Would You Consider Kentucky Derby Style In 2006?

[BillyWaz]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:
quote:Originally posted by BillyWaz:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Route C:
[qb] [QUOTE]Originally posted by Captain Hook:
[qb] [QUOTE]Originally posted by Route C:
[qb] How do you determine the "best" anyway?


Good points though RC. Gekko won it all last year, Zarzycki was top 3 in WCOFF in 2003 & 2004 (and wrote a book called "Drafting to Win- not a bad read by the way!), and William Del Pilar is in MANY fantasy expert drafts prior to the season and works for KFFL.

Currently, all 3 are in the bottom half of the NFFC in total points.

RC is correct. The "best" fantasy player WILL vary from year to year, and you need A LOT of luck to win ANY contest/league such as this. That's quite funny that you mentioned those "experts" because I was just pondering their expertise earlier.

I was gonna pose the question to all the MB folks about how they felt in regards to beating those who make a living off of this fantasy stuff.

There's more in addition to Robert and William, I believe....I recognized a couple of names of some fantasy football writers in the mix as well..

And I noticed a Samuel Caplan too, not sure if this is the "expert" Caplan. (Yes I am aware of Adam from footballinjuries.com)

Maybe somebody can clarify this for me.

I know I have gotten off of the subject of this thread but I will pose this question...

If these people are experts and make a living off of this, don't you think they should NEVER be in the bottom half of the standings????

Regardless?

This is my first high stakes fantasy event.

Prior to this, in my 4 years of playing fantasy football, I have never finished lower than 4th in any of my leagues or even lower than 3rd in points.

And the same will hopefully hold true this year.

Even Mr. 3INTBOY /I don't have common sense when it comes to the rules has HIS OWN WEBSITE and he is only 134th in overall points, just above Billy.

So I wonder, could Billy be an expert too?

Or how about myself?

What exactly entails being an expert?

And yes 3INTBOY, I, and many others are amazed at your lack of understanding when it came to the flex position. But I guess that should be expected from a "boy"

In the Fantasy Guru Expert League that Tom K. participates in, last year was almost won by a non-expert (though he did win Mr. Fantasy Football the year before)

And my train of thought just disappeared so I will quit rambling, as I sometimes tend to do on here.

It's just very comical to me that people are getting paid for their fantasy advice and insight, yet they can't even compete with the likes of you and I, who might be the very same people inquiring about their knowledge.

Quite the paradixical conundrum, huh? (I think I used that correctly, any grammar teachers on here?) [/QUOTE]Nice post GLY, but don't be surprised if you have some enemies...... SOON!

I agree with Captain Hook that Gekko winning is something you CANNOT take away, but he obviously is prone to a bad year (like anyone).

Your piece on the "experts" who do this for a living is interesting GLY. I think many of us have as much "quality" insight on players due to the internet, scouting, etc., so the only thing that separates the majority of us is L-U-C-K. Not saying some aren't ready more than others, but plugging in a player when your other is off, and he goes crazy is just being extremely "fortunate" IMO.

For example, last year in the NFFC I had 3 of my better players off in Week 9. My opponent was up on me by 5.3 points and he had Thomas Jones, and I had Wayne Chrebet. Jones got .5 (left the game hurt), and Chrebet ended up scoring his ONLY TD of the year against Miami on Monday night.

When things like that happen, it doesn't matter how much you know!

Like the old saying... "I'd rather be lucky than good!"

[Nag']

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:
And yes 3INTBOY, I, and many others are amazed at your lack of understanding when it came to the flex position. But I guess that should be expected from a "boy" Just an FYI, his "lack of understanding" of the Flex position will result in correction of the software for 2006 season and beyond which will allow players to be assigned & re-assigned as a Flex without being locked in.

Was that expected from a "boy"? :rolleyes:

[ November 25, 2005, 09:58 PM: Message edited by: Nag' ]

[Sollan]

Just like texas Hold'Em luck is a factor. However some guys/gals are just better than others to minimize the luck factor.

I started a spearate post earlier about determining the best of the best. The post did not really take off. I asked people to submit the names of the best teams.

Lumpy's Losers, CC Desparado, Follow Me, and King of Queens were suggested.

