Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Jan 11, 2012 2:21 pm

Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
Look at the below few stat lines and tell me that this would excite you from a fantasy perspective:

10/21 for 124
2/8 for 69
9/20 for 104
9/18 for 143
13/29 for 185
6/22 for 60

Those numbers are not good. However, if we're talking about fantasy you're ignoring the real numbers which are:

1. Tebow averaged 23.02 points per game as a starter. That made him QB8 in NFFC scoring.

2. His Week 17 production certainly was a frightening floor but his playoff game production once again represented an elite level ceiling.

From a fantasy perspective, Tebow has gotten it done consistently and at a reliable QB1 level as a starter daating back to last season. Again, he's had 14 career starts and only once has he soiled the bed. That's an extremely impressive ratio.

Whether he can maintain this level of production should he make no improvements as a passer is a legitimate question. It stands to reason he'll make some improvements, though. I'd argue he's made improvements within this season so with a full offseason of work with John Elway, it does seem likely he'll be better next season.

Until we see how much improvement, if any, he makes the best we can do is look at what Tebow has done to this point and decide for ourselves if his Top 10 production as a starter dating back to last season can be maintained in 2012.

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Wed Jan 11, 2012 2:31 pm

Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
Look at the below few stat lines and tell me that this would excite you from a fantasy perspective:

10/21 for 124
2/8 for 69
9/20 for 104
9/18 for 143
13/29 for 185
6/22 for 60

Seriously, this is exactly why we should get excited. After being named the starter he was #10 in fantasy with those numbers. Can you say EPIC room for improvement. It tells me that he needs to be just good enough to keep his job to be a good fantasy option.

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:00 pm

Originally posted by BobSquad:
quote:Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
Look at the below few stat lines and tell me that this would excite you from a fantasy perspective:

10/21 for 124
2/8 for 69
9/20 for 104
9/18 for 143
13/29 for 185
6/22 for 60

Seriously, this is exactly why we should get excited. After being named the starter he was #10 in fantasy with those numbers. Can you say EPIC room for improvement. It tells me that he needs to be just good enough to keep his job to be a good fantasy option. [/QUOTE]Yes, it was his rushing yards and TD's that made many of the above stat lines salvageable fantasy totals. As the year went on, Tebow actually ran the ball less often. I think for the most part defenses have adjusted and you will not see the big rushing yards which will mean he will have to improve as a passer to post those same types of fantasy numbers to be around top 10.

With that being said, I could see him being a TD vulture around the goal line like Cam Newton.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 12:12 am

Originally posted by Al R G:
quote:Originally posted by BobSquad:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
I have an idea though Al... leave the comments about our ignorance out of it, ok? We don't say that Tebowites are ignorant or don't know football or aren't men (like has been said of us).

It's ok to have differing views, but just because we don't agree with you doesn't make us ignorant. Ya know, believe it or not, there IS a chance we're not totally FOS on this guy.

To be fair you repeatedly referred to them as 'the cult' inferring that they were basing their arguments on blind faith.

From the week 6 free agent pickups through week 16 Tebow (23.02) was #10 in average just behind Rivers (23.43). [/QUOTE]Don't bother... The ultimate "numbers" guy will twist his numbers somehow, in order to make Tebow look horrible....under 50% completion percentage... blah blah blah... and Tebow will continue to prove him and all of the doubters wrong. Maybe ignorance isn't the right word.. sorry Sandman.. no offense was intended... Anyways, gotta go oppose the anti-Tebow rally here in Connecticut... see ya Saturday!!! [/QUOTE]Thanks Al. At least you see "cult" as not the same as "ignorant" or "not knowing football" or "not a man".

And I don't need to twist the numbers. Several of us have long-ago admitted that Tebow IS a marginal NFFC starter. I'm not really sure what else everyone wants?

