when I know that my team was near the top in scoring than when I finish in the bottom of a league. But without cashing, these are no more considered "successful" by our peers than having come in last place - because no one know else in the NFFC knows about it beyond the members of each league.

One could argue that, over time, a player who came in 3rd place in points 50 times could be considered more "consistently competitive and successful" than someone who maybe came in 1st or 2nd once (and cashed), but also came in last place 49 times. Hmmm... this has tones of the whole "Who’s the better QB - Dan Marino or Trent Dilfer?" debate, based on the value of Super Bowl wins.

So what do you think? What most accurately reflects “consistently competitive and successful”? And how many players like this do we have and who are they? Some of this data might very well end up in the NFFC's Hall of Fame at some point. But what about before there is the 10 years of data that the HoF will be based upon? And what about players who may have had quite a bit of success long before completing 10 years? I have a hunch who some of them will be just because I know some of the top players I've competed against, as well as the names I keep seeing in the standings each year. But I also don't know how many other leagues they're in and their "consistency".

Interesting topic.

[thelunger]

although this is my first year in the nffc i rate my fantasy success over the years in monies spent compared to monies brought in.(at least thats how i justify it all to the wife)lol

[DonnyG.]

In good seasons, bad, and everything in-between, fantasy football has, is, and always will be, EDUCATED GUESSING at it's best. 60% skill 40% luck. MAYBE 65% 35% at BEST. Simply curious but what would anyone here consider the % of skill/luck at Texas Holdem to be?

[Coltsfan]

Here is kind of how I look at a 12 team league.

3 teams will be poorly drafted and have very little chance of winning the league.

3 additional teams will be decimated by injuries to the point that they really can't recover.

The other 6 teams will compete for the title.

I don't feel like I had any poorly drafted teams this year but I'm probably done in 2 of my 9 teams where I start a lineup and either leading or competitive in the other 7. The only league that I really can't win is my prime time where I lost 5 of my top 7 picks to injuries this year for at least a game or two. So for me it feels like a pretty typical year this year. Since the entry fees in these leagues range from $350 - $1,800 it all depends on which ones I end up winning as to how I will do financially. The last 2 years I did well in some of the higher dollar leagues so they ended up as being very good years.

But anyways, assuming you're not one of the 3 teams that have very little chance and you don't just flat out get decimated by injuries, then it does take some luck to win a league. We hear the bad luck stories all of the time on these boards but very few players will own up to have good luck. (And yes luck ALWAYS balances itself out.) I guess my goal is to be competitive in 75 % of my leagues and then over time I'll win my fair share of those leagues.


Wayne

[got heeem]

Imo you make a lot of your own luck good or bad .You make the picks on draft day . Was it luck to wait on qb then get a RG3 or DALTON late . Was it bad luck to pick VICK or STAFFORD to early . This is football injurys are going to happen we know this (BEFORE ) we draft . We can always backup any top pick good players do others don't .Is it luck to have picked up A MORRIS early or skill .There is some luck but not as much as i have read above .I spend hours going over match ups some work out some don't . In the end it's football got to love the action .

[BLACKHAND]

is it luck if matt ryan goes down and you have julio or roddy or gonzo. is it luck if your OL gets injury after injury and your rb finds there are not any holes to run thru. all these things can take a toll on your team while still drafting well. on the other side of the coin you have alot of the same guys doing very well year after year. are they born under a lucky star or are they just better than the rest of us ? most likely a little of both. 60 / 40 skill vs luck for sure.

[chriseibl]

95% skill over the long term (say 10 years), in any given year it's more of a 50/50 split. if you're good at this you are more likely than not to make money over the long run. i'll leave the 5% luck to represent the big money jackpots where you're competing against 100s of others. (though those people take a combination of luck and skill to get themselves in that position).

in a given year i say it's more like how wayne describes. I usually see 3-4 teams with no chance and amongst the remaining teams you hope yours isn't decimated by injury. though even within those 8-10 competitive teams skill still plays a role. lots of people have similar rankings so i think the two best traits that the best fantasy owners exhibit are the ability to successfully tailor those rankings to a specific scoring system and the ability to evaluate player situations as being more relevant than past performance. now, those evaluations won't always work out in the short term over a year or two but i think they do in the long run.

and while information is more easily accessible than ever, most people here would probably agree that they would absolutely love to play in leagues comprised of players relying on mainstream rankings like espn's.

[Don Draper]

95% skill over the long term (say 10 years), in any given year it's more of a 50/50 split. if you're good at this you are more likely than not to make money over the long run. i'll leave the 5% luck to represent the big money jackpots where you're competing against 100s of others. (though those people take a combination of luck and skill to get themselves in that position).

In the 9 years the NFFC Classic has existed; please list the names of the owners who have finished:
A. In the Top 5 overall more than once?
B. In the Top 10 overall more than once?

if skill is 95% over the long-term, one would think the lists above would be populated with a good number of owners.

[Greg Ambrosius]

95% skill over the long term (say 10 years), in any given year it's more of a 50/50 split. if you're good at this you are more likely than not to make money over the long run. i'll leave the 5% luck to represent the big money jackpots where you're competing against 100s of others. (though those people take a combination of luck and skill to get themselves in that position).

