My Week 2 Vibes

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 6:22 am

[QUOTE]Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:

KOT, how many top tier QBs had great weeks in week 1 who won't have 4 average or subpar games through week 11?

THE PROBLEM IS RUSS WITH BREES YOU ALREADY KNOW THAT HE HAS HAD ONE OF THOSE SUBPAR GAMES. ACTUALLY HIS GAME WASN'T EVEN SUBPAR IT WAS AWFUL. BULGER AND HASSLE AT LEAST MUSTERED A TD AND NO INT'S. LOOK AT THIS WAY IN THE WCOFF THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME CONSISTS ON THE HIGHEST POINT TOTAL VS BEST RECORD AS YOU KNOW. NOW BY DRAFTING BREES IN THE EARLIER ROUNDS YOU ARE LEAVING GOOD TALENT ON THE BOARD. (NOT THAT BREES ISN'T) BY DRAFTING BREES THAT HIGH AND PLAYING A "BACKUP" QB BECAUSE OF BREES'S BAD GAME YOU ARE BAD POSITION TO WIN THAT WEEK. NOT THAT YOU CAN'T BUT IT IS TOUGHER. NOW IF YOU LOSE WEEK ONE YOU REALLY ONLY CAN AFFORD TWO MORE LOSSES TO CONTEND FOR THE BEST RECORD. 8-3 IS PROBABLY THE WORST YOU CAN BE AND HAVE A CHANCE OF WINNING THE BEST RECORD. NOW YOU ARE IN A POINTS ONLY POSITION TO BE IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME. IF YOUR BACKUP QB DOES NOT HOLD UP IN WEEK ONE YOU ARE FIGHTING A UP HILL BATTLE THAT'S ALL.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 6:30 am

Originally posted by KOTRAX:

THE PROBLEM IS RUSS WITH BREES YOU ALREADY KNOW THAT HE HAS HAD ONE OF THOSE SUBPAR GAMES. ACTUALLY HIS GAME WASN'T EVEN SUBPAR IT WAS AWFUL.That's an added benefit of WCOFF having the draft after the first game. You already know Brees had a dog in Week 1 so you can plan around that and (hopefully) start a QB who will deliver better. You can do that and still keep Brees as your QB1 for the rest of the season. Compare that with any owners in the NFFC, for example, who started Leinart in Week 1 and got stuck with a dog and had no recourse. In the WCOFF, there was recourse. Again, Brees was a major value in our league and in a lot of the leagues I was told about. Getting him in the 7th was a flat-out steal.

The team in our league who got him started McNair this week so they didn't get any help there. They still won their week, though.

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 6:55 am

YEAH IF YOU ARE LUCKY ENOUGH TO WIN YOUR WEEK THEN IT WORKS OUT. HOWEVER A LOSS IS SO HUGE IN THE WCOFF WITH THE 11 WEEK FORMAT. IN THE EXAMPLE OF DRAFTING LEINART YOU STILL DRAFTED HIM IN THE SAME SPOT AND STILL BUILT YOU TEAM ACCORDINGLY. IN THE BREES EXAMPLE IF YOU DRAFTED IN THE THIRD OR FOURTH KNOWING YOU ARE NOT GOING TO START HIM THAT IS TOUGH. I GUESS I WILL ASK YOU THIS TOM. LIKE STEVE SMITH LAST YEAR. WE KNEW AT THE WCOFF DRAFT HE WAS GOING TO MISS AT LEAST THE FIRST TWO WEEKS BECAUSE OF THE HAMSTRING. WHERE DO YOU DRAFT HIM? KNOWING YOU ARE WITHOUT HIM FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 7:00 am

A RB or WR is different in my opinion because you can find a strong QB later in the draft. If you draft Steve Smith, it will be extremely difficult to find someone who can match or exceed his production in the middle or latter stages of your draft. So that explains why Bush, for example, fell at WCOFF this year (though I think it was ridiculous for him to fall into the second round as he did in at least one draft I heard about).

So the situations aren't comparable. If you draft Brees where he was supposed to go you can still protect yourself in Week 1 by finding a good QB in the 8-11 rounds. That isn't going to happen with a RB1 or WR1 in most instances.

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 7:07 am

GOOD POINT ABOUT THE RB1 AND WR1. HOWEVER BY YOU SAYING YOU CAN FIND A STRONG QB LATER IN THE DRAFT IS THE REASON BREES WAS PASSED ON. PEOPLE MAY SAY I'LL JUST DRAFT A LEINART AND DELHOMME TYPE OF QB AND JUST PLAY THE BETTER MATCHUP THE WHOLE YEAR.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 7:08 am

If people passed on Brees because they prefer to wait on QBs that's one thing. However, my point is that those who passed on him just because he had a poor Week 1 made a mistake and handed the owner who did get him later a gigantic gift. If we hadn't taken Palmer in the fourth I guarantee you we would've taken Brees in the fifth.

KOTRAX · Post by **KOTRAX** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 7:14 am

I GUESS THE BEST WAY TO GAUGE THIS MOVE IS TO MONITOR WHO TOOK BUSH, BREES, MCALLISTER AND COLSTON. FIRST DID THEY WIN THIS WEEK? SECOND WHAT DID THEY LEAVE ON THE BOARD THAT MIGHT ALLOWED TO WIN THIS WEEK IF POSSIBLE? AND FINALLY IF THERE WAS A LOSS BECAUSE OF THOSE PLAYERS HOW BIG IS IT IN THE END?

mkrucek · Post by **mkrucek** » Thu Sep 13, 2007 11:38 am

I always look at week 2 to see where my teams are headed. Week 1 can have a lot of crazy things happen. It settles down week 2. You get to see more clearly how teams are going to use players. I think you'll see NO and PHI start to play like we expected, for example. The best teams and players will start to show it, and the bad ones will as well. I think too many people overreact to week 1 and don't trust their evaluations. We'll see soon enough.