We're NOT going to say "He looks great doing it", or "Can't wait to target him next year", etc. because, whether you or others agree with us, WE don't believe he will sustain his NFFC QB10 status next year. Maybe he falls to 14-18 is our belief. Or worse, he loses his job in the middle of the season. Not worth the risk to us.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 12:14 am

Originally posted by Old School:
I'll take 31.6 yards per completion with 3 total TD's rather than a 65% completion rate with a 7 yards per average and zero TD's. Yeah, I'm sure he'll repeat that again! :rolleyes: Or did you really mean "I really enjoyed the once-in-a-lifetime 30+ average!"???

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 12:21 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
1. Tebow averaged 23.02 points per game as a starter. That made him QB8 in NFFC scoring.I thought Bob just said he was 10th in NFFC, from week 6 til the end? Or are you taking Tebow's average from his 10 starts and comparing that to everyone else's 16 games?

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 1:34 am

Sandman,

I would not be surprised if Tebow laid eggs in his next 7 NFL starts and never saw the field again and likewise I wouldn't be surprised if he was an average NFL qb with top10 fantasy value.

I think that very few hate Tebow but I think many hate what is perceived as the unreasonable 'faith' of his fans.

I think that you (perhaps unintentionally) have tailored your stats to combat this.

My two biggest clues are (1) use of median - of very little value for comparing qb's but the argument for it sounds good and (2) you continue to speak of his point distribution being largely late in games while ignoring the other extreme - in all likelihood, if he keeps his job, his near-zero early quarters will improve.

If a MLB batter goes 1 for 4 every game and the pattern is out-out-out-hit it's correct to assume that his 4th at bat won't always be a hit but you can't forget that his first three may not always be outs.

Bob

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:07 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
1. Tebow averaged 23.02 points per game as a starter. That made him QB8 in NFFC scoring.I thought Bob just said he was 10th in NFFC, from week 6 til the end? Or are you taking Tebow's average from his 10 starts and comparing that to everyone else's 16 games? [/QUOTE]I'm taking his average as a starter and comparing them to every other QB's average as a starter. I don't think it makes any sense to include games where Tebow did not play or where he got one snap (i.e. in the Packers game). The relevant stat is how he fared as a starter.

I also agree with the point that if he could be a Top 10 fantasy QB despite all of his passing issues, it certainly makes him a highly desirable upside target should he make any improvements at all as a passer. He's shown elite QB1 potential both this season and last. If he can make improvements as a passer it's not out of the question that he could ascend to that level more consistently.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:17 am

It's possible my math was off with Tebow's average. I suck at math. I had thought he finished QB11 in the NFFC so it's possible my math was faulty last night.

However, my primary point still stands regardless of whether he ended up QB8 or QB11.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:32 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
1. Tebow averaged 23.02 points per game as a starter. That made him QB8 in NFFC scoring.I thought Bob just said he was 10th in NFFC, from week 6 til the end? Or are you taking Tebow's average from his 10 starts and comparing that to everyone else's 16 games? [/QUOTE]I'm taking his average as a starter and comparing them to every other QB's average as a starter. I don't think it makes any sense to include games where Tebow did not play or where he got one snap (i.e. in the Packers game). The relevant stat is how he fared as a starter.

I also agree with the point that if he could be a Top 10 fantasy QB despite all of his passing issues, it certainly makes him a highly desirable upside target should he make any improvements at all as a passer. He's shown elite QB1 potential both this season and last. If he can make improvements as a passer it's not out of the question that he could ascend to that level more consistently. [/QUOTE]I agree that it's not fair to include games where Tebow wasn't the starter. However, it's also not fair to compare his 10 starts to other QBs 16 starts. The relevant stat isn't just "as a starter, compared to others". Far fairer to compare apples to apples, which means 10 games each. I'm working on the numbers and will post soon.

Also, regarding your expected improvement next year if/when he learns how to throw... you can't just look at the upside and expect improvement. Not every QB gets better each year. Also, if you're going to consider the possibility for improvement due to mechanics work, shouldn't you also consider the possibility of a fallback due to tougher schedule, fewer late-game heroics, defenses figuring out the option, having to face teams in the early part of the season before injuries really take a toll (unlike this year where he didn't play the first 4 games), etc.?

[ January 12, 2012, 08:37 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]