Live Chat With Greg A. Wednesday, 11 AM EST

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Wed May 21, 2008 12:18 pm

Assumed odds: 1 in 50 years
Cost (priced at an expected 80% loss ratio): $25,000

Since Greg asked for closest without going over, I'm assuming an 80% loss ratio. If it was simply closest I would've gone with 75% loss ratio pricing, which would be $26,666.67

The other possibility would be the insurance company seeing odds of 100:1. I can't see them coming to the conclusion that odds would be less than 50:1, nor taking on the exceptional risk of being more than 100:1. Using 100:1, pricing would likely be 50% of my above estimate, so either $12,500 or $13,333.33. The fact that Greg is discussing it here makes me believe it may be 100:1, but that seems like a bit of an aggressive assumption on their part so I'll stick with 50:1.

[ May 21, 2008, 06:28 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed May 21, 2008 12:50 pm

All interesting picks thus far. Some folks obviously haven't done the math as far as number of years they expect a winner and how much you'd need to pay each year to cover the million dollar cost, but that's okay.

Everyone's heart is in the right direction.

The insurance company has all the odds of our contest, Riff, and they do believe it will happen at least once in 100 years and maybe even once in one year. We're between that range.

Keep the guesses coming. This is fun.

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Wed May 21, 2008 1:04 pm

If I were betting an over under on how many years until it happened I'd take under on 100 and on 50 and probably on 30. Since insurance company might not estimate skill factor as much as I do I'd hope for NFFC/NBC sake they use 1 in 30.

So I'll guess 1 in 30 years is insurance take on how often it will occur and they'll want 40K to insure it for 1 million.

Edit - If it's adding 1 million to the 200K to make 1.2 million then I'd say 40K. If it is adding 800K to the 200K to make 1 million total then maybe only 32.5K for the insurance.

[ May 21, 2008, 07:27 PM: Message edited by: Lightning Fast Whip ]

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Wed May 21, 2008 1:07 pm

EDIT- I was thinking about 1 in 20 but that seems too low...I'll stick with 1 in 30

[ May 21, 2008, 07:13 PM: Message edited by: Lightning Fast Whip ]

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Wed May 21, 2008 1:46 pm

Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
My guess is $15,000.

Odds guess: 1 in 20 years. Shrink, these don't match up. If the Insurance Company projected paying out $1 Million once every 20 years they would charge more than $300,000. in premiums (20x15) Investment revenue would off set some of the $700 Thousand shortfall but certainly not all of it. [/QUOTE]You're right, Riff...a total guess off the cuff without considering number logic..I'll take another scotch, please.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Wed May 21, 2008 2:25 pm

Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
EDIT- I was thinking about 1 in 20 but that seems too low...I'll stick with 1 in 30 Lightning, you realize the odds you're projecting are based on the same contestant winning both contests in the same year? Its not if I win the NFFC in 2008, I can win the NBC in 2014 and get a $1 Million bonus. They both must be won in the same year.
I don't know how someone can go from everyone having a 1-160,000 chance of winning both in the same year to the winner of one having a 1-400 chance of winning the other in the same year to someone having a 1-30 chance of winning both in the same year. CONFIDENCE, I guess!!!

Jim Wiseheart · Post by **Jim Wiseheart** » Wed May 21, 2008 2:51 pm

I'll say 1 in 100 chance and a rough premium estimate of $11,923.68, give or take .01

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Wed May 21, 2008 3:00 pm

Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by Lightning Fast Whip:
EDIT- I was thinking about 1 in 20 but that seems too low...I'll stick with 1 in 30 Lightning, you realize the odds you're projecting are based on the same contestant winning both contests in the same year? Its not if I win the NFFC in 2008, I can win the NBC in 2014 and get a $1 Million bonus. They both must be won in the same year.
I don't know how someone can go from everyone having a 1-160,000 chance of winning both in the same year to the winner of one having a 1-400 chance of winning the other in the same year to someone having a 1-30 chance of winning both in the same year. CONFIDENCE, I guess!!! [/QUOTE]-------------------------------------------------

Riff- I believe there are formats better at placing the best managers more consistently at the top than draft leagues do...but I still believe draft leagues are a game of skill and in no way do I think every manager has an equal shot at winning. In a great season a manager may get his sleepers right and get them on both teams. Also if a manager sees a Ryan Grant type has talent early and bids strong for him in both leagues he has a better than average chance of getting him in both leagues. With KDS a Manager probably wouldn't end up with 2 #1 slots very often but if he put a different slot very high on his KDS he might even be able to get his 1st rounder the same on both teams. I'm not a big draft guy but I'm sure there are at least a few here that would say they could do it once out of 100 tries them selfs. I know in format I concentrate on.. beating 400 teams in two competitions in same year would not even be a 100 to 1 shot for just me little own the whole field.

I stand by 30 to 1. And that may be underestimating the Top handful of Competitors here and what they are capable of in this format (but I think drafts leagues have limitations). Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think 100 to 1 is even close and 50 to 1 still doesn't assign as much skill to top players as I think they can acheive here. I know I sure wouldn't even think of insuring at 100 to 1...no way.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed May 21, 2008 3:07 pm

In baseball...I'd fear this happening more often...but FOOTBALL!!!

:rolleyes:

We have 10 years of NFFC and WCOFF to go off...and zero repeat winners...let alone same year both-event winners.

I'd bet the same person wins either the NFFC or NBC main event 5 times in 5 different years, before one person wins both main events in the same season in football.

~Lance

LFW · Post by **LFW** » Wed May 21, 2008 3:13 pm

SBM- I disagree very much. Just consider one of several points...say Injuries..they are one of the main luck factors in draft leagues. A manager is more likely to stay clean in 2 leagues in the same year than he would need to win the OA in 5 separate years.