Skill vs Luck?

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 8:52 am

Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
One observation (of mine, as I can only speak for myself) that seems fairly consistent across most competitive gaming situations (Fantasy Sports, Poker, Blackjack, and even Stock Investing) is that the LESS skilled individual truly believes that all outcomes (good or bad) have a much larger luck factor than truly exists.

It (usually) isn't because the less-skilled player is trying to make excuses for his poor performance. It's typically because he actually doesn't recognize the nuances of the competition, and thus he doesn't know how to take advantage of small edges that over time add up to real competitive advantages for the skilled player. What a great post.

As for the NFFC members I've met and hung with, Shawn, Jules, Thomas, GG, and Fisher stick out..along with many others...

[ November 29, 2007, 02:53 PM: Message edited by: JohnZ ]

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 9:03 am

Lou,

Obviously there is some luck involved with stud players getting injured or not getting injured. The skilled player finds other viable options and the unskilled player just complains about being unlucky!

I've done good in some leagues this year but in my Chicago $650 auction I completely tanked. Injuries hurt the team, players performing way under their rankings (Shaun Alexander, Marc Bulger), and I did a lousy job on the waiver wire. I'm getting what I deserved - last place.

One question for you Lou - is taking a defense luck or skill???

I am just kidding you about that July 3rd DC. I see now that you have lost all of your QB's. So is it NO D or QB? Now that was some bad luck.

Wayne

boutrous11 · Post by **boutrous11** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:28 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
If it's 65% luck that would mean someone that doesn't even know football would have a realistic chance of winning a league over an NFFC veteran. Drafting players they don't know, inserting lineups, picking up free agents. Very, very, very unlikely. Maybe if the NFFC vet is snake, otherwise it'll never happen. In my home league, I had two separate guys in two separate years win the league that are borderline retarded when it comes to ffball. they are just rediculously stupid.
I myself have never won my home league, in 16 years. Heck, I've led the league in total points 4 times. I've made the playoffs 6 straight years. Never won the title though.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 5:35 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
[QUOTE]You are correct about the "Quiet Bullshit Machine" that is the magazine and website writers than more often than not know less ans pay less attention to the NFL than you or I do.

~Lance Lance, that's not nice to say about my profession. In fact, a certain editor of a "Quiet Bullshit Machine" magazine is 331 points ahead of you in the NFFC Auction League, yet you have a better record than me!! How does that happen?!!

Just having fun with ya and I hope your team loses this week!! But honestly, it's interesting to see several posts recently about magazine rankings and online ADPs and mock drafts throwing folks off on draft day. Magazine editors obviously use results from the previous seasons to do their rankings well before training camps open and camp battles take place, but later issues and online rankings are usually formed from looking at many mock and league drafts and forming conclusions. In the end, the rankings/ADPs are nothing more than a composite of results with some analysis mixed in, and Lance, I do believe they are done by smart folks who watch as much NFL action as the fantasy players themselves.

The key for astute fantasy players, however, is to take all of this information (and there are 30+ fantasy football magazines out there and countless ff web sites with rankings) in and separate the b.s. from your own knowledge. Smart players take this info in and then create their own rankings based on what they've seen and heard through the years. That's how some folks took Tom Brady 27th overall this year and how some folks took Randy Moss early in the third round.

So take it easy on us poor fantasy writers, Lance. We're just trying to do our job, make a living out of it and even beat some of you folks in these "industry leagues" we like to host. Here's hoping that sportsbettingman loses in that NFFC Magazine Auction League in Week 13!!

Oh, and GO PACK tonight!!

[/QUOTE]I'm taking BillyBoy OUT!

That league (My first EVER FFB auction league) is MINE!

That is why I love the value of a WIN not being thrown out. I can score 60 in my losses...but just enough to win in my wins...to hell with total points being the tell all of FFB.

~Lance

~Lance

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 12:18 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
[QUOTE]You are correct about the "Quiet Bullshit Machine" that is the magazine and website writers than more often than not know less ans pay less attention to the NFL than you or I do.

~Lance Lance, that's not nice to say about my profession. In fact, a certain editor of a "Quiet Bullshit Machine" magazine is 331 points ahead of you in the NFFC Auction League, yet you have a better record than me!! How does that happen?!!

