Lets End The Skill/Luck Debate Once and For - A While

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:10 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
If you definite "luck" same as I do, which is: anything that is beyond our control as FF owners WOW...that's a pretty open definition...but not unreasonable, since we don't play the games, we only play the odds and speculate.

Interesting.

So our skill lies in adjusting to the constantly there, but constantly changing "luck".

Not bad. Still leaves room for plenty of skill...but not the 100% you claim. (IMO)

Would tracking the past rolls, and predicting/speculating the future rolls of roulette or keno or bingo also be considered 100% skill when you happen to win? [/QUOTE]Lance, the truth is, it makes absolutely no difference what you set the percentages at. I set them at 100/0. Someone else can set them at 70/30 or 50/50 or 73.56/26.44.

It does not matter! Whatever percentage you attribute to luck, or that which we cannot control, the skill part is the only thing that counts. Hense my point that luck is a constant and skill is the only variable.

Btw, roulette or keno or bingo are a completely different debate because these are games of chance where you play against the house, not against other players like we do in FF.

renman · Post by **renman** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:10 am

Gekko,

You said you won 20K in assorted fantasy football leagues over the last 3 years.

What percentage of that was due to luck and what percentage is due to skill?

I would argue it was 75% your good/great skill, and 25% things going your way via luck or good fortune.

Where would you put it?

ps. other people can give their opinion as well on the percentage of luck vs skill.

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:24 am

Originally posted by Renman:
Gekko,

You said you won 20K in assorted fantasy football leagues over the last 3 years.

What percentage of that was due to luck and what percentage is due to skill?

I would argue it was 75% your good/great skill, and 25% things going your way via luck or good fortune.

Where would you put it?

ps. other people can give their opinion as well on the percentage of luck vs skill. For GG= Luck-100%/Skill=0%
For Nag=Luck=0%/Skill=100%.

I agree with your break down James. In three Leagues were I think my teams are strong. Two loses came with me being Second highest scoring team in the League. 2 loses, that if I play any other team would be a Win. Yep I know it happens to everyone. Next year I'll win the close ones.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:27 am

Originally posted by Renman:
Gekko,

You said you won 20K in assorted fantasy football leagues over the last 3 years.

What percentage of that was due to luck and what percentage is due to skill?

I would argue it was 75% your good/great skill, and 25% things going your way via luck or good fortune.

Where would you put it?

ps. other people can give their opinion as well on the percentage of luck vs skill. Renman – I don’t like to put a skill/luck % on fantasy football. If I had to guess, I’d put it in relative terms: Fantasy Football has about 3X the amount of luck in it than fantasy baseball. So if Baseball is 75% skill, then that would put fantasy football around 25%.

How I like to think of skill/luck in fantasy football:
As long as someone has an average knowledge of fantasy football, they will almost be as good as someone who is deemed an “expert”. Pouring in countless hours (25+ a week) into fantasy football gives you some edge over a guy like me who only puts in less than 5 hours a week, but most of your edge is washed away by the luck factor of H2H and the 3 week sprint.

Look at it this way, if I took a guy off the street with no knowledge of fantasy baseball nor fantasy football, and had him start playing both sports, I’d say with 99% confidence he’d win his first league in fantasy football.

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:37 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
Pouring in countless hours (25+ a week) into fantasy football gives you some edge over a guy like me who only puts in less than 5 hours a week, but most of your edge is washed away by the luck factor of H2H and the 3 week sprint.
Doesn't the 25+hour/week guy benefit (or is hurt by) the luck factor of H2H and the 3 week sprint the same way as the 5 hour/week guy? If so, why is his advantage "washed away"?

LOL! Don't have a mind-melt answering that one, GG!

[ November 06, 2009, 01:38 PM: Message edited by: Nag' ]

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:41 am

It's easy. You need the Skill to give yourself a chance to make the Championship Round and the Luck to win it all.

John

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:46 am

Originally posted by Nag':
Doesn't the 25+hour/week guy benefit (or is hurt by) the luck factor of H2H and the 3 week sprint the same way as the 5 hour/week guy? If so, why is his advantage "washed away"?

LOL! Don't have a mind-melt answering that one, GG!

sure he does, but most 25 hour a week guys THINK they have a HUGE skill advantage. that mirage is washed away.

[ November 06, 2009, 01:47 PM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:48 am

Originally posted by Nag':
My only vested interest is that people see me as an honest person who speaks what he believes. You are trying to suggest that the integrity of my opinion is effected by my position as a game operator. This is incorrect, I have proved it by showing a post from 2 years ago. That's all I am being defensive about. Rightfully so, I think. on the FFPC boards, why do you have two different monikers, Alex and Nag?

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:50 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
Doesn't the 25+hour/week guy benefit (or is hurt by) the luck factor of H2H and the 3 week sprint the same way as the 5 hour/week guy? If so, why is his advantage "washed away"?

LOL! Don't have a mind-melt answering that one, GG!

sure he does, but most 25 hour a week guys THINK they have a HUGE skill advantage. that is washed away. [/QUOTE]Well, we aren't talking about what they think their advantege it is. We're talking about what it really is. And whatever that advantage may be in reality, big or small - let's call it Advantage X - why are you suggesting it is washed away by luck if luck effects all players equally?

Or did I misunderstand something?

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:53 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
My only vested interest is that people see me as an honest person who speaks what he believes. You are trying to suggest that the integrity of my opinion is effected by my position as a game operator. This is incorrect, I have proved it by showing a post from 2 years ago. That's all I am being defensive about. Rightfully so, I think. on the FFPC boards, why do you have two different monikers, Alex and Nag? [/QUOTE]I did for a while, because I did not want to have my opinions as a player (or just a regular person, per say) interpreted and confused with those as an operator. Unfortunately, they still were. Now I only use Alex.

[ November 06, 2009, 01:54 PM: Message edited by: Nag' ]