In the 9 years the NFFC Classic has existed; please list the names of the owners who have finished:
A. In the Top 5 overall more than once?
B. In the Top 10 overall more than once?

if skill is 95% over the long-term, one would think the lists above would be populated with a good number of owners.

Well, now you've challenged me to find this out!! Let's look at the Classic through 9 years and find this out:

2004 NFFC Classic Championship Round Top 8:
1. Mark Srebro/Jason Emma
2. Barry Harcus
3. Glenn Schroter
4. Don Thompson
5. Eric Lundquist
6. Chris Cannataro
7. Mike Ward
8. Dave Cushard

2005 NFFC Classic Championship Round Top 8:
1. Josh Ferenc
2. Scott Stauffer
3. John Bayley
4. Ken Magner
5. Scott Gunaca
6. Kenrol Paynter
7. Kyle Pope
8. Joseph Treffiletti

2006 NFFC Classic Championship Round Top 10:
1. Teds Cracked Head NFFC Chicago League 1 Rob Benetti 646.3
2. .......FISHER ....... NFFC New York League 9 David Lichtman 621.12
Ryan Fisher
David Fisher
3. Incredible Hulking Us NFFC New York League 8 Michael Edelman 615.39
Lewandowski
4. TexasCrew NFFC Las Vegas League 6 Lewis Lightfoot 597.54
5. Fleetwood Macks NFFC New York League 6 James Mack 593.75
6. EdCouch New Potatoes NFFC New York League 3 Edward Killmer 579.85
7. Billsville Trojans NFFC Chicago League 2 Ronald Eltanal 578.71
8. Wonder Boy and Ball Dude NFFC Las Vegas League 1 Steve Pletkin 577.66
9. CANADIAN BEAVERS NFFC Las Vegas League 7 Jason Steeves 572.2
10. curbed enthusiasm NFFC Chicago League 1 Andy Langwald 554.25

2007 NFFC Classic Championship Round Top 10:
1. Go Gettas Ryan Welch 621.61
Jeremy Jurewicz
2. The Ambiguously Gay Duo Mike Newbert 607.3
3. Silver Knuckle Travis Loontjer 604.42
4. Generation Swine Brent Grooms 598.25
5. Armchair Champs Tom Spinoso 588.11
6. Pass Interference Michael Makula 582.51
7. CCs Desperados Shawn Childs 576.46
8. TOPDOGG Troy Young 575.34
9. TEXAS FLOOD Matthew Bayley 572.44
10. Nemesis Stan McLaren 570.35
Kenrol Paynter

2008 Classic Championship Round Top 10:
1. RECOVERY BOYS TOM YATES 619.03
2. nick jonas Scott Newman 616.09
3. Riverdog Todd Ullman 612.27
4. Mutillating Squirrels Dan Mitlof 610.89
5. Sweetness Jean-Paul Hanna 602.94
6. I'mbackandI'mbad Jeff Kratz 598.63
7. Team Canada TJ Mailloux 595.58
8. FROSTY Matthew Bayley 592.06
9. Blue Falcons Dominic Cristelli 591.47
10. Leroy's Aces Dave Gerczak 589.58

2009 NFFC Classic Championship Round Top 10:
1. 1 800 GO DEEP Steve Luzzi 645.04
2. TOPPDOG Troy Young 641.84
3. Kahuna Calvin Suer 636.77
4. DIESEL Mitko Koburov 629.8
5. BFDFANTASYfootball com Louis Tranquilli 628.18
6. Amanda Will Robertson 612.95
7. Master Chief William DelPilar 610.65
8. Fantasy Pimps Jason Esteybar 609.2
9. Cardboys Josh Blumenreich 606.6
10. E A T M L Edward Klein 602.67

2010 NFFC Classic Championship Round Top 10:
1. Tom Carbone
2. Ante Meich
3. Duane Merchant
4. Darren Fecich
5. Brian Owens
6. KJ Duke
7. Chad Schroeder
8. Bill Hare

2011 Classic Championship Round Top 10:
1. I'm ALL IN Michael Treffiletti 653.1
2. SD Super Chargers George Melbrod 625.83
3. Potato of Injustice Joseph Treffiletti 623.46
4. MIAMI CANES 4 Frank Heron 619
5. Team Welp Michael Welp 607.78
6. For Love Of The Game 3 Jared Danielsen 602.85
7. 5PtPalmExplodingHeartTech Tyson Siegele 602.8
8. Roughriders James Bradtke 599.79
9. RECOVERY BOYS TOM YATES 599.05
10. Eye of the Storm RICK FALVO 592.3

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like Matthew Bayley, Joseph Treffiletti and Tom Yates have finished in the Top 10 twice each since 2004. Not an easy task, for sure, Mark. There are a lot of new names each year in the Top 10 and even the best of the best have a tough time repeating each year. It's not like in baseball, where we do see many of the same names from year to year.

That being said, every year there is a "fantasy football is pure luck" thread and you probably are the author of half of them!! Not that it's a bad subject to bring up each year, just saying...