-1 for QB Pick

[Greg Ambrosius]

Having a good kicker ultimately is a penalty. You can't drop him like you can a run-of-the-mill KR so you have to burn a roster spot during his bye week. I propose we have a KR-only reserve spot, kind of a 21 man reserve where we can park the KR for a week. Kind of like a parking garage for your KR.

I've already been told that we have too many roster spots and that the free agent wire is depleted. You have to make tough decisions with those 10 reserve spots, just like in baseball you have to make tough decisions with those 7 reserve spots. Some people want 32 players in the NFBC, but that would clearly change the dynamics of the game, just like going to 21 roster spots would change this game. Make the tough calls and don't cut the wrong guy.

[kjduke]

Pass happy? not much has changed in recent years unless you believe this season will be much different ...

NFL averages ... Cmp-Att, Yds, TD

2011 - 20-34, 243, 21 TD
2010 - 21-34, 237, 22 TD
2009, 20-33, 233, 21 TD

What do NFL averages have to do with a league where we start 12 or 14 of the 32 QBs who contribute to those averages? I suspect that if you showed the data for the top 12 QBs each of the last 5-7 years, there'd be a pretty big spike the last 2-3 years. And the increase in just the top 3-5 QBs would show an even bigger spike.

NFFC teams with a top QB get 15-25% of their total points from just that 1 lineup spot out of their 10.

FWIW, this isn't sour grapes. In my two mains, we have Brees and Brady. But I wouldn't mind seeing a more even contribution from all of the positions - with a slight increase at QB and slight decrease at kicker and DST, due to their different levels of predictability - as a whole across all leagues, notwithstanding occasional outliers like kj's kicker prowess this year (which I wonder if he's usually that successful at kicker year in and year out?).

I haven't looked at that, but I will when I have a chance.

I usually do well with kickers because I try, whereas many fantasy players seem to ignore them. I'm not the only one of course, when you pay attention to kickers you do notice other good owners that are taking the underrated rookie K's much earlier than if they just went down the typical ranking list of websites or prior year's stats.

Although for Q, dismissing them seems to be an actual strategy.

[Tom Kessenich]

Wait, so people are unhappy that they have productive players? Really? I find that incredibly hard to believe.

Twist my words all you want Tom. But you know I meant that many don't like the randomness of kicker scoring and how much that position scores related to others.

I wasn't sure what you meant Mike. I'm sorry, but I find it hard to believe anyone would be upset or don't like having a productive player regardless of how they feel about the rules. Sorry, but I don't buy that at all. That would be like saying Jason Witten owners in the FFPC are upset this week because they benefited heavily from that contest's scoring system. I don't believe for a second there is a single Witten owner in that contest unhappy about how that player did in Week 4.

I also take exception with saying someone like KJ is an exception and not the norm based on what he did with the kicker position this year. There are more than 4,000 teams in the NFFC alone. Saying that 95% of them are benefiting from luck as opposed to skill with a particular position doesn't wash with me. Seems to me that those who drafted Zeurlein, for example, (a rookie kicker on a highly suspect offense coming into the season) deserve to be praised rather than minimizing their move and saying they're only benefiting because of good luck.

You want to remove fantasy football randomness? Come up with a rule that eliminates the Brian Hartlines of the world having better fantasy weeks than Julio Jones and Percy Harvin combined or having Mohamed Sanu throw more TDs in a week than Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Tony Romo combined. Figure that one out and I'll be all ears.

[Sandman62]

Pass happy? not much has changed in recent years unless you believe this season will be much different ...

NFL averages ... Cmp-Att, Yds, TD

2011 - 20-34, 243, 21 TD
2010 - 21-34, 237, 22 TD
2009, 20-33, 233, 21 TD

What do NFL averages have to do with a league where we start 12 or 14 of the 32 QBs who contribute to those averages? I suspect that if you showed the data for the top 12 QBs each of the last 5-7 years, there'd be a pretty big spike the last 2-3 years. And the increase in just the top 3-5 QBs would show an even bigger spike.

NFFC teams with a top QB get 15-25% of their total points from just that 1 lineup spot out of their 10.

FWIW, this isn't sour grapes. In my two mains, we have Brees and Brady. But I wouldn't mind seeing a more even contribution from all of the positions - with a slight increase at QB and slight decrease at kicker and DST, due to their different levels of predictability - as a whole across all leagues, notwithstanding occasional outliers like kj's kicker prowess this year (which I wonder if he's usually that successful at kicker year in and year out?).

I haven't looked at that, but I will when I have a chance.

I usually do well with kickers because I try, whereas many fantasy players seem to ignore them. I'm not the only one of course, when you pay attention to kickers you do notice other good owners that are taking the underrated rookie K's much earlier than if they just went down the typical ranking list of websites or prior year's stats.

Although for Q, dismissing them seems to be an actual strategy.

