Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:26 am

Originally posted by TexasHeat:
quote:Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:Rich, I'm also surprised people are just now realizing this. I gave this stat in a thread 2 months ago.

You are right, I'm the idiot here. I should have done the research myself in early Spring. [/QUOTE]Nah, that wasn't my intention at all. I just wanted to sell 1000s of memberships at the right source.

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:29 am

If I knew today that Brady would repeat his 2007 results, I'd have no hesitation in selecting him 1st OVERALL!

His year was dominating. The obvious question is, can he repeat. I, for one, think he falls much closer to the mean.

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:31 am

Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I'm amazed that some seem surprised, shocked and even disappointed to learn "only" 9 out of 26 Brady owners were successful last year in the NFFC. This is significantly more than statistically expected. That 9 should have been 3 or 4. Granted he had an exceptional year, but he's still only 1 of 18 players on each team. Many other players also had stats that were much better than expected. Moss, Welker, Marshall, Engram, Anderson, Grant, Graham, Edwards, etc, etc, etc.
I was actually surprised to find out Brady owners were as successful as they were. I suppose had I just guessed I would have said 6 or 7. So 9 was surprising to me from the other end. Rich, I'm also surprised people are just now realizing this. I gave this stat in a thread 2 months ago.

[/QUOTE]9 out of 26 is relatively low considering the HUGE record breaking numbers by Brady and his 4th round ADP. In comparison, teams who draft LT2 in 2006 in the FIRST round, made the playoffs at a much higher rate - I don't have the exact numbers. This actually speaks volumes to the unimportance of the QB position in this format, which is actually a related topic.

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:36 am

Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:
If I knew today that Brady would repeat his 2007 results, I'd have no hesitation in selecting him 1st OVERALL!

His year was dominating. The obvious question is, can he repeat. I, for one, think he falls much closer to the mean. Then you obviously aren't very excited about Moss's prospects or Welker's either
I agree it's probably a little silly to believe he'll approach 52 TD's again this year. But you could reduce that number by a TD a game and still be able to build a pretty good case for taking him in the 1st round

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:37 am

Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
quote:Originally posted by TexasHeat:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.

But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
I think many here are missing this key point. I remember making this exact argument after owners were drafting Peyton in the first round after his record breaking year - extremely unsuccessfully, I might add.

Last year, 9 of the 26 teams which owned Brady made the NFFC playoffs. 8 first place and 1 second. That's 34%. This is after drafting him in the neighborhood of the 4th round. That means that 66% of the teams who drafted a 50-touchdown QB in the 4th round DID NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Think about that.

Now, let look forward to this year. Assume for a second that Brady will have the same stats as in 2007 - which is a pretty BIG assumption - I think most would agree. Now, if LAST year, 66% of the teams that drafted Brady in the 4th didn't make the playoffs, isn't only logical to assume that this rate or losing will only increase significantly for teams now drafting him in the first round, would you say? I think it's safe to say that this rate would be up around 80% range.

And now lets go a step further and be more realistic about Brady's numbers for this year. If he did come back down to the 4000/32 range, now you have reduced your chances of winning even more after drafting him in the 1st.

To me, this is simple deductive reasoning. There is no reason to make assumptions on the rest of the draft - it likely has no bearing on the overall outcome. Simply look at winning statistics. Can you win by taking Brady in the 1st? If you want to be a stickler for semantics, then I guess the answer is yes. But realistically, it's very difficult. [/QUOTE]Those are some alarming numbers Nag. Thanks for the post... To know that only 34% of the teams that had Brady last year (at a 4th round bargain no less) made the playoffs is amazing to me, and really puts this topic to bed in my mind. Can you win taking him in the first? Yes. Will I try it? Not likely. That's coming from an owner that had to rely on the waiver wire (Derek Anderson) to save his season in '07. There are many good cases made for both sides in this thread, that's what makes these type questions so much fun. [/QUOTE]Nag' went and gave the whole secret away, I of course was busy trying to hide it behind a subscription! LOL

3' [/QUOTE]Sorry about that. You and I have discussed this topic a few years back so I felt compelled to show my genius to the world

.

But if anything, people should know that this is the type of information they will find on BFD and even though I gave this one away for free, there are 100 more they will get from BFD which will be well worth the subscription.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:40 am

Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I'm amazed that some seem surprised, shocked and even disappointed to learn "only" 9 out of 26 Brady owners were successful last year in the NFFC. This is significantly more than statistically expected. That 9 should have been 3 or 4. Granted he had an exceptional year, but he's still only 1 of 18 players on each team. Many other players also had stats that were much better than expected. Moss, Welker, Marshall, Engram, Anderson, Grant, Graham, Edwards, etc, etc, etc.
I was actually surprised to find out Brady owners were as successful as they were. I suppose had I just guessed I would have said 6 or 7. So 9 was surprising to me from the other end. Rich, I'm also surprised people are just now realizing this. I gave this stat in a thread 2 months ago.

