Tom, why is it so easy for you to see him continuing to improve yet impossible for you to consider that with all the enormous good fortune he's had, getting "better" might just mean about the same 20 PPG? Unless you think that luck and defense and bad offenses and anthing else just had nothing to do with it.
Therein lies our biggest disagreement: you think his floor is his current 18 with the sky the limit; I think his current floor is artificially inflated.
We shall see - but probably not this season.
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
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Tom Kessenich
- Posts: 29345
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Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Mike, I don't think the sky is the limit. I think he's proven to be an extremely consistent and reliable fantasy QB. Given his youth and work ethic I don't think it's unrealistic to believe he could improve. If he does, then it's hardly unrealistic to believe he could go from QB12 to something higher. Given how he showed last season he could be QB1 it's hardly a reach at all to project him as a potential Top 10 QB. But I'm not sitting here and saying he's going to ascend to the level guys like Rodgers, Brees and Brady are at from a fantasy perspective.
Where you and I differ most strongly, though, is you keep getting hung up on his "enormous good fortune." You seem unwilling to accept the possibility Tebow himself might have something to do with all of that. Again, at no time have I said he's solely responsible for everything that's happened. But the fact remains this was one of the worst teams in the league before he became the starter and now they're the front-runner for a division title. It seems silly to me to dismiss all Tebow has done as if he's had no hand whatsoever in all of this. Or to simply chalk it all up to "enormous good fortune."
I'll say the same thing about that as I do when people lament that fantasy football is all luck. Is there luck involved? Absolutely. But the best players tend to put themselves in position to capitalize on good fortune. So instead of saying all Tebow is doing is getting by on good luck, perhaps it's time to admit that he's making his own good fortune by playing so well in crunch time. And by doing that, he's putting himself and his team in position to capitalize when things start going their way.
Just a thought.
Where you and I differ most strongly, though, is you keep getting hung up on his "enormous good fortune." You seem unwilling to accept the possibility Tebow himself might have something to do with all of that. Again, at no time have I said he's solely responsible for everything that's happened. But the fact remains this was one of the worst teams in the league before he became the starter and now they're the front-runner for a division title. It seems silly to me to dismiss all Tebow has done as if he's had no hand whatsoever in all of this. Or to simply chalk it all up to "enormous good fortune."
I'll say the same thing about that as I do when people lament that fantasy football is all luck. Is there luck involved? Absolutely. But the best players tend to put themselves in position to capitalize on good fortune. So instead of saying all Tebow is doing is getting by on good luck, perhaps it's time to admit that he's making his own good fortune by playing so well in crunch time. And by doing that, he's putting himself and his team in position to capitalize when things start going their way.
Just a thought.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
This horse is dead. Agree to disagree. If you think he would average what he does now vs. uninjured teams or good offenses or good defenses, then I guess that's why they call it "blind faith". Hard to believe anyone watching these games would think he hasn't been aided by some great luck or that an 8-game sample with such luck is any indication of future results.
Please do draft him in the top 10 QBs next year, and spread the word too.
[ December 13, 2011, 07:18 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
Please do draft him in the top 10 QBs next year, and spread the word too.
[ December 13, 2011, 07:18 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
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Tom Kessenich
- Posts: 29345
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Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
I'm not sure why there have to be issued qualifiers with Tebow's production. Are the same qualifiers used for other QBs who do well? Aaron Rodgers has faced eight of the worst defenses in the league this season. Should that be viewed as a strike against his production? I'm obviously not saying Tebow's as good as Rodgers but I don't understand why Tebow is held to standards other QBs are not.
The bottom line for fantasy is production. Tebow is producing. How he's doing it or who he's doing it against is meaningless from a fantasy perspective. All his owners care about is whether he will produce and thus far he's produced consistently.
The bottom line in the NFL is winning and Tebow and the Broncos are winning. He may not be doing it in conventional fashion (although I would argue in the fourth quarter he often has), but who cares at this point?