Just having fun with ya and I hope your team loses this week!! But honestly, it's interesting to see several posts recently about magazine rankings and online ADPs and mock drafts throwing folks off on draft day. Magazine editors obviously use results from the previous seasons to do their rankings well before training camps open and camp battles take place, but later issues and online rankings are usually formed from looking at many mock and league drafts and forming conclusions. In the end, the rankings/ADPs are nothing more than a composite of results with some analysis mixed in, and Lance, I do believe they are done by smart folks who watch as much NFL action as the fantasy players themselves.

The key for astute fantasy players, however, is to take all of this information (and there are 30+ fantasy football magazines out there and countless ff web sites with rankings) in and separate the b.s. from your own knowledge. Smart players take this info in and then create their own rankings based on what they've seen and heard through the years. That's how some folks took Tom Brady 27th overall this year and how some folks took Randy Moss early in the third round.

So take it easy on us poor fantasy writers, Lance. We're just trying to do our job, make a living out of it and even beat some of you folks in these "industry leagues" we like to host. Here's hoping that sportsbettingman loses in that NFFC Magazine Auction League in Week 13!!

Oh, and GO PACK tonight!!

[/QUOTE]I'm taking BillyBoy OUT!

That league (My first EVER FFB auction league) is MINE!

That is why I love the value of a WIN not being thrown out. I can score 60 in my losses...but just enough to win in my wins...to hell with total points being the tell all of FFB.

~Lance

~Lance [/QUOTE]Well Lance, I will agree that wins has kept you in it, but when the playoff starts, those who scored points are usually the ones who win out (i.e the "smoke and mirrors show disappears! )

Plus two words......

REX GROSSMAN

Good luck this week, Ryan Grant got you off to a nice start, but I will be doing everything I can to take you down, as with a win for me, I have an outside shot of squeaking in the back door!

Robert Zarzycki · Post by **Robert Zarzycki** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 9:15 am

Since I make my living on luck/skill games here's my four cents...

As a professional poker player I play a ton of tournaments, both online and brick n mortar. Luck plays a great part in the short run, but the long run I can see some statistical support to my long term viability.

For example, I could easily go a month and lose money, or not cash big in all the tournaments I play. But in the long term, over the course of a full year, and many years in my case, I've noticed that I win tournaments more than the average player. My typical win-rate is about one out of every 1/3rd the field. In other words, if I entered a 120 person tourney I will figure to win one out of 40 of them. In a 400 person tourney, I'll figure to win one out of a hundred tries.

Of course, I'll need luck to win each and every tourney. I'll need my good hands to hold up. I'll probably have to suck out once or twice. Hence the luck portion of the game. But play enough tourneys and I'll hit some luck to win enough... but rememeber, it's my skill that allows me to win more than an average # tourneys.

Translating this to fantasy football, especially high stakes games like nffc and wcoff, I'm finding that my win rate is very similar to poker. In in a 12-team league I'll figure to win one out of 4 tries. But when I do win I'll need some sort of luck to pull it off. In a 14-team league such as nffc, I figure/hope to win the league about once every five years or so. So far, since 2002, I'm above pace in wcoff and nffc, but I chalk that up as short term luck.

I've always said this. It takes more skill to win the league and less luck. It takes more luck to win the whole event (six figures) than skill. For those who make the championship playoffs it then becomes a 3-week horse race, and it's pretty much luck to win that.

Bottom line, I see enough of a skill in fantasy football as I do in poker, which means the truly skilled should win about once every five years in NFFC and once every four years in wcoff leagues. Winning the whole enchilada is pretty much 99% luck. -z-

3INTBOY · Post by **3INTBOY** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 9:20 am

I've always said this. It takes more skill to win the league and less luck. It takes more luck to win the whole event (six figures) than skill. For those who make the championship playoffs it then becomes a 3-week horse race, and it's pretty much luck to win that.

Bottom line, I see enough of a skill in fantasy football as I do in poker, which means the truly skilled should win about once every five years in NFFC and once every four years in wcoff leagues. Winning the whole enchilada is pretty much 99% luck. -z-

Nice post Z. How ya been?

I wrote a while back that it would be nice to come up with a way to reduce the "Fantasy Lottery" that are the playoffs in each event.
Butr then again that IS the excitement, the dice roll that you have coming as a participant of the Championship Rounds.

3'

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 9:22 am

Z.... You should write a book

Robert Zarzycki · Post by **Robert Zarzycki** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 9:33 am

Hey Lou and John!

I actually welcome the luck part. First of all, I could get lucky myself. But more important, it's the luck factor that brings everyone back, because anyone can win it! If the fish had no chance to survive then the sea would be empty and the sharks would starve to death.

-z-