Skill vs Luck?

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 10:32 am

Originally posted by Z-Men:
I've always said this. It takes more skill to win the league and less luck. It takes more luck to win the whole event (six figures) than skill. For those who make the championship playoffs it then becomes a 3-week horse race, and it's pretty much luck to win that. That's a very valid statement, IMO.

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Fri Nov 30, 2007 3:26 pm

I've always said this. It takes more skill to win the league and less luck. It takes more luck to win the whole event (six figures) than skill. For those who make the championship playoffs it then becomes a 3-week horse race, and it's pretty much luck to win that.

Bottom line, I see enough of a skill in fantasy football as I do in poker, which means the truly skilled should win about once every five years in NFFC and once every four years in wcoff leagues. Winning the whole enchilada is pretty much 99% luck. -z-

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Robert Zarzycki
Author of Drafting To Win
I wrote a while back that it would be nice to come up with a way to reduce the "Fantasy Lottery" that are the playoffs in each event.
Butr then again that IS the excitement, the dice roll that you have coming as a participant of the Championship Rounds.

3'
Shrink Attack
Member
Member # 470

Member Rated:
posted November 30, 2007 04:32 PM
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quote:
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Originally posted by Z-Men:
I've always said this. It takes more skill to win the league and less luck. It takes more luck to win the whole event (six figures) than skill. For those who make the championship playoffs it then becomes a 3-week horse race, and it's pretty much luck to win that.
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That's a very valid statement, IMO.

I concede it takes luck to win at any level but why do you guys feel there is substantially more luck involved when you are the best team over that 3 or 4 week period?

I understand that it obviously takes more skill to dominate over a longer period of time, like the regular season but all of the teams in the Championship Round have earned their way in. They proved they were more skillful/lucky than the rest and is it really fair to suggest the team that rises to the top over that period (3 weeks or 1 for that matter) won because they were that much more lucky?

Would you say that a team who was hot over a three week period during the regular season was lucky or skilled?

I have stated in the past that I considered these events "Fantasy Footbal Lottery" but did so more because of the amount of the grand prizes and not because the winners were luckier.

Robert Zarzycki · Post by **Robert Zarzycki** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 5:09 am

Several factors why the 3-4 week playoff span inolves way more of a luck factor than the 12-13 week span we play in trying to win our respective leagues.

First, winning the league involves the draft. Having a good draft requires significant skill. So this factor alone pretty much outweights everything else in the season... but I'll add some more to this list.

Second, add/drops is a skill needed in regular season, but this is taken away for the playoffs other than the one final week we have to add/drop. So it's complete luck in that we hope our teams stays healthy. This is especially true for a limited roster such as nffc where it's a toss up to draft back-ups or go with potential sleepers. I remember you had this issue last year Rob, and you even asked for some 2nd and 3rd opinions on who you should add/drop heading into the nffc playoffs. BTW, still waiting on my commission check!!!

Bottom line on this one is that if you can't add/drop then you can't use any skill you might have in managing a fantasy team.

Third, shorter time span = more luck. As the old adage goes "short term luck, long term skill." So having only 3-4 weeks to accumulate points pretty much puts you at the mercy of the fantasy football gods. Whereas during a 12-13 week regular season, you can afford 1-2 really bad weeks because you know if your team is really good it'll overcome it.

These there factors listed above, in my mind, put the luck factor for the playoffs head and shoulders above the luck needed to win the regular season.

Oh yeah, let me throw in a fourth factor. In the regular season you are competing directly against the other members in your league. If you draft a great player you know no one else in the league can get that player. But in the playoffs??? You're at the mercy of all the other great teams, all of which you had no control in limited their roster/supremacy. Maybe one or two leagues had such weak drafters that the skilled owner was able to draft a monster squad, all of this you have no control over since you're not in that league.

Plus you know that there will be a lot of very weak teams in your league, especially if you are good enough to draft the better players before they can get them. So the skilled drafters/mananagers can thrive in individual leagues. But it's all luck once you start playing against teams that were in other leagues.

REmember, when it comes to the nffc/wcoff playoffs, you're playing against the best of the best. Pretty much all of those teams are looking GREAT up to this point. How can anyone's skill possibly overcome this challenge? It can't. It comes down to 99% luck if you ask me.

Let me stress this one point - please, this post is in no disrespect to anyone who has won the nffc/wcoff in past years. Hey, I finished 2nd and 3rd overall in wcoff in consecutive years. So if anything I'm saying I got very lucky, and that is true!

Pretty much I needed a TON of luck to pull that off. But it took more skill to at least make it to the championship round and that's what I'm most proud of...

IMHO. -z-

[ December 01, 2007, 11:26 AM: Message edited by: Z-Men ]

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 6:50 am

My clarification is this: The luck you need to win in the Playoffs is more than the luck you need during the regular season.