If people don't believe in Tebow, that's fine. Heck, I'm not sure I believe in him. It's certainly mind-boggling what he's doing. But instead of issuing qualifiers and seeking to minimize what he's doing because he's not facing a specific level of competition (one few other QBs happen to be facing either as I've pointed out), I'm just going to enjoy the ride. It's definitely been a lot of fun as a Tebow owner and an NFL fan. That's what makes the Broncos-Patriots game one I can't wait to see.
The bottom line for fantasy is production. Tebow is producing. How he's doing it or who he's doing it against is meaningless from a fantasy perspective. All his owners care about is whether he will produce and thus far he's produced consistently.
The bottom line in the NFL is winning and Tebow and the Broncos are winning. He may not be doing it in conventional fashion (although I would argue in the fourth quarter he often has), but who cares at this point?
If people don't believe in Tebow, that's fine. Heck, I'm not sure I believe in him. It's certainly mind-boggling what he's doing. But instead of issuing qualifiers and seeking to minimize what he's doing because he's not facing a specific level of competition (one few other QBs happen to be facing either as I've pointed out), I'm just going to enjoy the ride. It's definitely been a lot of fun as a Tebow owner and an NFL fan. That's what makes the Broncos-Patriots game one I can't wait to see.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Here's my take on Tebow for fantasy football next year. First I think his upside will be limited by his head coach. His average fantasy points per game is well down this year from 2010 and that because of the conservative play calling of the coaching staff.
Second, he carries well above average risk due to the fact that they could pull him as the starter the first time Denver loses 2-3 games in a row.
But even given these risks, I think his ceiling is much higher than what he is scoring today. IF he does improve with a full year of training camp, and IF Elway does work with his throwing motion, and IF his WR's do get better this coming year, he could get closer to 25 points per game. But he needs a coaching staff that trusts him the entire game - not just in the 4th quarter.
For me his floor isn't 18 PPG - it's zero. The only thing that keeps him under 18 is Denver not starting him. So for me that is the risk. If you draft Tebow next year then you need a solid backup. But I would roll with him as a late round high upside starter.
From a personal standpoint - there is nobody in the NFL more fun to watch than Tim Tebow.! I can't wait for the Denver game each week!
Wayne
Second, he carries well above average risk due to the fact that they could pull him as the starter the first time Denver loses 2-3 games in a row.
But even given these risks, I think his ceiling is much higher than what he is scoring today. IF he does improve with a full year of training camp, and IF Elway does work with his throwing motion, and IF his WR's do get better this coming year, he could get closer to 25 points per game. But he needs a coaching staff that trusts him the entire game - not just in the 4th quarter.
For me his floor isn't 18 PPG - it's zero. The only thing that keeps him under 18 is Denver not starting him. So for me that is the risk. If you draft Tebow next year then you need a solid backup. But I would roll with him as a late round high upside starter.
From a personal standpoint - there is nobody in the NFL more fun to watch than Tim Tebow.! I can't wait for the Denver game each week!
Wayne
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
I'm not sure why there have to be issued qualifiers with Tebow's production. Are the same qualifiers used for other QBs who do well? Aaron Rodgers has faced eight of the worst defenses in the league this season. Should that be viewed as a strike against his production? I'm obviously not saying Tebow's as good as Rodgers but I don't understand why Tebow is held to standards other QBs are not.
The bottom line for fantasy is production. Tebow is producing. How he's doing it or who he's doing it against is meaningless from a fantasy perspective. All his owners care about is whether he will produce and thus far he's produced consistently.
The bottom line in the NFL is winning and Tebow and the Broncos are winning. He may not be doing it in conventional fashion (although I would argue in the fourth quarter he often has), but who cares at this point?
