Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jun 11, 2008 1:10 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Okay, my column on this subject is on the NFL home page at Rotoworld.com. Enjoy:

****://www.rotoworld.com/content/home_NFL.aspx Funny how a certain recently-retired QB just happened to slip into the storyline. [/QUOTE]Why am I labeled such a homer?

Hey, I was looking for an example of someone who has proven you can put up MVP calibers more than one year in a row and it's not my fault the greatest QB in the history of the game happened to be a Packer and a perfect example here.

Okay, I admit he wasn't the greatest, but you got me going. Now just enjoy the column.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jun 11, 2008 1:11 pm

Originally posted by RiFF:
Greg,

Enjoyed the article. The only issue I would have with it is; I believe T.O. is every bit as important to Romo's success as Moss is to Brady's. If, T.O. pulled another Philly caper, which I don't believe will happen, Romo goes from being a top 2, 3 or 4 QB to somewhere in the 6-10 range. If Brady lost Moss, he goes from #1 to possibly 4 or 5.
But I agree Brady definitely needs Moss to warrant a 1st round selection. All three QBs I mentioned in the article need their top WRs to be valuable. Brady is no exception as I think everyone will agree Wes Welker isn't a No. 1 wideout. He benefits by Moss clearing out everything deep, so I'm not so sure Brady gets 28 TD passes without Moss this year.

But your point is taken.

3INTBOY · Post by **3INTBOY** » Wed Jun 11, 2008 1:59 pm

You cannot win picking a QB in the first 2 rounds. Unless everything elese goes perfect.

His position fills 1 spot out of 10 starters.
Even if he outscores his comepetition. The guys that drafted Romo/Big Ben in the 6th/7th or even later had teams loaded with more potential.

The reason Brady owners won is they had 3 players already on their team that did well THEN Brady went nuts.

Not the other way around.

3'

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Wed Jun 11, 2008 2:36 pm

Well, you CAN win taking Brady in the 1st Round, it's just probably harder, that's all. Sure, Brady is an almost sure thing to get you those "First Round" points, but that's not really the issue here.

The bottom line for me is that you only need one good QB on your roster to win, and that QB can be had in the 3rd, 4th, or even later Rounds. The question is whether you're willing to burn your 1st Round pick on a position that requires only one starter each week.

On the other hand, you need at least two good RB's and at least three good WR's to win. The later you wait to start stockpiling these positions, the harder it will be to accumulate the critical mass needed for victory. Plus, you would leave yourself with very little room for error in selecting those RB's and WR's. Your 2nd, 3rd, and perhaps even your 4th Round picks had better be spot on or you're toast.

That all being said, with 3RR, I might still be tempted to take Brady LATE in the 1st Round since my 2nd and 3rd Round picks would be pretty high, giving me a better chance of pulling it off.

So in the end, I'd rather not take Brady in the 1st, but I could see a set of circumstances in which I would.

Diesel · Post by **Diesel** » Wed Jun 11, 2008 2:51 pm

Originally posted by RiFF:
Greg,

Enjoyed the article. The only issue I would have with it is; I believe T.O. is every bit as important to Romo's success as Moss is to Brady's. If, T.O. pulled another Philly caper, which I don't believe will happen, Romo goes from being a top 2, 3 or 4 QB to somewhere in the 6-10 range. If Brady lost Moss, he goes from #1 to possibly 4 or 5.
But I agree Brady definitely needs Moss to warrant a 1st round selection. That's hard to argue. I'm pretty sure that every QB that has had T.O., has had his best statistical years. Even with the turmoil he brang.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:52 pm

Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
You cannot win picking a QB in the first 2 rounds. Unless everything elese goes perfect.

His position fills 1 spot out of 10 starters.
Even if he outscores his comepetition. The guys that drafted Romo/Big Ben in the 6th/7th or even later had teams loaded with more potential.

The reason Brady owners won is they had 3 players already on their team that did well THEN Brady went nuts.

Not the other way around.

3' What'sthe difference where the points come from? Do you get "bonus" points for having the highest scoring tandem of RB's or for having the highest scoring trio of WR's? NO. Of course for Brady to warrant a 1st round pick he'd have to score appreciably more than the "average" QB. He wouldn't necessarily need to average the 34+ points he did last year, but he'd have to be in the 28-30 point range. That would equate to about 3-5 points more than QB's 2-4, 5-7 for QB's 5-8 and about 10-11 points for QB's 9-14.
So, instead of taking a RB with pick #7, you take Brady. So you pass on Barber or Grant or Portis or LJ. Let's assume you miss onthe best of that bunch and pass on a RB that would have given you 18 points per game. So you end up taking a RB in the 6th or 7th round instead of a QB that you would have had to take if you hadn't taken Brady. Let's assume that RB only averages 9 points per game. If Brady gets his 29 points per game, (5+ less than last year) and your 7th round RB gets 9 that's 38 points per week.
If you picked the correct RB instead of Brady you would still need to get a QB to average 20 points per week in the 7th round to be at the same place as Brady and your 9 point per week RB got you.
Of course, last year stats are just that...last year's. So, if you don't believe Brady will get at least 35+ total TD's this year, then you'll want to get that 18 point per week RB. But if you go that route, make sure to avoid the RB that gets injured or the one that averages 13 points instead of 18.
I guess I don't believe you need a "perfect" draft if you take Brady in the 1st; but you will need Brady to put up 1st round numbers to win.

Also, I disagree that last year Brady owners had 2 or 3 "top" players with Brady and that is why they won. In fact in many cases the Brady owners had S Jax or LJ and still won despite having a 1st round "flop" because they had Brady.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:59 pm

win with brady in the 1st round...i don't think so. better to get manning in the 2nd.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:11 pm

Originally posted by SNAKE:
...win with Manning in the 2nd Round?...don't think so, better to get Romo in the 3rd...SNAKE if manning is there in the mid/late 2nd, u gotta take him. very unlikely romo makes it to mid/late 3rd come august.