Thanks for the data kj. By the stats provided earlier, it seems that most players can obtain a good kicker at some point. Aside from the occasional breakout like Akers last year, there are plenty who are largely similar. Even you with Tucker, who knows where he ends up in the rankings at the end of the season? He's currently 4th, but there are 5 others within 1.5 PPG - plus he'll be kicking outdoors in bad weather, so some of this could obviously change a lot.

That's my point and Glenn's too and likely many others who don't chime in - it's not about us whining that we don't have a chance at a good kicker; it's that the position as a whole has the potential for every starting player scoring 140 or more points. Given the amount of preseason unpredictability each year, the limited amount of research done by most on kickers compared to other positions and the large number of top kickers that come off the wire... it just doesn't seem that the reward (points) is commensurate. Given that, I'd rather see most kickers average about half as many points as they do. With that, every now and then one might help you. But they wouldn't win games for you. (Disclaimer: I too have won games where my kickers have made large contributions; but I don't factor that into my evaluation of the position's scoring.)

[Tom Kessenich]

140 points is less than 9 per week in a 16-game season. As a fantasy player, I wouldn't view that as an outlandish figure by any means and a sign the entire position needs to be significantly altered.

[Sandman62]

Wait, so people are unhappy that they have productive players? Really? I find that incredibly hard to believe.

Twist my words all you want Tom. But you know I meant that many don't like the randomness of kicker scoring and how much that position scores related to others.

I wasn't sure what you meant Mike. I'm sorry, but I find it hard to believe anyone would be upset or don't like having a productive player regardless of how they feel about the rules. Sorry, but I don't buy that at all. That would be like saying Jason Witten owners in the FFPC are upset this week because they benefited heavily from that contest's scoring system. I don't believe for a second there is a single Witten owner in that contest unhappy about how that player did in Week 4.

I also take exception with saying someone like KJ is an exception and not the norm based on what he did with the kicker position this year. There are more than 4,000 teams in the NFFC alone. Saying that 95% of them are benefiting from luck as opposed to skill with a particular position doesn't wash with me. Seems to me that those who drafted Zeurlein, for example, (a rookie kicker on a highly suspect offense coming into the season) deserve to be praised rather than minimizing their move and saying they're only benefiting because of good luck.

You want to remove fantasy football randomness? Come up with a rule that eliminates the Brian Hartlines of the world having better fantasy weeks than Julio Jones and Percy Harvin combined or having Mohamed Sanu throw more TDs in a week than Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Tony Romo combined. Figure that one out and I'll be all ears.

And Witten owners SHOULD revel in his production this week! They had to spend a round 5 or 6 pick to get him! But Hartline's big week is an outlier. Even if he goes on to be this year's Cruz, that's another outlier. OTOH, with kickers, it's the NORM that most of us don't draft the best ones MOST of the time, seeing so many end up each year in the top 12 (and then on our teams) despite not being drafted or being drafted as K2s. No offense to KJ, but (a) the season's not over so we don't yet know how good a kicker he has and (b) the ADP vs actual data for kickers clearly shows that most of us picked the wrong ones (so far), no? So when we go to the wire and get the ones we now see are better, how is that not luck, in that our research and draft skills had a lot less to do with our kickers than our other positions?

[mattjb]

What is harder...drafting a good kicker or getting the last word with Mike?

[kjduke]

Kickers and Team Defense are a lot alike. Both are lower scoring over a season but can be a huge difference maker in any given week. Both are under-researched. I feel like, at the highest level of fantasy sports -where even a slight edge can make a difference - you can't just ignore certain aspects of the game.

I'll go back to my real world argument ... Mike Shanahan thought it was a good idea to sign Billy Cundiff. He is a horrible kicker but Shanny probably agrees with Q that he shouldn't even have to waste a roster spot on one. So he signed a guy that had one decent season three or four years ago. He could've signed Novak or Kasay, not to mention that he could've drafted a decent kicker. He got lucky this week, but odds are he will lose a game because of Cundiff. And he deserves it.

Mike ----

Tucker was certainly disappointing this week, missing a mid-40s FG ... yes, no guarantee he, Zuerlein, Akers or anyone else will end up a top kicker. But you do your research, take your best shot and live with the consequences.

Also, picking up free agents is not luck, it's a conscious choice. Whether a kicker or anyone else, you have to manage your funds to decide what each guy is worth to you. That's definitely a skill.

[Tom Kessenich]

If you picked the wrong kicker, do better. I drafted Bailey in a bunch of leagues. I needed to do better because he hasn't gotten it done so far. I'm not blaming the rules or luck or anything like that. I blame myself for not having done a better job with that position. The good news is there is still an opportunity for me to correct that on the WW. As a player, I LOVE that because I'd much rather get the opportunity to improve my team rather than being forced to stick with an unproductive player. I consider that a good thing for this game we play.

[Sandman62]

By that argument Tom, then with all the committee RBs these days, why not increase RBs to 1.5PPR so that when we don't do a good job drafting them, we can get an easy boost from the wire?

And matt, I noticed you didn't give Tom any grief for continuing to respond? Whatever.