Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

thegambler · Post by **thegambler** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 1:47 am

i would put tebow in the same category, fantasy wise, with palmer, schaub and cutler....all would be very nice backups but i'm not sure if i want any of them as a starter all year.

by the way i have tebow in one of my leagues....

[ December 15, 2011, 07:48 AM: Message edited by: thegambler ]

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:00 am

Renman, maybe no one is discussing your point about the system not being built around Tebow because no one really believes an NFL team will do that. It may just be too risky.

If nothing else, it'll be a great excuse if his luck runs out.

renman · Post by **renman** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:29 am

Sandman,

I have been on record for weeks saying I don't believe an organization will do it. Though as each week goes by and the Broncos and Tebow win I start wondering if I am wrong.

Whether someone will or wont isn't the point.

The point is we are trying to judge Tebow's ability in this league. We are analyzing him and scrutinizing him and the biggest thing people do it compare him to his peers.

My point is that his peers have a massive advantage (as it relates to stats) in that they are mostly multi-year veterans and are playing in cohesive offensive systems designed for their skill set, that they are very comfortable with, surrounded by personnel designed for and comfortable with the system.

This is (a cohesive offensive system with good/appropriate personnel) at the core of all productive offensive football teams.

Tebow doesn't have this yet.

If he did have it, he certainly would produce better "stats."

Sandman, I certainly question if a team will do this and make this commitment. Though Elway is getting into a situation where his hand may be forced. Do you believe if (I know it is a big if) a team built an offense around his skill set and brought in players to fit that offense, his "stats" would measurably rise?

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:41 am

I'm not sure. If it were that easy, why haven't any teams tried a college style offense in the NFL? IMO, because the NFL game just moves too fast for gimmickry to succeed. Similar to the wildcat offense.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:43 am

Originally posted by renman:

The point I am making is this. What would Tim Tebow's production be if his team committed to him (like all other QB's he is being compared to enjoy) with an offense created for him and personnel around him to fit that offense?

That is my point and it is a point I see no one addressing in this debate. James, this has been discussed already. The Broncos are committing to him now and so far the results have been good, outstanding actually since the Lions game. What they do long-term can't be answered at this time because I'm not sure even they know. Right now, there should be no question they have to go with Tebow as their starting QB for 2012 barring an unforeseen collapse in the next three weeks. Having a full offseason of work should help Tebow improve as a passer. How much he improves remains to be seen. If the Broncos add more talent in the passing game that will also help him.

Honestly, the biggest concern I have looking ahead to 2012 for Denver isn't Tebow but McGahee. His season really came out of nowhere, especially considering his age. Can he duplicate that next season? Tebow at least showed last season he could produce as a starter so it hasn't been a real surprise seeing him do it now.

But what happens going forward may ultimately be determined by how the Broncos finish the season. If they make the playoffs as expected, then Tebow will be the starter in 2012. I can't see any other decision they could make. If that's the case then it's up to him to continue improving and up to Elway to add more talent around him offensively. That will determine how good Tebow ultimately becomes.

[ December 15, 2011, 08:45 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

boutrous11 · Post by **boutrous11** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:46 am

Originally posted by thegambler:
i would put tebow in the same category, fantasy wise, with palmer, schaub and cutler....all would be very nice backups but i'm not sure if i want any of them as a starter all year.

I agree with this. Now if they still had Lloyd, and maybe tried to add another weapon in the offseason for him, I would start to think about bumping him up toward the top tier.

renman · Post by **renman** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:48 am

Tom,

The Broncos are PLAYING him now. They do not have an offensive system that is cohesive and filled with personnel designed for it. They are making it up as they go. A large percentage of Tebow's positive plays he just makes up and ad libs.

My point is supporting your argument. You are debating people who are saying Tebow isn't very good or is overrated or isn't as productive for fantasy as other top QB's.