In looking at the history of these teams Lumpy's Losers is quite interesting. Last year they played in the DraftMasters, Auction, and Main Event. They one first place in all three. This year they will win thier main event league and are in contention in the DM, Auction, and Ultimate Leagues.

Can all that be explained by luck?

Follow me finished 2nd to Lumpy's Losers last year in the two leagues they competed against each other. This year Follow Me leads them in the Ultimate event by a game and also leads in a DM and his main event.

Can all that be explained by luck?

I do not know what makes someone an "industry expert"

But some people are just better at this than others.

Sollan

[BillyWaz]

Originally posted by Sollan:

Can all that be explained by luck?

I do not know what makes someone an "industry expert"

But some people are just better at this than others.

Sollan Not saying that some aren't better than others. Obviously Lumpy's Losers, Follow Me, etc. are GREAT owners, but a little luck does go a long way!

[Walla Walla]

No for Kentucky Fried!!! I knew this was going to happen after it became the rules in the NFBC. I wish Greg had thought this out better. My questions for Greg. Well this apply to The Draft Champions league? If so why? If not why not?
Will this apply to the auction leagues? If so why? If not why not?

[Captain Hook]

Originally posted by Walla Walla:
No for Kentucky Fried!!! I knew this was going to happen after it became the rules in the NFBC. I wish Greg had thought this out better. My questions for Greg. Well this apply to The Draft Champions league? If so why? If not why not?
Will this apply to the auction leagues? If so why? If not why not? I will let Greg post an answer for the Draftmasters (no specific reason that draft order has to be the same except for uniformity)
However I can answer the stupid part of the question - in Auction leagues it doesn't matter what the nomination order is.

[Route Collectors]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by BillyWaz:
[qb] [QUOTE]Originally posted by Route C:
[qb] [QUOTE]Originally posted by Captain Hook:
[qb] [QUOTE]Originally posted by Route C:
[qb] How do you determine the "best" anyway?

So I wonder, could Billy be an expert too?

Or how about myself?

What exactly entails being an expert?
Billy could, you could, anyone with the time could.
Putting LUCK aside, since it cannot be predicted, there are 2 areas IMO that could define an expert.
1)Knowledge
2)Instincts

Knowledge is available 24/7 up to the minute most times. Once upon a time in FF you could out study your competition if you were more willing to dig than they were. Now, what's the point?
If you spend the time scouring different news sources to find that "nugget of information", the same info will be repeated on ESPN News or Total Access 16 times before morning.

The point is, it doesn't take much effort to get "educated" any more. That means the lazy owners can now draft with enough knowledge to be competitive and with a few LUCKY breaks - win a championship.

True story! In my local league we had an owner that had a rep for buying a mag a week or 2 before the draft and practically following the ratings verbatum. Every year he was a middle of the packer. Last year - same thing, only he got his mag a couple of days before the draft and reluctantly showed up (he had a sinus infection)

This was our 1st year auction style so you'd think he'd really bomb. I can't remember how much but he spent a fair amount on his 1st 2 picks. Manning and McNabb. We all laughed at him. How could anyone spend 40% or so of their budget on 2 QB's?

The draft continues on and he's scrunging for RB's and WR's. Picks up guys like R.Wayne, Muhammed, Rudi Johnson.....etc.

The guy wins the league going away. At the end of the season he couldn't have told you who the leader was in each individual catagory - except Manning and Muhammed of course.

For me - this really hurts, as like most of you, I'm scouting info during the combines, NFL draft etc..

So that only leaves instincts. We've all got our stories, good and bad. I drafted Portis in the 5th round of his rookie year. Good instinct! I drafted Muhammed this year as a WR2. Bad instinct! The goal obviously is to have more good than bad instincts, but this varies from year to year as well.

An expert MAY be defined as someone who knows the rules and has perfected the use of all available strategies to achieve a desired result.
Sort of like Bobby Fisher. The main difference being, his pawns weren't eliminated because they ripped an ACL and his Bishop never went down for posessing a whizz-inator.

My point is: everyone's an expert and no ones an expert! There is no way to be a true expert in a game that changes so quickly without warning. In actuality - we are nothing more than gypsy fortune tellers hoping our crystal balls are more reliable this year than everyone else's. :rolleyes:

[ November 26, 2005, 11:25 AM: Message edited by: Route C ]

[BillyWaz]

Great post RC!!! Those are my sentiments EXACTLY only I didn't write all that down because I am not as smart as you!