If people don't believe in Tebow, that's fine. Heck, I'm not sure I believe in him. It's certainly mind-boggling what he's doing. But instead of issuing qualifiers and seeking to minimize what he's doing because he's not facing a specific level of competition (one few other QBs happen to be facing either as I've pointed out), I'm just going to enjoy the ride. It's definitely been a lot of fun as a Tebow owner and an NFL fan. That's what makes the Broncos-Patriots game one I can't wait to see. It's because there is no way Tebow can be doing it on talent, because he has none, or so they say. So, it must be the competition, because he can't perform against a good defense, or at least he cannot do it against a good defense who doesn't have any injuries, which as you know, there are many NFL defenses that haven't had any injuries this year. So, yeah, if Tebow was playing the All Madden team, he would definitely not do what he is doing, except of course, if his defense bailed him out of all his multiple interception games and all those fumbles he gives up.......
I'm not sure why there have to be issued qualifiers with Tebow's production. Are the same qualifiers used for other QBs who do well? Aaron Rodgers has faced eight of the worst defenses in the league this season. Should that be viewed as a strike against his production? I'm obviously not saying Tebow's as good as Rodgers but I don't understand why Tebow is held to standards other QBs are not.
The bottom line for fantasy is production. Tebow is producing. How he's doing it or who he's doing it against is meaningless from a fantasy perspective. All his owners care about is whether he will produce and thus far he's produced consistently.
The bottom line in the NFL is winning and Tebow and the Broncos are winning. He may not be doing it in conventional fashion (although I would argue in the fourth quarter he often has), but who cares at this point?
If people don't believe in Tebow, that's fine. Heck, I'm not sure I believe in him. It's certainly mind-boggling what he's doing. But instead of issuing qualifiers and seeking to minimize what he's doing because he's not facing a specific level of competition (one few other QBs happen to be facing either as I've pointed out), I'm just going to enjoy the ride. It's definitely been a lot of fun as a Tebow owner and an NFL fan. That's what makes the Broncos-Patriots game one I can't wait to see. It's because there is no way Tebow can be doing it on talent, because he has none, or so they say. So, it must be the competition, because he can't perform against a good defense, or at least he cannot do it against a good defense who doesn't have any injuries, which as you know, there are many NFL defenses that haven't had any injuries this year. So, yeah, if Tebow was playing the All Madden team, he would definitely not do what he is doing, except of course, if his defense bailed him out of all his multiple interception games and all those fumbles he gives up.......
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CoMoHusker
- Posts: 491
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 6:00 pm
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
[QB] I'm not sure why there have to be issued qualifiers with Tebow's production. Are the same qualifiers used for other QBs who do well? Aaron Rodgers has faced eight of the worst defenses in the league this season. Should that be viewed as a strike against his production? I'm obviously not saying Tebow's as good as Rodgers but I don't understand why Tebow is held to standards other QBs are not.
Tom, I have an extremely difficult time even seeing Tebow mentioned in the same sentence as Rodgers, let alone any type of comparison. Regardless of what type of defense he faces, AR is on top of his game and consistent in what he does for the entire game.
I don't hold Tebow to any standard other than the one of an NFL QB. Other than maybe Blaine Gabbert, I just don't see many regular starting QB's in the league that struggle the way Tebow does for long stretches each and every week. I continue to ask myself if he is capable of these things in the 4th quarter, why can't he be more consistent?
I am in agreement with you that he is a very worthwhile fantasy option right now. The eye test for his capabilities as a sustainable NFL starter has to raise concern. If Denver were to drop a few games in a row, what would Elway do? That may be enough for him to go another direction and sink fantasy ships if owners gamble on Tebow too high. IMO, I think there are just much safer options with very similar or even better production value.
[QB] I'm not sure why there have to be issued qualifiers with Tebow's production. Are the same qualifiers used for other QBs who do well? Aaron Rodgers has faced eight of the worst defenses in the league this season. Should that be viewed as a strike against his production? I'm obviously not saying Tebow's as good as Rodgers but I don't understand why Tebow is held to standards other QBs are not.
Tom, I have an extremely difficult time even seeing Tebow mentioned in the same sentence as Rodgers, let alone any type of comparison. Regardless of what type of defense he faces, AR is on top of his game and consistent in what he does for the entire game.