My point is that it isn't fair to compare him until he is in a creatively designed offense that is built for his style of play like all the other QB's he is compared to are.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:53 am

I don't think the Broncos need to massively overhaul their personnel just because Tebow is the quarterback. They need a good running back (which McGahee has been), a good offensive line (which they have) and standout options in the passing game (which they don't). I don't think their personnel vision has to be different than any other team. They simply utilize some different plays (although Carolina runs a lot of read option as well with Newton).

There's no question a full offseason of work will help everyone involved. It will help the Broncos come up with even more ways to utilize Tebow and it potentially will help Tebow improve as a passer, which ultimately will be critical to his development and a crucial factor in determining how far Denver can go with him as the starting QB.

renman · Post by **renman** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:00 am

Tom,

I am talking about guys who are not guessing out there. I am talking about a creative dynamic offensive approach that is designed for Tebows skill set.

They don't have it.

They have a quickly thrown together offensive approach that is held together with some scotch tape and Tebow then improvises. Obviously there will always be improvisation in his game. But if Tebow is named the starting QB for next year I can guarantee you will see a different offense in place next year and obviously better receiver talent.

It isn't just Tebow out there with a limited offense. His receivers likely have very limited route options. It is a very basic play book and easier to game plan against than it likely would be next year.

Your final paragraph speaks to my point. We are scrutinizing the guy now when he has been thrown into an offense (Fox runs one of the least creative offenses in the sport) that pales in comparison to how things would run with an offense designed for him.

His stats will go up only supporting your point about his abilities in this league and for fantasy.

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Thu Dec 15, 2011 3:02 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by renman:
Tom,

I made a post to you earlier on this page about how Tebow's personal stats/productivity is currently held back by his playing circumstance. I see people debating you trying to compare Tebow to other current QB's and those other QB's have completely different circumstances to play under.

Thoughts? My thoughts are Tebow has some disadvantages compared to other QBs and some advantages. He has a great running game and a stout defense. On the negative side, he's lacking in great talent in the passing game to work with. What baffles me is the obsession on his SOS when it's rarely brought up with other QBs - especially when Tebow is doing things nearly every other QB in the league will not be asked to do this season (i.e. face a team with a Top 15 offense and defense).

Here's the thing I don't get - if Cam Newton or Andy Dalton do well, nobody is calling them "lucky." They're simply being praised for being productive. But Tebow isn't given the same type of praise by some. Instead, he's simply being lucky and some people refuse to acknowledge the possibility that he may be good too simply because he's not doing it in "prototypical" QB fashion. That baffles me, especially as it pertains to fantasy. Again, there isn't a single fantasy owner who should care how his player produces as long as he produces.

And from an NFL perspective, we've reached the point where it's time to stop asking Tebow to win conventionally. As long as he's simply winning, that should be enough. Especially for a team like the Broncos that hasn't been in the playoffs for the past six years. [/QUOTE]There is no justification to call Cam or Dalton "lucky" in terms of their success. They do not continue to have multiple quarter stretches of completley ineffective football, play five minutes of quality football and have their team still have a chance to win. They have both been much more consistent playing the position.

I continue to be amazed how anyone could watch this stretch of Broncos games and say that they haven't had a enormous amount of good fortune involved in these wins. In most instances, when you punt an average of 8 times per game, do nothing offensively for three quarters, your team is going to be blown out each and every week. But, the Broncos TEAM finds a way to win.

Getting back to Dalton. How come this guy isn't getting all the praise that Tebow has? He's a true rookie who had next to no training camp, and was thrown into the starting mix. Up until recently, he had his team in the running for the division title. His team didn't have high expectations this year either. Sure, he has made some rookie mistakes but has looked extremely capable of playing the position and doesn't go through the horrific stretches of football that Tebow does. Dalton torched Baltimore for over 300 yards without his top WR option.

Just seems like Dalton should be getting a bit more props based on the criteria that most of the Tebow lovers set. Afterall, each has led their team to the same number of victories.