Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:18 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by Gekko:
THAT IS WHY I THINK FANTASY FOOTBALL IS MOSTLY LUCK. If you truly believe this then you also have to logically explain how something can be "mostly luck" yet the same people use knowledge and skill to continue to succeed year after year.

The truth is, you can't explain it because it's not possible to have both. Once you accept this, you will understand my "luck is a constant" point. [/QUOTE]sorry nag, luck is not constant. we are playing in the short run of the curve...a place you said luck lives. [/QUOTE]If you definite "luck" same as I do, which is: anything that is beyond our control as FF owners, then you must believe that this is something that is equal for all. As I said before, sometimes one has more good luck, sometimes one has more bad, but overall it always evens out. If you don't believe that luck is equal for all, then you probably believe in the boogie man as well. I don't think you do.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:19 am

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
I think he may be referring to the people who make a profit/earn $$ year after year. and how would nag have this data??? he keeps a database of all the high stakes players and their profits

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:20 am

Originally posted by Nag':
If you definite "luck" same as I do, which is: anything that is beyond our control as FF owners, then you must believe that this is something that is equal for all. As I said before, sometimes one has more good luck, sometimes one has more bad, but overall it always evens out. If you don't believe that luck is equal for all, then you probably believe in the boogie man as well. I don't think you do. The Grand Prize winner (a big reason people play high stakes events) is determined by a 3 week sprint. If Waz is the #1 ranked lifetime player in the NFFC and has made the championship round 3 or 4 times, why hasn’t he done better? Are you telling me the #1 ranked NFFC player turns his “skill” off once the playoffs start? Of course not; the truth is anything can and will happen WHEN SCORES RESET in those last three weeks. Even Waz knows this, which is why he started a thread about this very subject yesterday.

With you being a game operator now, you have a vested interest in keeping fantasy football under the façade of being a game comprised of mostly skill. It’s important to know where people are coming from (esp operators), and I understand that.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:26 am

Originally posted by Nag':
If you definite "luck" same as I do, which is: anything that is beyond our control as FF owners, then you must believe that this is something that is equal for all. As I said before, sometimes one has more good luck, sometimes one has more bad, but overall it always evens out. If you don't believe that luck is equal for all, then you probably believe in the boogie man as well. I don't think you do. Nag –don’t go changing your tune now. Luck IN THE LONG RUN allegedly evens out. When it comes to fantasy football, the long run, IMO, isn’t in our lifetimes. How many NFFC main events will the average NFFC customer play in their lifetimes? 5-10 maybe? Couple that with the H2H format and the 3 week sprint for the big payday, and this is the short run. Sorry to break it to you.

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:27 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
If you definite "luck" same as I do, which is: anything that is beyond our control as FF owners, then you must believe that this is something that is equal for all. As I said before, sometimes one has more good luck, sometimes one has more bad, but overall it always evens out. If you don't believe that luck is equal for all, then you probably believe in the boogie man as well. I don't think you do. The Grand Prize winner (a big reason people play high stakes events) is determined by a 3 week sprint. If Waz is the #1 ranked lifetime player in the NFFC and has made the championship round 3 or 4 times, why hasn’t he done better? Are you telling me the #1 ranked NFFC player turns his “skill” off once the playoffs start? Of course not; the truth is anything can and will happen WHEN SCORES RESET in those last three weeks. Even Waz knows this, which is why he started a thread about this very subject yesterday.

With you being a game operator now, you have a vested interest in keeping fantasy football under the façade of being a game comprised of mostly skill. It’s important to know where people are coming from (esp operators), and I understand that. [/QUOTE]You continue looking at this issue in a narrow way. It's not about 3-weeks sprints or H2H or injuries or any other specific issue. It's not about one particular league or one particular year. It's about FF as a whole and what drives it and who succeeds in it. Try to "lift" yourself up above all of this little stuff and see the big picture. When you do, you will see the light.

As for me being a contest operator, I understand you want to use this point to discredit my opinion, espcially since you are having difficulty disputing my arguments. But I've already proved that my opinion goes back way before my position as a game operator. Bring this up is a red herring. And I think you know this well.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:30 am

Originally posted by Nag':
If you definite "luck" same as I do, which is: anything that is beyond our control as FF owners WOW...that's a pretty open definition...but not unreasonable, since we don't play the games, we only play the odds and speculate.

Interesting.

So our skill lies in adjusting to the constantly there, but constantly changing "luck".

Not bad. Still leaves room for plenty of skill...but not the 100% you claim. (IMO)

Would tracking the past rolls, and predicting/speculating the future rolls of roulette or keno or bingo also be considered 100% skill when you happen to win?

[ November 06, 2009, 12:36 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:34 am

Originally posted by Nag':
You continue looking at this issue in a narrow way. It's not about 3-weeks sprints or H2H or injuries or any other specific issue. It's not about one particular league or one particular year. It's about FF as a whole and what drives it and who succeeds in it. Try to "lift" yourself up above all of this little stuff and see the big picture. When you do, you will see the light.
oh, i'm thinking big picture here. what drives any high stake fantasy football contest is a regular season (based on H2H) and then the playoffs (based on a three week sprint). when you realize this, YOU will see the light.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:35 am

Originally posted by Nag':
As for me being a contest operator, I understand you want to use this point to discredit my opinion, espcially since you are having difficulty disputing my arguments. But I've already proved that my opinion goes back way before my position as a game operator. Bring this up is a red herring. And I think you know this well. i'm pointing out you are a game operator, and NOW have a vested interest in how your comments are perceived. there's nothing wrong with that nag. i'm just pointing that out. don't be so defensive.

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:41 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
As for me being a contest operator, I understand you want to use this point to discredit my opinion, espcially since you are having difficulty disputing my arguments. But I've already proved that my opinion goes back way before my position as a game operator. Bring this up is a red herring. And I think you know this well. i'm pointing out you are a game operator, and NOW have a vested interest in how your comments are perceived. there's nothing wrong with that nag. i'm just pointing that out. don't be so defensive. [/QUOTE]My only vested interest is that people see me as an honest person who speaks what he believes. You are trying to suggest that the integrity of my opinion is effected by my position as a game operator. This is incorrect, I have proved it by showing a post from 2 years ago. That's all I am being defensive about. Rightfully so, I think.

[ November 06, 2009, 12:42 PM: Message edited by: Nag' ]

botherk · Post by **botherk** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:49 am

I was going to make a post with a lot of study and forethought to it, but thought better of it.

I got lambasted saying that fantasy baseball is 70% luck last year. Thats fine.
We control so little in fantasy sports. The randomness of what happens on the field drives the luck factor higher than most want to admit.
Some folks like the luck. Heck, it wouldn't surprise me if Lance still plays Chutes and Ladders . And thinks of it as a skill game! Its no secret that Lance does not like to grind in fantasy baseball, and will vote against any rule advancing skill factors.
Some folks like it easier and fantasy football fills the bill.
Poker is said to have a 40% skill factor, which puts it in the same ballpark as fantasy baseball for me. There are a lot of variables in each game, but the overriding factor is the turn of the card and plays made on the field. Those are luck based. Although the skilled player in both may think they know what will happen due to due dilligence, its still chance.
Fantasy football with injuries being larger, less players on the roster, less categories, and a smaller timeframe is comparable to another card game for me. Blackjack. Blackjack is said to have a 5-10% skill factor and I can live with that number for fantasy football. Like blackjack we are playing cards that are dealt to us at the draft. Even doubling down as the playoffs begin. Once we are dealt our cards or players, luck dominates.