Here's Tom's FBG Team: Have At It

bald is beautiful · Post by **bald is beautiful** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 3:00 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Bald is Beautiful:
Helpful point Tom - Don't try to argue with a guy who WINS big $$$ every year. I have a ton of respect for Wayne but that doesn't mean I'm going to back down from my beliefs. No reason why I should. [/QUOTE]Looks like maybe you should have. Rich & Wayne provided sound factual analysis and were right.

You can't blame Manning's injury either. We all knew he was injured going into the drafts.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 3:18 am

Yup, Wayne has been a disappointment. And yes, it's obvious the severity of Manning's injury has played a critical role. Had I known at the time of the draft that Peyton was going to miss the entire season I would not have selected Wayne. At that time, the thinking was Peyton may miss the start of the season but would be back eventually. That is why I made the pick - with the belief that Peyton would play this season. I even stated quite clearly that the value of the pick was entirely contingent on Manning's health.

Unfortunately, I forgot the crystal ball I needed which would have allowed me to see that Manning's injury was going to prove to be season-ending. That's what I get for leaving it at home.

I don't feel bad for the pick even though it hasn't worked out and I stand by everything I posted in this thread. Had Peyton played at all this season, there's every reason to believe Wayne's production would have been worthy of the spot where I selected him. I see no reason whatsoever to question that. Unfortunately, Manning has been hurt, Collins was an epic failure and while Painter has been an upgrade over Collins, he obviously isn't Peyton. So Wayne's value has, understandably, taken a hit.

The good news here is Painter has provided a boost for the Colts' passing game and did a better job of getting the ball to Wayne last week. We'll see if that is a sign of things to come.

Ultimately, though, we're all going to get some wrong and some right each season. I know a lot of really smart people who work in this industry and/or play this game but I've yet to meet someone who is batting 100% every year with their preseason analysis. If you know that person, Jack, I'd love to meet him. I'm guessing we all would.

[ October 13, 2011, 09:19 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

particra · Post by **particra** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 3:29 am

As some predicted, the real victim in all this has been Dallas Clark. He's barely even rosterable at this point. 22nd in TE points in the FFPC.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 3:31 am

Originally posted by Hells Satans:
As some predicted, the real victim in all this has been Dallas Clark. He's barely even rosterable at this point. 22nd in TE points in the FFPC. Yup. I wasn't very high on Austin Collie this season but he's lost all of his fantasy value without Manning. I've always liked Garcon so I'm not surprised he's doing well with Painter although the level of production has been crazy the last two games. And keep in mind, Painter missed him for what should have been a long TD in Week 3. That would've made three straight games with long TD receptions. It'll be interesting to see if the Bengals can slow him down on Sunday.

The mistake I did make was bailing on the Colts' passing game after Week 2 (except for Wayne and to a much lesser extent, Clark). But that was all about how awful Collins was. I didn't rule out the possibility that Painter would be better (hard to imagine anyone being worse), but I misjudged how much of an upgrade he would provide.

[ October 13, 2011, 09:33 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

bald is beautiful · Post by **bald is beautiful** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 4:23 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Yup, Wayne has been a disappointment. And yes, it's obvious the severity of Manning's injury has played a critical role. Had I known at the time of the draft that Peyton was going to miss the entire season I would not have selected Wayne. At that time, the thinking was Peyton may miss the start of the season but would be back eventually. That is why I made the pick - with the belief that Peyton would play this season. I even stated quite clearly that the value of the pick was entirely contingent on Manning's health.

Unfortunately, I forgot the crystal ball I needed which would have allowed me to see that Manning's injury was going to prove to be season-ending. That's what I get for leaving it at home.

I don't feel bad for the pick even though it hasn't worked out and I stand by everything I posted in this thread. Had Peyton played at all this season, there's every reason to believe Wayne's production would have been worthy of the spot where I selected him. I see no reason whatsoever to question that. Unfortunately, Manning has been hurt, Collins was an epic failure and while Painter has been an upgrade over Collins, he obviously isn't Peyton. So Wayne's value has, understandably, taken a hit.

The good news here is Painter has provided a boost for the Colts' passing game and did a better job of getting the ball to Wayne last week. We'll see if that is a sign of things to come.