[/QUOTE]9 out of 26 is relatively low considering the HUGE record breaking numbers by Brady and his 4th round ADP. In comparison, teams who draft LT2 in 2006 in the FIRST round, made the playoffs at a much higher rate - I don't have the exact numbers. This actually speaks volumes to the unimportance of the QB position in this format, which is actually a related topic. [/QUOTE]From my post above...

"Brady's year was very comparable to the dominating season that LT had in 2006 (in the fact that there wasn't anyone close in points at their respective positions).

In 2006, I believe there were 23 leagues in the NFFC. If I recall correctly, there were 17 or 18 teams who had him that made the playoffs (74% or 78%)."

Agree 100% Nag, in that I am surprised it wasn't higher.

[ June 12, 2008, 11:41 AM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

RiFF · Post by **RiFF** » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:42 am

Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:
quote:Originally posted by RiFF:
I'm amazed that some seem surprised, shocked and even disappointed to learn "only" 9 out of 26 Brady owners were successful last year in the NFFC. This is significantly more than statistically expected. That 9 should have been 3 or 4. Granted he had an exceptional year, but he's still only 1 of 18 players on each team. Many other players also had stats that were much better than expected. Moss, Welker, Marshall, Engram, Anderson, Grant, Graham, Edwards, etc, etc, etc.
I was actually surprised to find out Brady owners were as successful as they were. I suppose had I just guessed I would have said 6 or 7. So 9 was surprising to me from the other end. Rich, I'm also surprised people are just now realizing this. I gave this stat in a thread 2 months ago.

[/QUOTE]9 out of 26 is relatively low considering the HUGE record breaking numbers by Brady and his 4th round ADP. In comparison, teams who draft LT2 in 2006 in the FIRST round, made the playoffs at a much higher rate - I don't have the exact numbers. This actually speaks volumes to the unimportance of the QB position in this format, which is actually a related topic. [/QUOTE]We can agree to disagree on the 9 out of 26 success rate. I believe it's a good testament to Brady's outstanding year.
I do agree that an outstanding RB is more important in this format than an outstanding QB. Hence, I wouldn't consider Brady in the 1st round until all RB's I felt had an opportunity to be outstanding were drafted. Right now I have that at 4 definite and possibly 5 RB's.

pizzatyme · Post by **pizzatyme** » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:44 am

Originally posted by RiFF:
quote:Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:
If I knew today that Brady would repeat his 2007 results, I'd have no hesitation in selecting him 1st OVERALL!

His year was dominating. The obvious question is, can he repeat. I, for one, think he falls much closer to the mean. Then you obviously aren't very excited about Moss's prospects or Welker's either
I agree it's probably a little silly to believe he'll approach 52 TD's again this year. But you could reduce that number by a TD a game and still be able to build a pretty good case for taking him in the 1st round [/QUOTE]I think 36 is a reasonable number.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:47 am

There is a very good chance that Tom Brady will not even be the 2nd best QB in 2008.

That's why they call it a career year...it only happens ONCE in a players entire career.

New England will run more and have to adjust to the NFL having an entire off-season to game plan a way to slow that offense down...and they will.

Just looking at last years playoffs...New England scored 31...then 21...then 14. In my opinion...that is proof that the NFL adjusted to the NE attack.

Add in a player or two getting injured on offense...(be in a lineman or rec, or Brady himself for once)...like most teams, and you have a very low chance at being much better than 5 or 6 other QB's in this coming season, reducing your advantage, when these other 5 or 6 teams with similar numbers from their QB will have drafted that QB in a much later round.

~Lance

[ June 12, 2008, 11:52 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:49 am

Originally posted by RiFF:
Billy,

I believe it's pretty simple. Brady's result in 2007, although exceptional wasn't as dominating as LT's performance in 2006.I disagree Riff. Without looking at the numbers (can't access them right now.... don't ask :rolleyes: ) I think Brady's "lead" on the field was every bit as dominant as LT. The only difference may be that there were other QB's taken in rounds 6-9 (Romo, Roethlisberger, etc.) that produced VERY good numbers, and there weren't any RB's in those rounds in 2006 that far exceeded their value (again, this is without looking into the stats).

[/QB][/quote]
The question we're debating with Brady is not whether he is worthy of the overall #1 pick but rather is it reasonable to consider picking him somewhere in the 1st round. [/QB][/quote]

He is DEFINITELY a first round pick, and I can't fathom ANY scenario where he doesn't go in the first round of the NFFC Main. I agree with you that after 5 or 6 RB's he definitely should be considered. If he falls past 10 (which he may in a few drafts), he becomes a VERY nice pick due to 3RR, and you can still get a couple of "studs" to build around him before "the well goes dry".