I don't hold Tebow to any standard other than the one of an NFL QB. Other than maybe Blaine Gabbert, I just don't see many regular starting QB's in the league that struggle the way Tebow does for long stretches each and every week. I continue to ask myself if he is capable of these things in the 4th quarter, why can't he be more consistent?
I am in agreement with you that he is a very worthwhile fantasy option right now. The eye test for his capabilities as a sustainable NFL starter has to raise concern. If Denver were to drop a few games in a row, what would Elway do? That may be enough for him to go another direction and sink fantasy ships if owners gamble on Tebow too high. IMO, I think there are just much safer options with very similar or even better production value.
Go Big Red!
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
[QB] I'm not sure why there have to be issued qualifiers with Tebow's production. Are the same qualifiers used for other QBs who do well? Aaron Rodgers has faced eight of the worst defenses in the league this season. Should that be viewed as a strike against his production? I'm obviously not saying Tebow's as good as Rodgers but I don't understand why Tebow is held to standards other QBs are not.
Tom, I have an extremely difficult time even seeing Tebow mentioned in the same sentence as Rodgers, let alone any type of comparison. Regardless of what type of defense he faces, AR is on top of his game and consistent in what he does for the entire game.
I don't hold Tebow to any standard other than the one of an NFL QB. Other than maybe Blaine Gabbert, I just don't see many regular starting QB's in the league that struggle the way Tebow does for long stretches each and every week. I continue to ask myself if he is capable of these things in the 4th quarter, why can't he be more consistent?
I am in agreement with you that he is a very worthwhile fantasy option right now. The eye test for his capabilities as a sustainable NFL starter has to raise concern. If Denver were to drop a few games in a row, what would Elway do? That may be enough for him to go another direction and sink fantasy ships if owners gamble on Tebow too high. IMO, I think there are just much safer options with very similar or even better production value. If Tebow gets the Broncos to the playoffs, he will get MVP votes. I guaranty it. He won't win it, but he will then be in the "same sentence" as Rodgers, like it or not.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
[QB] I'm not sure why there have to be issued qualifiers with Tebow's production. Are the same qualifiers used for other QBs who do well? Aaron Rodgers has faced eight of the worst defenses in the league this season. Should that be viewed as a strike against his production? I'm obviously not saying Tebow's as good as Rodgers but I don't understand why Tebow is held to standards other QBs are not.
Tom, I have an extremely difficult time even seeing Tebow mentioned in the same sentence as Rodgers, let alone any type of comparison. Regardless of what type of defense he faces, AR is on top of his game and consistent in what he does for the entire game.
I don't hold Tebow to any standard other than the one of an NFL QB. Other than maybe Blaine Gabbert, I just don't see many regular starting QB's in the league that struggle the way Tebow does for long stretches each and every week. I continue to ask myself if he is capable of these things in the 4th quarter, why can't he be more consistent?
I am in agreement with you that he is a very worthwhile fantasy option right now. The eye test for his capabilities as a sustainable NFL starter has to raise concern. If Denver were to drop a few games in a row, what would Elway do? That may be enough for him to go another direction and sink fantasy ships if owners gamble on Tebow too high. IMO, I think there are just much safer options with very similar or even better production value. If Tebow gets the Broncos to the playoffs, he will get MVP votes. I guaranty it. He won't win it, but he will then be in the "same sentence" as Rodgers, like it or not.
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CoMoHusker
- Posts: 491
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 6:00 pm
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Al R G:
quote:Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
[QB] I'm not sure why there have to be issued qualifiers with Tebow's production. Are the same qualifiers used for other QBs who do well? Aaron Rodgers has faced eight of the worst defenses in the league this season. Should that be viewed as a strike against his production? I'm obviously not saying Tebow's as good as Rodgers but I don't understand why Tebow is held to standards other QBs are not.
Tom, I have an extremely difficult time even seeing Tebow mentioned in the same sentence as Rodgers, let alone any type of comparison. Regardless of what type of defense he faces, AR is on top of his game and consistent in what he does for the entire game.