Ultimately, though, we're all going to get some wrong and some right each season. I know a lot of really smart people who work in this industry and/or play this game but I've yet to meet someone who is batting 100% every year with their preseason analysis. If you know that person, Jack, I'd love to meet him. I'm guessing we all would. You get so defensive and stubborn about your picks. lol I knew raising this thread would bring things out like your "crystal ball" and "100% right" comments.

Manning's health, Wayne's age, and his slow down last year were all pre-season indicators which all played a role in making calculated selections about Wayne. If you downplay or ignore those, this is what happens. If you wanted to focus on Manning's and Wayne's history, fine, you can do that. In the past, I've focused on the facts I've liked and either ignored negative facts or downgraded them in my own mind in the preseason. One thing I've learned is to make darn sure I'm being objective about players or I will pay the price. But if you want to be stubborn, that is your right.

Of course no one is right 100% of the time, so why even say that. I drafted Jacoby Ford in just about every draft this year - that has been a disaster. It happens to all of us.

bald is beautiful · Post by **bald is beautiful** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 4:28 am

Originally posted by Hells Satans:
As some predicted, the real victim in all this has been Dallas Clark. He's barely even rosterable at this point. 22nd in TE points in the FFPC. Other than Reggie Wayne, here's another good example. Knowing Manning's health issues, where was it worthwhile to take the calculated risk on Dallas Clark? I took the plunge in the 7th round of the FFPC Big Payback league. I figured he was worth the risk there with 1.5 ppg in the FFPC even if Manning was out long term. I was wrong.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 4:39 am

Jack, I'm not being defensive or stubborn. I'm merely replying to your post. Am I not allowed to do that? Your reply is rather curious and I'm not sure why you're so fixated on my drafting Reggie Wayne in one league. If you want to view it as a blunder on my part, so be it. I stated quite clearly in this thread why I picked him and I stand by those statements. As I said, no one is right all the time but if you are finding entertainment value in my selection of Reggie Wayne in one league that's all fine and good. While you do that, I'll sit back and enjoy the aggressive decision I made to take Jimmy Graham in my big money league and how well that's worked out so far.

Bottom line is I see no reason to back off the statements I made about Wayne. There was zero indication before the season that he would suffer a major decline with Peyton Manning at quarterback. The day after I picked him, I said Wayne's value was entirely contingent on Manning's health. Had I known at that time Peyton would likely miss the entire season I would not have drafted Wayne. If you want to call me out for drafting him or for not seeing something with Manning's health that no one else saw at the time, that's your right and I'll plead guilty to not knowing Peyton was going to miss the entire season. But if you are going to call me out, you should at least allow me to offer a rebuttal without taking shots at me for making it. Just my two cents there.

The funny thing to me is the biggest mistake I made in this league wasn't drafting Reggie Wayne, it was drafting Jamaal Charles. I had concerns about him in the offseason but ignored them. He promptly got hurt in Week 1 and that, combined with Miles Austin getting hurt, pretty much cost me any chance of staying in the hunt in this league. Reggie Wayne is the least of my concerns on this team.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 4:43 am

Originally posted by Bald is Beautiful:
quote: In the past, I've focused on the facts I've liked and either ignored negative facts or downgraded them in my own mind in the preseason. One thing I've learned is to make darn sure I'm being objective about players or I will pay the price. [/QB][/QUOTE]This is excellent advice, and something I got away from this year. Being objective about the player is something I am going to put a great deal into this off season for next year, as it is something I didn't do a good job at this past season.

Like Jack said, we all are going to miss on players, the key is not missing on too many.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 4:44 am

As far as Clark, I'm not sure where he ranks in FBG's scoring but he's TE23 in the NFFC. There's no denying he hasn't come anywhere close to meeting his draft day value, unless you got him in the final round. It's been an absolute disaster for Clark, regardless of whether it's been Collins or Painter at QB.

Eddiejag · Post by **Eddiejag** » Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:06 am

Originally posted by Bald is Beautiful:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Al R G:
[qb]
1. Reggie Wayne. But the opportunity to get a potential Top 5 PPR WR in the third was crazy value. I couldn't pass on him.
Reggie's done as a top 5 WR. Recognizing the moment when a player is slowing down and losing skills is vital to winning. [/QUOTE]Sorry Tom but your being awful defense now.You went up and down with this Wayne pick with Riff if i rember right.And just because your team stinks and your answer is Wayne is the least of my promblems.
Come on MAN Jack Gotcha