BUT...skill is still the predominant factor in both scenarios.

So Z...I can't agree with the statement that winning the playoffs "comes down to 99% luck." There's still considerable skill required to bring your team to the playoffs and to have the team "playoff primed". While those actions don't occur during the playoffs, they are part of the "skill" factor when considering playoff performance.

Also, obviously, making the right lineup decisions during the playoffs is a crucial skill as well.

So even in the playoffs, skill is still more important than luck when considering the Overall Champion, IMO.

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 8:22 am

Originally posted by SNAKE:
...ISHO luck is an inherent part of the game of FF, of ANY game (including the game of life) for that matter, and should be openly acknowledged and accepted...but what is the biggest drag of all is the luck portion of FF that is directly attributed toward injuries, especially an overabundance of them...for some reason, of the many luck factors that are not within an owner's control, The Serpent has always viewed this particular aspect of the luck factor with MUCHO frustration and disdain...SNAKE Drafting Westbrook, Walker, A.Green and V.Davis in first 6 rounds is luck you created all by yourself.

Proven recipe for the highest probability of disaster season.

You created your own luck.

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:34 am

Oh yeah, let me throw in a fourth factor. In the regular season you are competing directly against the other members in your league. If you draft a great player you know no one else in the league can get that player. But in the playoffs??? You're at the mercy of all the other great teams, all of which you had no control in limited their roster/supremacy. Maybe one or two leagues had such weak drafters that the skilled owner was able to draft a monster squad, all of this you have no control over since you're not in that league.

Plus you know that there will be a lot of very weak teams in your league, especially if you are good enough to draft the better players before they can get them. So the skilled drafters/mananagers can thrive in individual leagues. But it's all luck once you start playing against teams that were in other leagues.

REmember, when it comes to the nffc/wcoff playoffs, you're playing against the best of the best. Pretty much all of those teams are looking GREAT up to this point. How can anyone's skill possibly overcome this challenge? It can't. It comes down to 99% luck if you ask me.
Z - the flip side of this is that if your team is able to beat the best of the best, isn't it the better team? Isn't it harder to beat the cream of the crop than the crap you may have had in your league? You are up against the best teams so far that year minus a few who may have skated in because of a good schedule.

Don't roster moves and who you start have MORE of an impact with the shorter 3 week season than over 13 weeks? If you screw up once over that period those points are harder to make up knowing you only have one or two more weeks.

In week 16 last year I started Bruce over Branch. Leading into that week the Seahawks had a better matchup and Branch was going to be the main option for the Seahawks as I think DJax was out (imagine that). Almost every site I looked at had Branch rated higher but I chose Bruce because I felt the Rams were going to go off. They did and I won. Now I understand that the way they went off was beyond my expectations but was that luck or a good move by me?

I remember you had this issue last year Rob, and you even asked for some 2nd and 3rd opinions on who you should add/drop heading into the nffc playoffs. BTW, still waiting on my commission check!!!
I did query my FF friends down the stretch for their input and I appreciate the fact that you folks shared your thoughts with me. It helps to talk some of these things out and get input from folks you respect. Thanks again.

I wanted to buy the poker group dinner this year in Vegas but everyone was staying all over the place and it didn't get off the ground. No communication. I will have to make a trip to AC and play some poker soon. Maybe when you and Larry are playing in one of the tourneys?

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 12:22 pm

Originally posted by SNAKE:
1) disagree as Westbrook is well worth the risk ISHO...

2) agreed as A.Green was drafted for the first and last time ever by The Serpent...

3) disagree as Javon was in his what has been traditionally and historically been deemed "over the hump 2nd year" removed from knee surgery...

4) disagree on Vernon as where is the proof?...

...next...SNAKE As I said before, taking one guy like this can be well worth the risk. No problem with Westbrook.

Javon has a bad injury past and Vernon missed weeks 2-11 last year. Did you really say where's the proof?

All three of those guys are huge risks to take along side Westbrook.

Javon has now missed games 7 different times in his career, and last year was way to feast or famine in the only year he played all games..

Robert Zarzycki · Post by **Robert Zarzycki** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 12:28 pm

I still dont see the skill factor in the 3-week playoff span guys...

Sure it's skill to have built a playoff championship team, but this effort falls under the regular season because that's when it occurred. Once your team makes the playoffs there's pretty much nothing left to do other sit back and root for your players to rack up more points than all the other league winners - and those team owners basically do the same.

Where's the skill in that 3-week span? I emphasive 3-WEEK SPAN because, remember, drafting and add/drops all occurred before the 3-week span, therefore I don't include those skills to be invovled as part of the 3-week span.

The only factor I might see that involves skill during the playoffs is starting lineup decisions. But even that I consider to involve an equal mix of luck and skill. -z-