Completely agree. Looking at the last couple years compared to this draft, here are some thoughts on positions picked in the top 14 (by ADP) vs. how many actually finished worthy of their draft status:shark wrote:From the 2 Hole:
The high-end receivers went fast & furious the 1st two rounds of this draft.
2012
In 2011, only 1 QB was drafted in the top 14 (2 in the top 15), yet 5 ended up scoring 468+ points, causing many 2012 drafters to rush for these "surefire" studs - and most of them did deliver, unlike RBs.
Drafted: RB=7, WR=2, QB=4, TE=1
Finished: RB=4, WR=2, QB=3, TE=1
2013
With the influx of new talent at QB, the position was devalued from the prior year. Along with so many capable QBs, WR became a deep position, so many drafters opted to stock up early at ever-risky RB - which didn't work out so well.
Drafted: RB=11, WR=3, QB=0, TE=0
Finished: RB=4, WR=4, QB=0, TE=0
2014 Beckett Magazine Draft
So maybe this year the thinking is:
(a) Early RB picks are too risky (at least after the top 3-4) and won't deliver in most cases.
(b) After the top 3 QBs, there isn't a whole lot of difference; so grab one of them (likely outside the top 14 picks though), or wait, wait, wait.
(c) Top-tier WRs are more reliable and less risky than most RBs, especially beyond the top 3-4 RBs. So unless you're drafting from an early enough spot to land one of the top 3-4 RBs, stock up early at WR.
Drafted: RB=6, WR=7, QB=0, TE=1
Have we gone full-circle back to 2009?
[I sure hope so, as that's the year we won both our Classic and Primetime with the same draft strategy, and of course, some good fortune.]
My goals for this draft were:
1. To land two top-tier WRs first, and maybe even a tier-2 WR in round 3, knowing full well that I wouldn't be drafting any projected RB1s.
2. Grabbing a few mid-round RBs and hoping one or more overachieve.
3. Waiting til round 6-8 for a QB.
But that didn't work out and adjusting on the fly was necessary. I felt like I kept just-missing on getting the value I'd hoped for, forcing me to start some tiers when I'd rather be closing them.
At 2.3, I didn't want to start what I considered tier-2 of the WRs (Jordy/Brown/etc.), so I went with Manning. Even with an expected TD regression, he should still throw in the low 40 passing TDs. IMO, that still puts him 50-70 points ahead of QB3+ (but perhaps with Brees not too far behind him?).
At 3.3, I probably should've closed out my WR tier-2 with Fitz. Though I was still stinging a bit after missing out on Jordy, Brown, Garcon and Cobb there, maybe I should've thought more in terms of "Fitz is still a very good WR2" instead of "But what if last year's 82/954/10 line had a few less TDs?". So I went off-plan and took Spiller. Yes, FJax is still around; though c'mon, at his age, will he really still produce? Is Bryce Brown more of a threat to FJax than to Spiller? Maybe last year's BUF plan to run Spiller into the ground was never a good idea, and maybe he ends up more successful closer to the role he played in 2012, in which he produced 207/1244/6 rushing and 43/459/2 receiving. Even close to 80% of that and I'm fine with this pick. Of course, his health and a better passing offense make that a risky proposition.
At 4.10, I'd just watched a mini-RB run go of Morris, Stacy, Vereen and Ellington. I like Tate at the tail-end of that tier, but I figured [correctly] that he'd make it back to me at 5.3. I definitely didn't want a TE that early either. So I reluctantly started the next WR tier with Floyd (whom I have close to DeSean, Patterson and Edelman - who were also available).
My team from 10th:
QB: PManning, Palmer
WR: Dez, Floyd, Bowe, Amendola, Dobson, MAustin, Britt
RB: Spiller/Bryce, Tate/Crowell, Sproles, Wilson, Dunbar
TE: Pitta (possibly the only value pick I made, at 9.3), Fleener
DST: CLE
K: Zuerlein