I don't hold Tebow to any standard other than the one of an NFL QB. Other than maybe Blaine Gabbert, I just don't see many regular starting QB's in the league that struggle the way Tebow does for long stretches each and every week. I continue to ask myself if he is capable of these things in the 4th quarter, why can't he be more consistent?
I am in agreement with you that he is a very worthwhile fantasy option right now. The eye test for his capabilities as a sustainable NFL starter has to raise concern. If Denver were to drop a few games in a row, what would Elway do? That may be enough for him to go another direction and sink fantasy ships if owners gamble on Tebow too high. IMO, I think there are just much safer options with very similar or even better production value. If Tebow gets the Broncos to the playoffs, he will get MVP votes. I guaranty it. He won't win it, but he will then be in the "same sentence" as Rodgers, like it or not. [/QUOTE]Why? Because his team won a horrible division? There is a good chance that the Broncos will be the only team with a winning record in that division. At the beginning of the year I thought any of those teams could win the division given how difficult the Chiefs schedule was and how god awful of a coach Norv Turner is.
Tebow is winning games but his numbers are awful. If you base the vote simply off wins or how important a player is to their team then Peyton Manning should win because obviously he is the reason the Colts win 12 games every year. I don't really think that but I know that point would be made.
I believe Brady was the first ever unanimous MVP last year going for 3900-36-4. If Rodgers continues his current pace and his team goes undefeated, how is he not the unanimous winner this year? Maybe Brees breaks Marino's record and the Saints get the two seed. I could see Brees getting some votes. Hell, I'd vote for Gronkowski before Tebow. He's rewriting the record books for the TE position and is the best in the league.
quote:Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
[QB] I'm not sure why there have to be issued qualifiers with Tebow's production. Are the same qualifiers used for other QBs who do well? Aaron Rodgers has faced eight of the worst defenses in the league this season. Should that be viewed as a strike against his production? I'm obviously not saying Tebow's as good as Rodgers but I don't understand why Tebow is held to standards other QBs are not.
Tom, I have an extremely difficult time even seeing Tebow mentioned in the same sentence as Rodgers, let alone any type of comparison. Regardless of what type of defense he faces, AR is on top of his game and consistent in what he does for the entire game.
I don't hold Tebow to any standard other than the one of an NFL QB. Other than maybe Blaine Gabbert, I just don't see many regular starting QB's in the league that struggle the way Tebow does for long stretches each and every week. I continue to ask myself if he is capable of these things in the 4th quarter, why can't he be more consistent?
I am in agreement with you that he is a very worthwhile fantasy option right now. The eye test for his capabilities as a sustainable NFL starter has to raise concern. If Denver were to drop a few games in a row, what would Elway do? That may be enough for him to go another direction and sink fantasy ships if owners gamble on Tebow too high. IMO, I think there are just much safer options with very similar or even better production value. If Tebow gets the Broncos to the playoffs, he will get MVP votes. I guaranty it. He won't win it, but he will then be in the "same sentence" as Rodgers, like it or not. [/QUOTE]Why? Because his team won a horrible division? There is a good chance that the Broncos will be the only team with a winning record in that division. At the beginning of the year I thought any of those teams could win the division given how difficult the Chiefs schedule was and how god awful of a coach Norv Turner is.
Tebow is winning games but his numbers are awful. If you base the vote simply off wins or how important a player is to their team then Peyton Manning should win because obviously he is the reason the Colts win 12 games every year. I don't really think that but I know that point would be made.
I believe Brady was the first ever unanimous MVP last year going for 3900-36-4. If Rodgers continues his current pace and his team goes undefeated, how is he not the unanimous winner this year? Maybe Brees breaks Marino's record and the Saints get the two seed. I could see Brees getting some votes. Hell, I'd vote for Gronkowski before Tebow. He's rewriting the record books for the TE position and is the best in the league.
Go Big Red!
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ForLoveOfTheGame
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