Hope you had a great Thanksgiving buddy!

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Walla Walla:
No for Kentucky Fried!!! I knew this was going to happen after it became the rules in the NFBC. I wish Greg had thought this out better. My questions for Greg. Well this apply to The Draft Champions league? If so why? If not why not?
Will this apply to the auction leagues? If so why? If not why not? John, I'm not pushing any system on anyone. I've merely polled the participants to see if they like the current system better than an alternative system. We'll let the results speak for themselves. If it's anywhere close, I won't change a thing. It's as easy as that.

As for your questions, the nomination order doesn't make any difference in the auction league, so the answer is no. As for Draft Champions, it's possible we could do the KDS in that as well, depending on the vote on the main event. We'll see.

I'm not saying we'll do the KDS in 2006, but I'm seeking input and will weigh the results. It's not like I'm changing the NFFC from a 14-team league to an 18-team league or changing the payouts with a drastic alternative. I'm asking to see if you'd be interested in ranking your draft preference and then allowing us to apply them once we've RANDOMLY picked the leagues and the selection orders in each league. For football, it's possible that VERY little will change between what we pick randomly and what the draft preferences are. Certainly not with the early picks.

But I understand the concerns, which is why I've offered the poll. Let's see what the participants say about it and then you can criticize ME if changes are implemented.

[GOD Loves You]

Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by GOD Loves You:
And yes 3INTBOY, I, and many others are amazed at your lack of understanding when it came to the flex position. But I guess that should be expected from a "boy" Just an FYI, his "lack of understanding" of the Flex position will result in correction of the software for 2006 season and beyond which will allow players to be assigned & re-assigned as a Flex without being locked in.

Was that expected from a "boy"? :rolleyes: [/QUOTE]How can you call it a "correction" when that is how it was intended to be?

It's not like there was a glitch and he couldn't make the change.

Nag, you even somewhat criticized him on his management

Quote by Nag "P.S. But at least you're carrying a backup Kicker and Defense on their byes instead of more position players. There's a lesson to be learned here, see if you can figure out what it is."

I was taking a stab at his name when I said "boy", wasn't trying to be vindictive.

Though, the more I re-read over his comments regarding his "mistake", I think the assesment of "boy" actually fits due to his constant whinning and complaining.

I, myself, attempt to not belittle people with my comments as 3INTBOY did toward Tom and Greg....

Quote by 3INTBOY "You cannot be serious, the flex player is locked as a flex? That would be too stupid for the NFFC to have. Everything has been well done, again that would be too stupid. I also do not appreciate having NO REPLY and NO PHONE number to speak with someone in case of a lineup submission problem."

He then went on to compare the NFFC to WCOFF and how they allow the position to be changed after gametime.

TO EVERYONE....The last time I checked, this is the NFFC, not the WCOFF...please quit referring to them when it comes to different things involved in OUR league.

Do you think the people who run Wal-mart want there employees CONSTANTLY referring to what they do at Target?????

I understand Greg and Tom want to appease the masses, but the NFFC doesn't have to be run the same as the WCOFF.

This year I was debating on which to join.....do I want 200k or 100k? Well that's easy to answer!

But then I said, do I want to play in a 12 team league which is easier or a 14 team league which is harder.

Well I am hear so you can see what I chose.

No disrespect to Robert Z, but his results in the WCOFF and this year with us should probably speak volumes as to which competition is the better one.

Again, as usual I have started rambling and got off track....

So Nag, I just wonder why you are sticking up for someone's utter stupidity???

He kept saying, the FLEX position is not a "position".....Well then what is it?

That's like saying a Lincoln is not a vehicle, only Navigator's, Continental's, and Town Car's are vehicles.

That might not be a good analogy, but I think it fits.

I think I am going to complain too: I picked up Joe Nedney to be my kicker and he is now probably going to be out for the game this week.

He wasn't injured when I picked him up and now he is doubtful, I think I deserve a replacement because I am going to lose out on his points this week! (Please criticize my lack of quality roster management!)