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Too early to forcast a winner based on the draft alone...but here are some things I have noticed in my first three years at the NFFC.

1. QB is the most important position. This year there were 4 QBs that are a cut above at draft time (notice I didn't say for the season). Brady, Manning, Romo, Breeze. If you did not get one of these guys, then you need to get lucky to make the playoffs (read you "guessed right"). And, you may have "guessed right"...I certainly don't have a crystal ball. But, anyone who does their homework knows that you need a solid QB and these are the best week in, week out guys. If you have one of these guys on your roster, you get it! You are in position and are just hoping something unexpected doesn't happen as opposed to hoping something works out better than predicted at the position. This may be a function of recent times and old schoolers may be stuck in the "former times" when a top four RB was a must.

2. A top RB is still very important, but only if it is matched with RB depth at the second RB position. You simply have to plan on losing an RB for at least some of the season.

3. You have to have four starting recievers who lead their team (or very close second) in fantasy points and pay close attention to match-ups. You have to be willing to bench your 3rd best WR on any given week if your 4 or 5 has a better match-up. This is easier said than done and in my opinion it only applies to the WR position.

4. Defenses and Kickers should never be depended upon. If you are happy that you have the top rated DF or PK and think it makes up for a 2nd RB or a poor choice at TE, you have probobly already lost.

5. You need a reliable TE and a back-up. TEs are important because you have to play one each week. Like a QB, you have to get it right so you need a TE that is good week in and week out.

So, that's my take and I could be wrong. But, this is the lists of "musts" I put together going into this year's draft. It was the first time I entered with a comprehensive plan...the season will reveal its pros and cons...but I am interested in your takes as well. And, I plan on tweaking it every year until I get it right...LOL!

Cheers!

If you took one of those QB's early though, the odds were pretty good you chased the rest of your draft and are deficient either at RB depth or WR depth.

I agree they are head and shoulders above the rest, but Brady is the only one who should be going in the first 2 rounds IMO. Romo with the way he played last year at years end & Manning with his bad knee and banged up line have no business going that early.

I think the bigger key is figure out who will be that Top 10 QB that you could snag in the 4-8 rounds.

[ September 02, 2008, 12:03 AM: Message edited by: Erok ]

Originally posted by Erok:
If you took one of those QB's early though, the odds were pretty good you chased the rest of your draft and are deficient either at RB depth or WR depth.

I agree they are head and shoulders above the rest, but Brady is the only one who should be going in the first 2 rounds IMO. Romo with the way he played last year at years end & Manning with his bad knee and banged up line have no business going that early.

I think the bigger key is figure out who will be that Top 10 QB that you could snag in the 4-8 rounds. Agree...except maybe "the way he played last year" part regarding Romo. Romo may be a less than stellar QB from a Head Coach perspective...but fantasy football rewards guys who throw a pick-6 interception and then need to throw even more to make up for it! A healthy Romo is just fine to lead a fantasy squad.

Nice stuff Blue Foot!

~Lance

Originally posted by Blue_Foot:
Too early to forcast a winner based on the draft alone...but here are some things I have noticed in my first three years at the NFFC.

1. QB is the most important position. This year there were 4 QBs that are a cut above at draft time (notice I didn't say for the season). Brady, Manning, Romo, Breeze. If you did not get one of these guys, then you need to get lucky to make the playoffs (read you "guessed right"). And, you may have "guessed right"...I certainly don't have a crystal ball. But, anyone who does their homework knows that you need a solid QB and these are the best week in, week out guys. If you have one of these guys on your roster, you get it! You are in position and are just hoping something unexpected doesn't happen as opposed to hoping something works out better than predicted at the position. This may be a function of recent times and old schoolers may be stuck in the "former times" when a top four RB was a must.

2. A top RB is still very important, but only if it is matched with RB depth at the second RB position. You simply have to plan on losing an RB for at least some of the season.

3. You have to have four starting recievers who lead their team (or very close second) in fantasy points and pay close attention to match-ups. You have to be willing to bench your 3rd best WR on any given week if your 4 or 5 has a better match-up. This is easier said than done and in my opinion it only applies to the WR position.

4. Defenses and Kickers should never be depended upon. If you are happy that you have the top rated DF or PK and think it makes up for a 2nd RB or a poor choice at TE, you have probobly already lost.

5. You need a reliable TE and a back-up. TEs are important because you have to play one each week. Like a QB, you have to get it right so you need a TE that is good week in and week out.

So, that's my take and I could be wrong. But, this is the lists of "musts" I put together going into this year's draft. It was the first time I entered with a comprehensive plan...the season will reveal its pros and cons...but I am interested in your takes as well. And, I plan on tweaking it every year until I get it right...LOL!

Cheers!

i agree with most of these assessments, particularly #2. In this particular format with a huge bench, i discount #1 and 4, however. For QBs and DEF, I think its a better strategy to have 3 of each and play matchups, as one of the 3 will almost always have a favorable advantage. For example, delhomme garrard and favre, none of whom should cost a high pick. And DEF matchups are even easier to predict, as it would be extremely rare for a team like chicago baltimore miami, etc to put up a lot of points. I must also add that playing matchups should only work assuming you have respectable options (at least borderline starters). IMO the deep bench allows you to load up on RB and WR early, and then match the production of the top tier QBs and defenses by not having to ever deal with bad matchups, or being forced to start a Vince Young type of player during a bye week.
And as for kickers, yeah, they're useless..a total crapshoot

Originally posted by Erok:
If you took one of those QB's early though, the odds were pretty good you chased the rest of your draft and are deficient either at RB depth or WR depth.

I agree they are head and shoulders above the rest, but Brady is the only one who should be going in the first 2 rounds IMO. Romo with the way he played last year at years end & Manning with his bad knee and banged up line have no business going that early.

I think the bigger key is figure out who will be that Top 10 QB that you could snag in the 4-8 rounds. I agree with this assessment. If you snagged one of those 4 QB's you took them in rounds 1,2,3. That leaves you lacking in a quality WR or RB. So you will be lacking depth somewhere. So I guess since we didn't have one of those 4 QB's last year we got "lucky" and won our league and the 100k right?? We didn't get one of them this year either so i guess we need to get "lucky" again. How about you post your team so we can see what a "playoff" team looks like??

I'm relaxed. I just think it's funny how everyone wants to throw their opinion out on what it takes to be a "winning team", you included. When fact of the matter is nobody really knows or else they would win it all every single year. There is no single plan that will get you to the playoffs. Solid drafting, working the waiver wire correctly and some luck will get it done. Everything needs to be aligned for it to happen. So go back to lurking in your tall blades of grass and crawl in a hole so I can come cover it up with dirt.

Originally posted by Blue_Foot:
3. You have to have four starting recievers who lead their team (or very close second) in fantasy points and pay close attention to match-ups. You have to be willing to bench your 3rd best WR on any given week if your 4 or 5 has a better match-up. This is easier said than done and in my opinion it only applies to the WR position.Devin Hester? check
Justin Gage? check
Reggie Williams? check
DeSean Jackson? check

Championship!